| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(author)
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- 2020
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 3. |
- Bergner, Jenny, et al.
(author)
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Astrochemistry With the Orbiting Astronomical Satellite for Investigating Stellar Systems
- 2022
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In: Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-987X. ; 8
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Chemistry along the star- and planet-formation sequence regulates how prebiotic building blocks—carriers of the elements CHNOPS—are incorporated into nascent planetesimals and planets. Spectral line observations across the electromagnetic spectrum are needed to fully characterize interstellar CHNOPS chemistry, yet to date there are only limited astrochemical constraints at THz frequencies. Here, we highlight advances to the study of CHNOPS astrochemistry that will be possible with the Orbiting Astronomical Satellite for Investigating Stellar Systems (OASIS). OASIS is a NASA mission concept for a space-based observatory that will utilize an inflatable 14-m reflector along with a heterodyne receiver system to observe at THz frequencies with unprecedented sensitivity and angular resolution. As part of a survey of H2O and HD toward ∼100 protostellar and protoplanetary disk systems, OASIS will also obtain statistical constraints on the emission of complex organics from protostellar hot corinos and envelopes as well as light hydrides including NH3 and H2S toward protoplanetary disks. Line surveys of high-mass hot cores, protostellar outflow shocks, and prestellar cores will also leverage the unique capabilities of OASIS to probe high-excitation organics and small hydrides, as is needed to fully understand the chemistry of these objects.
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| 4. |
- Schöier, Fredrik, et al.
(author)
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The Distribution of H13CN in the Circumstellar Envelope around IRC+10216
- 2007
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In: The Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 670:1, s. 766-773
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- H13CN J=8-->7 submillimeter line emission produced in the circumstellar envelope around the extreme carbon star IRC+10216 has been imaged at subarcsecond angular resolution using the SMA. Supplemented by a detailed excitation analysis, the average fractional abundance of H13CN in the inner wind (<~5×1015 cm) is estimated to be about 4×10-7, translating into a total HCN fractional abundance of 2×10-5 using the isotopic ratio 12C/13C = 50. Multitransitional single-dish observations further require the H13CN fractional abundance to remain more or less constant in the envelope out to a radius of ~4×1016 cm, where the HCN molecules are effectively destroyed, most probably, by photodissociation. The large amount of HCN present in the inner wind provides effective line cooling that can dominate over that generated from CO line emission. It is also shown that great care needs to be taken in the radiative transfer modeling where nonlocal, and non-LTE, effects are important and where the radiation field from thermal dust grains plays a major role in exciting the HCN molecules. The amount of HCN present in the circumstellar envelope around IRC+10216 is consistent with predicted photospheric values based on equilibrium chemical models and indicates that any nonequilibrium chemistry occurring in the extended pulsating atmosphere has no drastic net effect on the fractional abundance of HCN molecules that enters the outer envelope. It further suggests that few HCN molecules are incorporated into dust grains.
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| 5. |
- Matthews, Brenda C., et al.
(author)
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THE AU MIC DEBRIS DISK : FAR-INFRARED AND SUBMILLIMETER RESOLVED IMAGING
- 2015
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 811:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present far-infrared and submillimeter maps from the Herschel Space Observatory and the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope of the debris disk host star AU Microscopii. Disk emission is detected at 70, 160, 250, 350, 450, 500, and 850 mu m. The disk is resolved at 70, 160, and 450 mu m. In addition to the planetesimal belt, we detect thermal emission from AU Mic's halo for the first time. In contrast to the scattered light images, no asymmetries are evident in the disk. The fractional luminosity of the disk is 3.9 x 10(-4) and its milimeter-grain dust mass is 0.01 M-circle dot (+/- 20%). We create a simple spatial model that reconciles the disk spectral energy distribution as a blackbody of 53 +/- 2K (a composite of 39 and 50 K components) and the presence of small (non-blackbody) grains which populate the extended halo. The best-fit model is consistent with the birth ring model explored in earlier works, i.e., an edge-on dust belt extending from 8.8 to 40 AU, but with an additional halo component with an r(-1.5) surface density profile extending to the limits of sensitivity (140 AU). We confirm that AU Mic does not exert enough radiation force to blow out grains. For stellar mass-loss rates of 10-100 times solar, compact (zero porosity) grains can only be removed if they are very small; consistently with previous work, if the porosity is 0.9, then grains approaching 0.1 mu m can be removed via corpuscular forces (i.e., the stellar wind).
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| 6. |
- Sakamoto, Kazushi, et al.
(author)
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Deeply Buried Nuclei in the Infrared-luminous Galaxies NGC 4418 and Arp 220. I. ALMA Observations at lambda=1.4-0.4 mm and Continuum Analysis
- 2021
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 923:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We observed with Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array three deeply buried nuclei in two galaxies, NGC 4418 and Arp 220, at similar to 0.'' 2 resolution over a total bandwidth of 67 GHz in f(rest) = 215-697 GHz. Here we (1) introduce our program, (2) describe our data reduction method for wide-band, high-resolution imaging spectroscopy, (3) analyze in visibilities the compact nuclei with line forests, (4) develop a continuum-based estimation method of dust opacity and gas column density in heavily obscured nuclei, which uses the buried galactic nuclei (BGN) model and is sensitive to log (NH2/cm(-2)) similar to 25-26 at lambda similar to 1 mm, and (5) present the continuum data and diagnosis of our targets. The three continuum nuclei have major-axis FWHMs of similar to 0.'' 1-0.'' 3 (20-140 pc) aligned to their rotating nuclear disks of molecular gas. However, each nucleus is described better with two or three concentric components than with a single Gaussian. The innermost cores have sizes of 0.'' 05-0.'' 10 (8-40 pc), peak brightness temperatures of similar to 100-500 K at 350 GHz, and more fractional flux at lower frequencies. The intermediate components correspond to the nuclear disks. They have axial ratios of approximate to 0.5 and hence inclinations greater than or similar to 60 degrees. The outermost elements include the bipolar outflow from Arp 220W. We estimate 1 mm dust opacity of tau(d, 1 mm )approximate to 2.2, 1.2, and less than or similar to 0.4, respectively, for NGC 4418, Arp 220W, and Arp 220E. The first two correspond to log(N-H/cm(2)) similar to 26 for conventional dust-opacity laws, and hence the nuclei are highly Compton thick.
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| 7. |
- Sakamoto, Kazushi, et al.
(author)
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Deeply Buried Nuclei in the Infrared-luminous Galaxies NGC 4418 and Arp 220. II. Line Forests at lambda=1.4-0.4 mm and Circumnuclear Gas Observed with ALMA
- 2021
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 923:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present the line observations in our Atacama Millimeter-Submillimeter Array imaging spectral scan toward three deeply buried nuclei in NGC 4418 and Arp 220. We cover 67 GHz in f (rest) = 215-697 GHz at about 0.'' 2 (30, 80 pc) resolution. All the nuclei show dense line forests; we report our initial line identification using 55 species. The line velocities generally indicate gas rotation around each nucleus, tracing nuclear disks of similar to 100 pc in size. We confirmed the counter-rotation of the nuclear disks in Arp 220 and that of the nuclear disk and the galactic disk in NGC 4418. While the brightest lines exceed 100 K, most of the major lines and many C-13 isotopologues show absorption against even brighter continuum cores of the nuclei. The lines with higher upper-level energies, including those from vibrationally excited molecules, tend to arise from smaller areas, indicating radially varying conditions in these nuclei. The outflows from the two Arp 220 nuclei cause blueshifted line absorption below the continuum level. The absorption mostly has small spatial offsets from the continuum peaks to indicate the outflow orientations. The bipolar outflow from the western nucleus is also imaged in multiple emission lines, showing the extent of similar to 1 '' (400 pc). Redshifted line absorption against the nucleus of NGC 4418 indicates either an inward gas motion or a small collimated outflow slanted to the nuclear disk. We also resolved some previous confusions due to line blending and misidentification.
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| 8. |
- Walker, Christopher K., et al.
(author)
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Orbiting Astronomical Satellite for Investigating Stellar Systems (OASIS): “Following water from galaxies, through protostellar systems, to oceans”
- 2021
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In: Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering. - : SPIE. - 0277-786X .- 1996-756X. ; 11820
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Orbiting Astronomical Satellite for Investigating Stellar Systems (OASIS) is a space-based, MIDEX-class mission concept that employs a 17-meter diameter inflatable aperture with cryogenic heterodyne receivers, enabling high sensitivity and high spectral resolution (resolving power >106) observations at terahertz frequencies. OASIS science is targeting submillimeter and far-infrared transitions of H2O and its isotopologues, as well as deuterated molecular hydrogen (HD) and other molecular species from 660 to 80 µm, which are inaccessible to ground-based telescopes due to the opacity of Earth’s atmosphere. OASIS will have >20x the collecting area and ~5x the angular resolution of Herschel, and it complements the shorter wavelength capabilities of the James Webb Space Telescope. With its large collecting area and suite of terahertz heterodyne receivers, OASIS will have the sensitivity to follow the water trail from galaxies to oceans, as well as directly measure gas mass in a wide variety of astrophysical objects from observations of the ground-state HD line. OASIS will operate in a Sun-Earth L1 halo orbit that enables observations of large numbers of galaxies, protoplanetary systems, and solar system objects during the course of its 1-year baseline mission. OASIS embraces an overarching science theme of “following water from galaxies, through protostellar systems, to oceans.” This theme resonates with the NASA Astrophysics Roadmap and the 2010 Astrophysics Decadal Survey, and it is also highly complementary to the proposed Origins Space Telescope’s objectives.
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