| 1. |
- De Frenne, Pieter, et al.
(författare)
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Biological Flora of the British Isles : Milium effusum
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0022-0477 .- 1365-2745. ; 105:3, s. 839-858
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- 1. This account presents information on all aspects of the biology of Milium effusum L. (Wood Millet) that are relevant to understanding its ecological characteristics and behaviour. The main topics are presented within the standard framework of the Biological Flora of the British Isles: distribution, habitat, communities, responses to biotic factors, responses to environment, structure and physiology, phenology, floral and seed characters, herbivores and disease, history, and conservation.2. The grass Milium effusum is a common species of mature woodland in central and southern England, but is less common in the wetter parts of northern England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland. Worldwide, the species is native to many temperate, boreal, subarctic and subalpine parts of the northern hemisphere: from eastern North America across most of Europe (excluding Mediterranean climates) to the Ural Mountains and Black Sea, extending eastwards to the Himalaya, Korea and Japan.3. Wood Millet is a shade-tolerant, relatively tall grass (up to 1.8 m) producing up to 700 caryopses per individual. It is characteristic of temperate deciduous woodland, but can also occur in other woodland and forest types and even in scrub, alpine meadows, along railways and roads, and on rocks. In woods, it is one of the most conspicuous plants of the herb layer in the early summer after the disappearance of spring flowering species. While the species is generally considered an ancient woodland indicator in England and western Europe, it is also known to colonize secondary, post-agricultural forests relatively rapidly in other areas such as Denmark, southern Sweden and Poland.4. The species has a wide amplitude in terms of soil acidity and nutrient availability, but predominantly grows on soils of intermediate soil fertility and soil pH and with high organic matter concentration. However, M. effusum can tolerate large quantities of tree-leaf litter on the forest floor and is able to grow on very acidic soils.5. Changes in land use, climate, densities of large herbivores and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen are having effects on populations of Wood Millet. Significant responses of the life-history traits and population characteristics have been detected in response to environmental variation and to experimental treatments of temperature, nutrients, light and acidity. In many of its habitats across its range, M. effusum is currently becoming more frequent. During the last century, its mean elevation of occurrence in upland areas of Europe has also increased by several hundreds of metres. Typically, management actions are directed towards the conservation of its main habitat type (e.g. ancient woodlands of the Milio-Fagetum association) rather than to the species specifically.
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| 2. |
- De Frenne, Pieter, et al.
(författare)
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Interregional variation in the floristic recovery of post-agricultural forests
- 2011
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Ingår i: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0022-0477 .- 1365-2745. ; 99:2, s. 600-609
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- 1. Worldwide, the floristic composition of temperate forests bears the imprint of past land use for decades to centuries as forests regrow on agricultural land. Many species, however, display significant interregional variation in their ability to (re)colonize post-agricultural forests. This variation in colonization across regions and the underlying factors remain largely unexplored. 2. We compiled data on 90 species and 812 species x study combinations from 18 studies across Europe that determined species' distribution patterns in ancient (i.e. continuously forested since the first available land use maps) and post-agricultural forests. The recovery rate (RR) of species in each landscape was quantified as the log-response ratio of the percentage occurrence in post-agricultural over ancient forest and related to the species-specific life-history traits and local (soil characteristics and light availability) and regional factors (landscape properties as habitat availability, time available for colonization, and climate). 3. For the herb species, we demonstrate a strong (interactive) effect of species' life-history traits and forest habitat availability on the RR of post-agricultural forest. In graminoids, however, none of the investigated variables were significantly related to the RR. 4. The better colonizing species that mainly belonged to the short-lived herbs group showed the largest interregional variability. Their recovery significantly increased with the amount of forest habitat within the landscape, whereas, surprisingly, the time available for colonization, climate, soil characteristics and light availability had no effect. 5. Synthesis. By analysing 18 independent studies across Europe, we clearly showed for the first time on a continental scale that the recovery of short-lived forest herbs increased with the forest habitat availability in the landscape. Small perennial forest herbs, however, were generally unsuccessful in colonizing post-agricultural forest even in relatively densely forested landscapes. Hence, our results stress the need to avoid ancient forest clearance to preserve the typical woodland flora.
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| 3. |
- De Frenne, Pieter, et al.
(författare)
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Microclimate moderates plant responses to macroclimate warming
- 2013
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 110:46, s. 18561-18565
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent global warming is acting across marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems to favor species adapted to warmer conditions and/or reduce the abundance of cold-adapted organisms (i.e., thermophilization of communities). Lack of community responses to increased temperature, however, has also been reported for several taxa and regions, suggesting that climatic lags may be frequent. Here we show that microclimatic effects brought about by forest canopy closure can buffer biotic responses to macroclimate warming, thus explaining an apparent climatic lag. Using data from 1,409 vegetation plots in European and North American temperate forests, each surveyed at least twice over an interval of 12-67 y, we document significant thermophilization of ground-layer plant communities. These changes reflect concurrent declines in species adapted to cooler conditions and increases in species adapted to warmer conditions. However, thermophilization, particularly the increase of warm-adapted species, is attenuated in forests whose canopies have become denser, probably reflecting cooler growing-season ground temperatures via increased shading. As standing stocks of trees have increased in many temperate forests in recent decades, local microclimatic effects may commonly be moderating the impacts of macroclimate warming on forest understories. Conversely, increases in harvesting woody biomass-e.g., for bioenergy-may open forest canopies and accelerate thermophilization of temperate forest biodiversity.
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| 4. |
- De Frenne, Pieter, et al.
(författare)
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Plant movements and climate warming : intraspecific variation in growth responses to nonlocal soils
- 2014
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Ingår i: New Phytologist. - : Wiley. - 0028-646X .- 1469-8137. ; 202:2, s. 431-441
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Most range shift predictions focus on the dispersal phase of the colonization process. Because moving populations experience increasingly dissimilar nonclimatic environmental conditions as they track climate warming, it is also critical to test how individuals originating from contrasting thermal environments can establish in nonlocal sites. We assess the intraspecific variation in growth responses to nonlocal soils by planting a widespread grass of deciduous forests (Milium effusum) into an experimental common garden using combinations of seeds and soil sampled in 22 sites across its distributional range, and reflecting movement scenarios of up to 1600km. Furthermore, to determine temperature and forest-structural effects, the plants and soils were experimentally warmed and shaded. We found significantly positive effects of the difference between the temperature of the sites of seed and soil collection on growth and seedling emergence rates. Migrant plants might thus encounter increasingly favourable soil conditions while tracking the isotherms towards currently colder' soils. These effects persisted under experimental warming. Rising temperatures and light availability generally enhanced plant performance. Our results suggest that abiotic and biotic soil characteristics can shape climate change-driven plant movements by affecting growth of nonlocal migrants, a mechanism which should be integrated into predictions of future range shifts.
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| 5. |
- De Schuyter, Wim, et al.
(författare)
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Declining potential nectar production of the herb layer in temperate forests under global change
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Ecology. - 0022-0477 .- 1365-2745. ; 112:4, s. 832-847
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wild pollinators are crucial for ecosystem functioning and human food production and often rely on floral resources provided by different (semi-) natural ecosystems for survival. Yet, the role of European forests, and especially the European forest herb layer, as a potential provider of floral resources for pollinators has scarcely been quantified.In this study, we measured the potential nectar production (PNP) of the forest herb layer using resurvey data across 3326 plots in temperate forests in Europe, with an average time interval of 41 years between both surveys in order to assess (i) the importance of the forest herb layer in providing nectar for wild pollinators, (ii) the intra-annual variation of PNP, (iii) the overall change in PNP between survey periods and (iv) the change in intra-annual variation of PNP between survey periods. The PNP estimates nectar availability based on the relative cover of different plant species in the forest herb layer. Although PNP overestimates actual nectar production, relative differences amongst plots provide a valid and informative way to analyse differences across time and space.Our results show that the forest herb layer has a large potential for providing nectar for wild pollinator communities, which is greatest in spring, with an average PNP of almost 16 g sugar/m2/year. However, this potential has drastically declined (mean plot-level decline >24%).Change in light availability, associated with shifts in canopy structure and canopy composition, is the key driver of temporal PNP changes.Synthesis. Our study shows that if management activities are carefully planned to sustain nectar-producing plant species for wild pollinators, European forest herb layers and European forests as a whole can play key roles in sustaining wild pollinator populations.
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| 6. |
- De Smedt, Pallieter, et al.
(författare)
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Forest edges reduce slug (but not snail) activity-density across Western Europe
- 2019
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Ingår i: Pedobiologia. - : Elsevier BV. - 0031-4056 .- 1873-1511. ; 75, s. 34-37
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fragmentation strongly shapes the distribution of organisms within forest patches through contrasting environmental conditions between the edge and interior habitat. Edge-to-interior distribution patterns are, however, poorly studied for litter- and soil-dwelling fauna, such as terrestrial gastropods, despite their high densities and significant impact on ecosystem processes, as both herbivores and detritivores. Therefore, we investigated edge-to-interior abundance patterns of terrestrial gastropods in 224 fragmented forest patches across Western Europe. Catching over 15,000 gastropods, we found that slug abundance is reduced in forest edges, while snail abundance shows no response on the edge effect. We hypothesize that these patterns could be explained by higher drought tolerance of snails, since forest edges have reduced air and soil humidity and elevated temperatures compared to forest interiors. Reduced slug abundance in forest edges potentially has ecological consequences for herbivory in and outside forest patches and nutrient cycling.
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| 7. |
- De Smedt, Pallieter, et al.
(författare)
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Linking macrodetritivore distribution to desiccation resistance in small forest fragments embedded in agricultural landscapes in Europe
- 2018
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Ingår i: Landscape Ecology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0921-2973 .- 1572-9761. ; 33:3, s. 407-421
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Most of the agricultural landscape in Europe, and elsewhere, consists of mosaics with scattered fragments of semi-natural habitat like small forest fragments. Mutual interactions between forest fragments and agricultural areas influence ecosystem processes such as nutrient cycling, a process strongly mediated by the macrodetritivore community, which is however, poorly studied. We investigated macrodetritivore distribution patterns at local and landscape-level and used a key functional trait (desiccation resistance) to gain mechanistic insights of the putative drivers.
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| 8. |
- De Smedt, Pallieter, et al.
(författare)
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Strength of forest edge effects on litter-dwelling macro-arthropods across Europe is influenced by forest age and edge properties
- 2019
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Ingår i: Diversity & distributions. - : Wiley. - 1366-9516 .- 1472-4642. ; 25:6, s. 963-974
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AimForests are highly fragmented across Western Europe, making forest edges important features in many agricultural landscapes. Forest edges are subject to strong abiotic gradients altering the forest environment and resulting in strong biotic gradients. This has the potential to change the forest's capacity to provide multiple ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling, carbon sequestration and natural pest control. Soil organisms play a key role in this perspective; however, these taxa are rarely considered in forest edge research.LocationA latitudinal gradient of 2,000 km across Western Europe.MethodsWe sampled six dominant taxa of litter-dwelling macro-arthropods (carabid beetles, spiders, harvestmen, centipedes, millipedes and woodlice) in forest edges and interiors of 192 forest fragments in 12 agricultural landscapes. We related their abundance and community composition to distance from the edge and the interaction with forest age, edge orientation and edge contrast (contrast between land use types at either side of the edge).ResultsThree out of six macro-arthropod taxa have higher activity-density in forest edges compared to forest interiors. The abundance patterns along forest edge-to-interior gradients interacted with forest age. Forest age and edge orientation also influenced within-fragment compositional variation along the forest edge-to-interior gradient. Edge contrast influenced abundance gradients of generalist predators. In general, older forest fragments, south-oriented edges and edges along structurally more continuous land use (lower contrast between forest and adjacent land use) resulted in stronger edge-to-interior gradients while recent forests, north-oriented edges and sharp land use edges induced similarity between forest edge and interior along the forest edge-to-interior gradients in terms of species activity-density and composition.Main conclusionsEdge effects on litter-dwelling macro-arthropods are anticipated to feedback on important ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling, carbon sequestration and natural pest control from small forest fragments.
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| 9. |
- Ehrmann, Steffen, et al.
(författare)
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Environmental drivers of Ixodes ricinus abundance in forest fragments of rural European landscapes
- 2017
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Ingår i: BMC Ecology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1472-6785. ; 17
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The castor bean tick (Ixodes ricinus) transmits infectious diseases such as Lyme borreliosis, which constitutes an important ecosystem disservice. Despite many local studies, a comprehensive understanding of the key drivers of tick abundance at the continental scale is still lacking. We analyze a large set of environmental factors as potential drivers of I. ricinus abundance. Our multi-scale study was carried out in deciduous forest fragments dispersed within two contrasting rural landscapes of eight regions, along a macroclimatic gradient stretching from southern France to central Sweden and Estonia. We surveyed the abundance of I. ricinus, plant community composition, forest structure and soil properties and compiled data on landscape structure, macroclimate and habitat properties. We used linear mixed models to analyze patterns and derived the relative importance of the significant drivers. Results: Many drivers had, on their own, either a moderate or small explanatory value for the abundance of I. ricinus, but combined they explained a substantial part of variation. This emphasizes the complex ecology of I. ricinus and the relevance of environmental factors for tick abundance. Macroclimate only explained a small fraction of variation, while properties of macro- and microhabitat, which buffer macroclimate, had a considerable impact on tick abundance. The amount of forest and the composition of the surrounding rural landscape were additionally important drivers of tick abundance. Functional (dispersules) and structural (density of tree and shrub layers) properties of the habitat patch played an important role. Various diversity metrics had only a small relative importance. Ontogenetic tick stages showed pronounced differences in their response. The abundance of nymphs and adults is explained by the preceding stage with a positive relationship, indicating a cumulative effect of drivers. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the ecosystem disservices of tick-borne diseases, via the abundance of ticks, strongly depends on habitat properties and thus on how humans manage ecosystems from the scale of the microhabitat to the landscape. This study stresses the need to further evaluate the interaction between climate change and ecosystem management on I. ricinus abundance.
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| 10. |
- Ehrmann, Steffen, et al.
(författare)
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Habitat properties are key drivers of Borrelia burgdorferi (s.l.) prevalence in Ixodes ricinus populations of deciduous forest fragments
- 2018
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Ingår i: Parasites & Vectors. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1756-3305. ; 11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundThe tick Ixodes ricinus has considerable impact on the health of humans and other terrestrial animals because it transmits several tick-borne pathogens (TBPs) such as B. burgdorferi (sensu lato), which causes Lyme borreliosis (LB). Small forest patches of agricultural landscapes provide many ecosystem services and also the disservice of LB risk. Biotic interactions and environmental filtering shape tick host communities distinctively between specific regions of Europe, which makes evaluating the dilution effect hypothesis and its influence across various scales challenging. Latitude, macroclimate, landscape and habitat properties drive both hosts and ticks and are comparable metrics across Europe. Therefore, we instead assess these environmental drivers as indicators and determine their respective roles for the prevalence of B. burgdorferi in I. ricinus.MethodsWe sampled I. ricinus and measured environmental properties of macroclimate, landscape and habitat quality of forest patches in agricultural landscapes along a European macroclimatic gradient. We used linear mixed models to determine significant drivers and their relative importance for nymphal and adult B. burgdorferi prevalence. We suggest a new prevalence index, which is pool-size independent.ResultsDuring summer months, our prevalence index varied between 0 and 0.4 per forest patch, indicating a low to moderate disservice. Habitat properties exerted a fourfold larger influence on B. burgdorferi prevalence than macroclimate and landscape properties combined. Increasingly available ecotone habitat of focal forest patches diluted and edge density at landscape scale amplified B. burgdorferi prevalence. Indicators of habitat attractiveness for tick hosts (food resources and shelter) were the most important predictors within habitat patches. More diverse and abundant macro and microhabitat had a diluting effect, as it presumably diversifies the niches for tick-hosts and decreases the probability of contact between ticks and their hosts and hence the transmission likelihood.ConclusionsDiluting effects of more diverse habitat patches would pose another reason to maintain or restore high biodiversity in forest patches of rural landscapes. We suggest classifying habitat patches by their regulating services as dilution and amplification habitat, which predominantly either decrease or increase B. burgdorferi prevalence at local and landscape scale and hence LB risk. Particular emphasis on promoting LB-diluting properties should be put on the management of those habitats that are frequently used by humans. In the light of these findings, climate change may be of little concern for LB risk at local scales, but this should be evaluated further.
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| 11. |
- Heinken, Thilo, et al.
(författare)
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The European Forest Plant Species List (EuForPlant): Concept and applications
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Vegetation Science. - : Wiley. - 1654-1103 .- 1100-9233. ; 33:3, s. 1-16
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Question: When evaluating forests in terms of their biodiversity, distinctiveness and naturalness, the affinity of the constituent species to forests is a crucial parameter. Here we ask to what extent are vascular plant species associated with forests, and does species’ affinity to forests vary between European regions?Location: Temperate and boreal forest biome of Northwestern and Central Europe. Methods: We compiled EuForPlant, a new extensive list of forest vascular plant spe- cies in 24 regions spread across 13 European countries using vegetation databases and expert knowledge. Species were region-specifically classified into four categories reflecting the degree of their affinity to forest habitats: 1.1, species of forest interiors; 1.2, species of forest edges and forest openings; 2.1, species that can be found in forest as well as open vegetation; and 2.2, species that can be found partly in forest, but mainly in open vegetation. An additional “O” category was distinguished, covering species typical for non-forest vegetation.Results: EuForPlant comprises 1,726 species, including 1,437 herb-layer species, 159 shrubs, 107 trees, 19 lianas and 4 epiphytic parasites. Across regions, generalist forest species (with 450 and 777 species classified as 2.1 and 2.2, respectively) significantly outnumbered specialist forest species (with 250 and 137 species classified as 1.1 and 1.2, respectively). Even though the degree of shifting between the categories of for- est affinity among regions was relatively low (on average, 17.5%), about one-third of the forest species (especially 1.2 and 2.2) swapped categories in at least one of the study regions.Conclusions: The proposed list can be used widely in vegetation science and global change ecology related to forest biodiversity and community dynamics. Shifting of forest affinity among regions emphasizes the importance of a continental-scale forest plant species list with regional specificity.
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| 12. |
- Ma, Shiyu, et al.
(författare)
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Local soil characteristics determine the microbial communities under forest understorey plants along a latitudinal gradient
- 2019
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Ingår i: Basic and Applied Ecology. - : Elsevier. - 1439-1791 .- 1618-0089. ; 36, s. 34-44
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The soil microbial community is essential for maintaining ecosystem functioning and is intimately linked with the plant community. Yet, little is known on how soil microbial communities in the root zone vary at continental scales within plant species. Here we assess the effects of soil chemistry, large-scale environmental conditions (i.e. temperature, precipitation and nitrogen deposition) and forest land-use history on the soil microbial communities (measured by phospholipid fatty acids) in the root zone of four plant species (Geum urbanum, Milium effusum, Poa nemoralis and Stachys sylvatica) in forests along a 1700km latitudinal gradient in Europe. Soil microbial communities differed significantly among plant species, and soil chemistry was the main determinant of the microbial community composition within each plant species. Influential soil chemical variables for microbial communities were plant species-specific; soil acidity, however, was often an important factor. Large-scale environmental conditions, together with soil chemistry, only explained the microbial community composition in M. effusum and P. nemoralis. Forest land-use history did not affect the soil microbial community composition. Our results underpin the dominant role of soil chemistry in shaping microbial community composition variation within plant species at the continental scale, and provide insights into the composition and functionality of soil microbial communities in forest ecosystems.
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| 13. |
- Ma, Shiyu, et al.
(författare)
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Plant species identity and soil characteristics determine rhizosphere soil bacteria community composition in European temperate forests
- 2019
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Ingår i: FEMS Microbiology Ecology. - : Oxford University Press. - 0168-6496 .- 1574-6941. ; 95:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Soil bacteria and understorey plants interact and drive forest ecosystem functioning. Yet, knowledge about biotic and abiotic factors that affect the composition of the bacterial community in the rhizosphere of understorey plants is largely lacking. Here, we assessed the effects of plant species identity (Milium effusum vs Stachys sylvatica), rhizospheric soil characteristics, large-scale environmental conditions (temperature, precipitation and nitrogen (N) deposition), and land-use history (ancient vs recent forests) on bacterial community composition in rhizosphere soil in temperate forests along a 1700 km latitudinal gradient in Europe. The dominant bacterial phyla in the rhizosphere soil of both plant species were Acidobacteria, Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria. Bacterial community composition differed significantly between the two plant species. Within plant species, soil chemistry was the most important factor determining soil bacterial community composition. More precisely, soil acidity correlated with the presence of multiple phyla, e.g. Acidobacteria (negatively), Chlamydiae (negatively) and Nitrospirae (positively), in both plant species. Large-scale environmental conditions were only important in S. sylvatica and land-use history was not important in either of the plant species. The observed role of understorey plant species identity and rhizosphere soil characteristics in determining soil bacterial community composition extends our understanding of plant-soil bacteria interactions in forest ecosystem functioning.
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| 14. |
- Marrec, Ronan, et al.
(författare)
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Multiscale drivers of carabid beetle (Coleoptera : Carabidae) assemblages in small European woodlands
- 2021
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Ingår i: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 30:1, s. 165-182
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim: The spatio-temporal connectivity of forest patches in lowland agricultural landscapes and their age matter to explain current biodiversity patterns across regional as well as biogeographical extents, to the point that their effect exceeds the one of macroclimate for plant diversity in the understorey of temperate forests. Whether this remains true for other taxonomic groups is still largely unknown. Yet, this relative influence has important consequences for ecosystem functioning and the delivery of ecosystem services. Focusing on carabid beetle assemblages, we assessed the relative importance of macroclimatic, landscape and patch attributes in driving local species richness (alpha-diversity) and species dissimilarity between patches (beta-diversity).Location: Deciduous forest patches in seven regions along a 2,100-km-long latitudinal gradient across the European temperate forest biome, from southern France to central Sweden.Methods: We sampled 221 forest patches in two 5-km x 5-km landscape windows with contrasting management intensities. Carabid beetles were classified into four habitat-preference guilds: forest-specialist, forest-generalist, eurytopic and open-habitat species. We quantified the multi-level environmental influence using mixed-effects models and variation partitioning analysis.Results: We found that both alpha- and beta-diversity were primarily determined by macroclimate, acting as a large-scale ecological filter on carabid assemblages among regions. Forest-patch conditions, including biotic and abiotic heterogeneity as well as patch age (but not patch size), increased alpha-diversity of forest species. Landscape management intensity weakly influenced alpha-diversity of forest species, but increased the number of non-forest species in forest patches. Beta diversity of non-forest species increased with patch heterogeneity and decreased with landscape management intensity. Main conclusions: Our results highlight the leading role of broad macroclimatic gradients over local and landscape factors in determining the composition of local carabid communities, thereby shedding light on macroecological patterns of arthropod assemblages. This study emphasizes the urgent need for preserving ancient forest patches embedded in agricultural landscapes, even the small and weakly connected ones.
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| 15. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 16. |
- Plue, Jan, et al.
(författare)
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Biological flora of the British Isles:Poa nemoralis
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Ecology. - : WILEY. - 0022-0477 .- 1365-2745. ; 108:4, s. 1750-1774
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This account presents information on all aspects of the biology ofPoa nemoralisL. (Wood Meadow-grass) that are relevant to understanding its ecological characteristics and behaviour. The main topics are presented within the standard framework of theBiological Flora of the British Isles: distribution, habitat, communities, responses to biotic factors, responses to environment, structure and physiology, phenology, floral and seed characters, herbivores and disease, history, and conservation. The grassPoa nemoralisis widespread and frequent to locally common across the British Isles, except for western and central Ireland, and northern Scotland. In both its native Eurasian range and introduced ranges in, for example, the Americas, its main habitat comprises temperate (mixed) deciduous woodland. The species finds important secondary habitats in hedgerows, as well as in non-woodland vegetation such as on cliffs, screes and walls or sporadically in grassland and heathland. Although not always taxonomically or morphologically distinct units, the species is suspected to comprise many cytological races and hybrid polyploid populations with variable morphology. Morphological variation amongP. nemoralispopulations may also be a sign of local environmental adaptation or a result of introgressive hybridization with other, morphologically variable members ofPoasectionStenopoasuch asP. glauca,P. compressaorP. pratensis. Poa nemoralisis a small-statured, loosely caespitose grass, with populations ranging from a few individual tufts to those visually defining the aspect of the herbaceous understorey. The species tolerates moderate to deep shade on the forest floor, yet it tends to forage for available light, occurring more and growing taller in canopy gaps, forest edges and hedgerows. The amount of light is central to its survival and reproductive ecology, being important for flower induction, seed production and seed germination. The species produces large quantities of small, light seeds which facilitate spatial and temporal dispersal. The species occupies a wide range of soil pH (3-7) and nutrient conditions (C/N ratio ranges between 10 and 25), though it clearly prefers moderately acid and somewhat drier soils with limited litter thickness, avoiding soils with mor humus types.Poa nemoralisdisplays distinct small-scale acidifuge responses, being absent in areas of low soil pH (<3). Poa nemoralisis a moderately strong indicator of ancient woodland: it can quickly colonize recently established wooded areas adjacent to ancient woodland when it is not hindered by dispersal limitation and elevated nutrient levels. Nonetheless, dispersal limitation impedes rapid colonization of isolated, recently established woodlands, in spite of ample records of zoochorous seed dispersal. While currently frequent to locally common, the species is at risk if ancient woodlands continue to decline in its native Eurasian range. Across N.W. Europe, it is already in moderate decline in temperate deciduous ancient woodlands because of acidification, eutrophication and darkening of the forest understorey. In its introduced ranges, it is considered invasive.
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| 17. |
- Plue, Jan, et al.
(författare)
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Climatic control of forest herb seed banks along a latitudinal gradient
- 2013
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Ingår i: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 22:10, s. 1106-1117
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim Seed banks are central to the regeneration strategy of many plant species. Any factor altering seed bank density thus affects plant regeneration and population dynamics. Although seed banks are dynamic entities controlled by multiple environmental drivers, climatic factors are the most comprehensive, but still poorly understood. This study investigates how climatic variation structures seed production and resulting seed bank patterns. Location Temperate forests along a 1900km latitudinal gradient in north-western (NW) Europe. Methods Seed production and seed bank density were quantified in 153 plots along the gradient for four forest herbs with different seed longevity: Geum urbanum, Milium effusum, Poa nemoralis and Stachys sylvatica. We tested the importance of climatic and local environmental factors in shaping seed production and seed bank density. Results Seed production was determined by population size, and not by climatic factors. G.urbanum and M.effusum seed bank density declined with decreasing temperature (growing degree days) and/or increasing temperature range (maximum-minimum temperature). P.nemoralis and S.sylvatica seed bank density were limited by population size and not by climatic variables. Seed bank density was also influenced by other, local environmental factors such as soil pH or light availability. Different seed bank patterns emerged due to differential seed longevities. Species with long-lived seeds maintained constant seed bank densities by counteracting the reduced chance of regular years with high seed production at colder northern latitudes. Main conclusions Seed bank patterns show clear interspecific variation in response to climate across the distribution range. Not all seed banking species may be as well equipped to buffer climate change via their seed bank, notably in short-term persistent species. Since the buffering capacity of seed banks is key to species persistence, these results provide crucial information to advance climatic change predictions on range shifts, community and biodiversity responses.
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| 18. |
- Plue, Jan, et al.
(författare)
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Where does the community start, and where does it end? Including the seed bank to reassess forest herb layer responses to the environment
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Vegetation Science. - : Wiley. - 1100-9233 .- 1654-1103. ; 28:2, s. 424-435
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- QuestionBelow-ground processes are key determinants of above-ground plant population and community dynamics. Still, our understanding of how environmental drivers shape plant communities is mostly based on above-ground diversity patterns, bypassing below-ground plant diversity stored in seed banks. As seed banks may shape above-ground plant communities, we question whether concurrently analysing the above- and below-ground species assemblages may potentially enhance our understanding of community responses to environmental variation. LocationTemperate deciduous forests along a 2000km latitudinal gradient in NW Europe. MethodsHerb layer, seed bank and local environmental data including soil pH, canopy cover, forest cover continuity and time since last canopy disturbance were collected in 129 temperate deciduous forest plots. We quantified herb layer and seed bank diversity per plot and evaluated how environmental variation structured community diversity in the herb layer, seed bank and the combined herb layer-seed bank community. ResultsSeed banks consistently held more plant species than the herb layer. How local plot diversity was partitioned across the herb layer and seed bank was mediated by environmental variation in drivers serving as proxies of light availability. The herb layer and seed bank contained an ever smaller and ever larger share of local diversity, respectively, as both canopy cover and time since last canopy disturbance decreased. Species richness and -diversity of the combined herb layer-seed bank community responded distinctly differently compared to the separate assemblages in response to environmental variation in, e.g. forest cover continuity and canopy cover. ConclusionsThe seed bank is a below-ground diversity reservoir of the herbaceous forest community, which interacts with the herb layer, although constrained by environmental variation in e.g. light availability. The herb layer and seed bank co-exist as a single community by means of the so-called storage effect, resulting in distinct responses to environmental variation not necessarily recorded in the individual herb layer or seed bank assemblages. Thus, concurrently analysing above- and below-ground diversity will improve our ecological understanding of how understorey plant communities respond to environmental variation.
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| 19. |
- Valdés, Alicia, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
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High ecosystem service delivery potential of small woodlands in agricultural landscapes
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0021-8901 .- 1365-2664. ; 57:1, s. 4-16
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global forest loss and fragmentation have strongly increased the frequency of forest patches smaller than a few hectares. Little is known about the biodiversity and ecosystem service supply potential of such small woodlands in comparison to larger forests. As it is widely recognized that high biodiversity levels increase ecosystem functionality and the delivery of multiple ecosystem services, small, isolated woodlands are expected to have a lower potential for ecosystem service delivery than large forests hosting more species. We collected data on the diversity of six taxonomic groups covering invertebrates, plants and fungi, and on the supply potential of five ecosystem services and one disservice within 224 woodlands distributed across temperate Europe. We related their ability to simultaneously provide multiple ecosystem services (multiservice delivery potential) at different performance levels to biodiversity of all studied taxonomic groups (multidiversity), forest patch size and age, as well as habitat availability and connectivity within the landscape, while accounting for macroclimate, soil properties and forest structure. Unexpectedly, despite their lower multidiversity, smaller woodlands had the potential to deliver multiple services at higher performance levels per area than larger woodlands of similar age, probably due to positive edge effects on the supply potential of several ecosystem services. Biodiversity only affected multiservice delivery potential at a low performance level as well as some individual ecosystem services. The importance of other drivers of ecosystem service supply potential by small woodlands in agricultural landscapes also depended on the level of performance and varied with the individual ecosystem service considered. Synthesis and applications. Large, ancient woodlands host high levels of biodiversity and can therefore deliver a number of ecosystem services. In contrast, smaller woodlands in agricultural landscapes, especially ancient woodlands, have a higher potential to deliver multiple ecosystem services on a per area basis. Despite their important contribution to agricultural landscape multifunctionality, small woodlands are not currently considered by public policies. There is thus an urgent need for targeted policy instruments to ensure their adequate management and future conservation in order to either achieve multiservice delivery at high levels or to maximize the delivery of specific ecosystem services.
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| 20. |
- Valdés, Alicia, et al.
(författare)
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The contribution of patch-scale conditions is greater than that of macroclimate in explaining local plant diversity in fragmented forests across Europe
- 2015
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Ingår i: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 24:9, s. 1094-1105
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AimMacroclimate is a major determinant of large-scale diversity patterns. However, the influence of smaller-scale factors on local diversity across large spatial extents is not well documented. Here, we quantify the relative importance of local (patch-scale), landscape-scale and macroclimatic drivers of herbaceous species diversity in small forest patches in agricultural landscapes across Europe. LocationDeciduous forest patches in eight regions along a macroclimatic gradient from southern France to central Sweden and Estonia. MethodsThe diversity of forest specialists and generalists at three levels (whole forest patch, sampling plots within patches and between scales) was related to patch-scale (forest area, age, abiotic and biotic heterogeneity), landscape-scale (amount of forest, grasslands and hedgerows around the patch, patch isolation) and macroclimatic variables (temperature and precipitation) using generalized linear mixed models and variation partitioning for each group of variables. ResultsThe total amount of explained variation in diversity ranged from 8% for plot-scale diversity of generalists to 54% for patch-scale diversity of forest specialists. Patch-scale variables always explained more than 60% of the explained variation in diversity, mainly due to the positive effect of within-patch heterogeneity on patch-scale and between-scale diversities and to the positive effect of patch age on plot-scale diversity of forest specialists. Landscape-scale variables mainly contributed to the amount of explained variation in plot-scale diversity, being more important for forest specialists (21%) than for generalists (18%). Macroclimatic variables contributed a maximum of 11% to the plot-scale diversity of generalists. Main conclusionsMacroclimate poorly predicts local diversity across Europe, and herbaceous diversity is mainly explained by habitat features, less so by landscape structure. We show the importance of conserving old forest patches as refugia for typical forest species, and of enhancing the landscape context around the patches by reducing the degree of disturbance caused by agriculture.
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| 21. |
- Vanneste, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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Contrasting microclimates among hedgerows and woodlands across temperate Europe
- 2020
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Ingår i: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0168-1923 .- 1873-2240. ; 281
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hedgerows have the potential to facilitate the persistence and migration of species across landscapes, mostly due to benign microclimatic conditions. This thermal buffering function may become even more important in the future for species migration under climate change. Unfortunately, there is a lack of empirical studies quantifying the microclimate of hedgerows, particularly at broad geographical scales. Here we monitored sub-canopy temperatures using 168 miniature temperature sensors distributed along woodland-hedgerow transects, and spanning a 1600-km macroclimatic gradient across Europe. First, we assessed the variation in the temperature offset (that is, the difference between sub-canopy and corresponding macroclimate temperatures) for minimum, mean and maximum temperatures along the woodland-hedgerow transects. Next, we linked the observed patterns to macroclimate temperatures as well as canopy structure, overstorey composition and hedgerow characteristics. The sub-canopy versus macroclimate temperature offset was on average 0.10 degrees C lower in hedgerows than in woodlands. Minimum winter temperatures were consistently lower by 0.10 degrees C in hedgerows than in woodlands, while maximum summer temperatures were 0.80 degrees C higher, albeit mainly around the woodland-hedgerow ecotone. The temperature offset was often negatively correlated with macroclimate temperatures. The slope of this relationship was lower for maximum temperatures in hedgerows than in woodlands. During summer, canopy cover, tree height and hedgerow width had strong cooling effects on maximum mid-day temperatures in hedgerows. The effects of shrub height, shrub cover and shade-casting ability, however, were not significant. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify hedgerow microclimates along a continental-scale environmental gradient. We show that hedgerows are less efficient thermal insulators than woodlands, especially at high ambient temperatures (e.g. on warm summer days). This knowledge will not only result in better predictions of species distribution across fragmented landscapes, but will also help to elaborate efficient strategies for biodiversity conservation and landscape planning.
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| 22. |
- Vanneste, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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Functional trait variation of forest understorey plant communities across Europe
- 2019
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Ingår i: Basic and Applied Ecology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1439-1791 .- 1618-0089. ; 34, s. 1-14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global environmental changes are expected to alter the functional characteristics of understorey herb-layer communities, potentially affecting forest ecosystem functioning. However, little is known about what drives the variability of functional traits in forest understories. Here, we assessed the role of different environmental drivers in shaping the functional trait distribution of understorey herbs in fragmented forests across three spatial scales. We focused on 708 small, deciduous forest patches located in 16 agricultural landscape windows, spanning a 2500-km macroclimatic gradient across the temperate forest biome in Europe. We estimated the relative effect of patch-scale, landscape-scale and macroclimatic variables on the community mean and variation of plant height, specific leaf area and seed mass. Macroclimatic variables (monthly temperature and precipitation extremes) explained the largest proportion of variation in community trait means (on average 77% of the explained variation). In contrast, patch-scale factors dominated in explaining community trait variation (on average 68% of the explained variation). Notably, patch age, size and internal heterogeneity had a positive effect on the community-level variability. Landscape-scale variables explained only a minor part of the variation in both trait distribution properties. The variation explained by shared combinations of the variable groups was generally negligible. These findings highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial scales in predictions of environmental-change effects on the functionality of forest understories. We propose that forest management sustainability could benefit from conserving larger, historically continuous and internally heterogeneous forest patches to maximise ecosystem service diversity in rural landscapes.
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| 23. |
- Vanneste, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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Plant diversity in hedgerows and road verges across Europe
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0021-8901 .- 1365-2664. ; 57:7, s. 1244-1257
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Linear landscape elements such as hedgerows and road verges have the potential to mitigate the adverse effects of habitat fragmentation and climate change on species, for instance, by serving as a refuge habitat or by improving functional connectivity across the landscape. However, so far this hypothesis has not been evaluated at large spatial scales, preventing us from making generalized conclusions about their efficacy and implementation in conservation policies. Here, we assessed plant diversity patterns in 336 vegetation plots distributed along hedgerows and road verges, spanning a macro-environmental gradient across temperate Europe. We compared herb-layer species richness and composition in these linear elements with the respective seed-source (core) habitats, that is, semi-natural forests and grasslands. Next, we assessed how these differences related to several environmental drivers acting either locally, at the landscape level or along the studied macro-ecological gradient. Across all regions, about 55% of the plant species were shared between forests and hedgerows, and 52% between grasslands and road verges. Habitat-specialist richness was 11% lower in the linear habitats than in the core habitats, while generalist richness was 14% higher. The difference in floristic composition between both habitat types was mainly due to species turnover, and not nestedness. Most notably, forest-specialist richness in hedgerows responded positively to tree cover, tree height and the proportion of forests in the surrounding landscape, while generalist richness was negatively affected by tree height and buffering effect of trees on subcanopy temperatures. Grassland and road verge diversity was mainly influenced by soil properties, with positive effects of basic cation levels on the number of specialists and those of bioavailable soil phosphorus on generalist diversity. Synthesis and applications. We demonstrate that linear landscape elements provide a potential habitat for plant species across Europe, including slow-colonizing specialists. Additionally, our results stress the possibility for land managers to modify local habitat features (e.g. canopy structure, subcanopy microclimate, soil properties, mowing regime) through management practices to enhance the colonization success of specialists in these linear habitats. These findings underpin the management needed to better conserving the biodiversity of agricultural landscapes across broad geographical scales.
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| 24. |
- Vellend, Mark, et al.
(författare)
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Homogenization of forest plant communities and weakening of species–environment relationships via agricultural land use
- 2007
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Ingår i: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0022-0477 .- 1365-2745. ; 95, s. 565-573
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- 1Disturbance may cause community composition across sites to become more or less homogenous, depending on the importance of different processes involved in community assembly. In north-eastern North America and Europe local (alpha) diversity of forest plants is lower in forests growing on former agricultural fields (recent forests) than in older (ancient) forests, but little is known about the influence of land-use history on the degree of compositional differentiation among sites (beta diversity).2Here we analyse data from 1446 sites in ancient and recent forests across 11 different landscapes in north-eastern North America and Europe to demonstrate decreases in beta diversity and in the strength of species–environment relationships in recent vs. ancient forests.3The magnitude of environmental variability among sites did not differ between the two forest types. This suggests the difference in beta diversity between ancient and recent forests was not due to different degrees of environmental heterogeneity, but rather to dispersal filters that constrain the pool of species initially colonizing recent forests.4The observed effects of community homogenization and weakened relationships between species distributions and environmental gradients appear to persist for decades or longer. The legacy of human land-use history in spatial patterns of biodiversity may endure, both within individual sites and across sites, for decades if not centuries.
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| 25. |
- Verheyen, Kris, et al.
(författare)
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201 Combining Biodiversity Resurveys across Regions to Advance Global Change Research
- 2017
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Ingår i: BioScience. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0006-3568 .- 1525-3244. ; 67:1, s. 73-83
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- More and more ecologists have started to resurvey communities sampled in earlier decades to determine long-term shifts in community composition and infer the likely drivers of the ecological changes observed. However, to assess the relative importance of and interactions among multiple drivers, joint analyses of resurvey data from many regions spanning large environmental gradients are needed. In this article, we illustrate how combining resurvey data from multiple regions can increase the likelihood of driver orthogonality within the design and show that repeatedly surveying across multiple regions provides higher representativeness and comprehensiveness, allowing us to answer more completely a broader range of questions. We provide general guidelines to aid the implementation of multiregion resurvey databases. In so doing, we aim to encourage resurvey database development across other community types and biomes to advance global environmental change research.
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| 26. |
- Verheyen, Kris, et al.
(författare)
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Driving factors behind the eutrophication signal in understorey plant communities of deciduous temperate forests
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0022-0477 .- 1365-2745. ; 100:2, s. 352-365
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- 1. Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is expected to change forest understorey plant community composition and diversity, but results of experimental addition studies and observational studies are not yet conclusive. A shortcoming of observational studies, which are generally based on resurveys or sampling along large deposition gradients, is the occurrence of temporal or spatial confounding factors. 2. We were able to assess the contribution of N deposition versus other ecological drivers on forest understorey plant communities by combining a temporal and spatial approach. Data from 1205 (semi-)permanent vegetation plots taken from 23 rigorously selected understorey resurvey studies along a large deposition gradient across deciduous temperate forest in Europe were compiled and related to various local and regional driving factors, including the rate of atmospheric N deposition, the change in large herbivore densities and the change in canopy cover and composition. 3. Although no directional change in species richness occurred, there was considerable floristic turnover in the understorey plant community and a shift in species composition towards more shade-tolerant and nutrient-demanding species. However, atmospheric N deposition was not important in explaining the observed eutrophication signal. This signal seemed mainly related to a shift towards a denser canopy cover and a changed canopy species composition with a higher share of species with more easily decomposed litter. 4. Synthesis. Our multi-site approach clearly demonstrates that one should be cautious when drawing conclusions about the impact of atmospheric N deposition based on the interpretation of plant community shifts in single sites or regions due to other, concurrent, ecological changes. Even though the effects of chronically increased N deposition on the forest plant communities are apparently obscured by the effects of canopy changes, the accumulated N might still have a significant impact. However, more research is needed to assess whether this N time bomb will indeed explode when canopies will open up again.
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| 27. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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| 28. |
- Wasof, Safaa, et al.
(författare)
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Ecological niche shifts of understorey plants along a latitudinal gradient of temperate forests in north-western Europe
- 2013
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Ingår i: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 22:10, s. 1130-1140
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim In response to environmental changes and to avoid extinction, species may either track suitable environmental conditions or adapt to the modified environment. However, whether and how species adapt to environmental changes remains unclear. By focusing on the realized niche (i.e. the actual space that a species inhabits and the resources it can access as a result of limiting biotic factors present in its habitat), we here examine shifts in the realized-niche width (i.e. ecological amplitude) and position (i.e. ecological optimum) of 26 common and widespread forest understorey plants across their distributional ranges. Location Temperate forests along a ca. 1800-km-long latitudinal gradient from northern France to central Sweden and Estonia. Methods We derived species' realized-niche width from a -diversity metric, which increases if the focal species co-occurs with more species. Based on the concept that species' scores in a detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) represent the locations of their realized-niche positions, we developed a novel approach to run species-specific DCAs allowing the focal species to shift its realized-niche position along the studied latitudinal gradient while the realized-niche positions of other species were held constant. Results None of the 26 species maintained both their realized-niche width and position along the latitudinal gradient. Few species (9 of 26: 35%) shifted their realized-niche width, but all shifted their realized-niche position. With increasing latitude, most species (22 of 26: 85%) shifted their realized-niche position for soil nutrients and pH towards nutrient-poorer and more acidic soils. Main conclusions Forest understorey plants shifted their realized niche along the latitudinal gradient, suggesting local adaptation and/or plasticity. This macroecological pattern casts doubt on the idea that the realized niche is stable in space and time, which is a key assumption of species distribution models used to predict the future of biodiversity, hence raising concern about predicted extinction rates.
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| 29. |
- Wei, Liping, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of patch age and size on forest soil characteristics in European agricultural landscapes
- 2023
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 898
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many landscapes worldwide are characterized by the presence of a mosaic of forest patches with contrasting age and size embedded in a matrix of agricultural land. However, our understanding of the effects of these key forest patch features on the soil nutrient status (in terms of nitrogen, carbon, and phosphorus) and soil pH is still limited due to a lack of large-scale data. To address this research gap, we analyzed 830 soil samples from nearly 200 forest patches varying in age (recent versus ancient forests) and size (small versus larger patches) along a 2500-km latitudinal gradient across Europe. We also considered environmental covariates at multiple scales to increase the generality of our research, including variation in macroclimate, nitrogen deposition rates, forest cover in a buffer zone, basal area and soil type. Multiple linear mixed-effects models were performed to test the combined effects of patch features and environmental covariates on soil nutrients and pH. Recent patches had higher total soil phosphorus concentrations and stocks in the mineral soil layer, along with a lower nitrogen to phosphorus ratio within that layer. Small patches generally had a higher mineral soil pH. Mineral soil nitrogen stocks were lower in forest patches with older age and larger size, as a result of a significant interactive effect. Additionally, environmental covariates had significant effects on soil nutrients, including carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and their stoichiometry, depending on the specific covariates. In some cases, the effect of patch age on mineral soil phosphorus stocks was greater than that of environmental covariates. Our findings underpin the important roles of forest patch age and size for the forest soil nutrient status. Long-term studies assessing edge effects and soil development in post-agricultural forests are needed, especially in a context of changing land use and climate.
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| 30. |
- Wulf Hanson, Sarah, et al.
(författare)
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A global systematic analysis of the occurrence, severity, and recovery pattern of long COVID in 2020 and 2021
- 2022
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Importance: While much of the attention on the COVID-19 pandemic was directed at the daily counts of cases and those with serious disease overwhelming health services, increasingly, reports have appeared of people who experience debilitating symptoms after the initial infection. This is popularly known as long COVID.Objective: To estimate by country and territory of the number of patients affected by long COVID in 2020 and 2021, the severity of their symptoms and expected pattern of recovery.Design: We jointly analyzed ten ongoing cohort studies in ten countries for the occurrence of three major symptom clusters of long COVID among representative COVID cases. The defining symptoms of the three clusters (fatigue, cognitive problems, and shortness of breath) are explicitly mentioned in the WHO clinical case definition. For incidence of long COVID, we adopted the minimum duration after infection of three months from the WHO case definition. We pooled data from the contributing studies, two large medical record databases in the United States, and findings from 44 published studies using a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We separately estimated occurrence and pattern of recovery in patients with milder acute infections and those hospitalized. We estimated the incidence and prevalence of long COVID globally and by country in 2020 and 2021 as well as the severity-weighted prevalence using disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease study.Results: Analyses are based on detailed information for 1906 community infections and 10526 hospitalized patients from the ten collaborating cohorts, three of which included children. We added published data on 37262 community infections and 9540 hospitalized patients as well as ICD-coded medical record data concerning 1.3 million infections. Globally, in 2020 and 2021, 144.7 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 54.8-312.9) people suffered from any of the three symptom clusters of long COVID. This corresponds to 3.69% (1.38-7.96) of all infections. The fatigue, respiratory, and cognitive clusters occurred in 51.0% (16.9-92.4), 60.4% (18.9-89.1), and 35.4% (9.4-75.1) of long COVID cases, respectively. Those with milder acute COVID-19 cases had a quicker estimated recovery (median duration 3.99 months [IQR 3.84-4.20]) than those admitted for the acute infection (median duration 8.84 months [IQR 8.10-9.78]). At twelve months, 15.1% (10.3-21.1) continued to experience long COVID symptoms.Conclusions and relevance: The occurrence of debilitating ongoing symptoms of COVID-19 is common. Knowing how many people are affected, and for how long, is important to plan for rehabilitative services and support to return to social activities, places of learning, and the workplace when symptoms start to wane.Key Points: Question: What are the extent and nature of the most common long COVID symptoms by country in 2020 and 2021?Findings: Globally, 144.7 million people experienced one or more of three symptom clusters (fatigue; cognitive problems; and ongoing respiratory problems) of long COVID three months after infection, in 2020 and 2021. Most cases arose from milder infections. At 12 months after infection, 15.1% of these cases had not yet recovered.Meaning: The substantial number of people with long COVID are in need of rehabilitative care and support to transition back into the workplace or education when symptoms start to wane.
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- Wulf Hanson, Sarah, et al.
(författare)
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Estimated Global Proportions of Individuals With Persistent Fatigue, Cognitive, and Respiratory Symptom Clusters Following Symptomatic COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 0098-7484 .- 1538-3598. ; 328:16, s. 1604-1615
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IMPORTANCE: Some individuals experience persistent symptoms after initial symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (often referred to as Long COVID).OBJECTIVE: To estimate the proportion of males and females with COVID-19, younger or older than 20 years of age, who had Long COVID symptoms in 2020 and 2021 and their Long COVID symptom duration.DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Bayesian meta-regression and pooling of 54 studies and 2 medical record databases with data for 1.2 million individuals (from 22 countries) who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of the 54 studies, 44 were published and 10 were collaborating cohorts (conducted in Austria, the Faroe Islands, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the US). The participant data were derived from the 44 published studies (10 501 hospitalized individuals and 42 891 nonhospitalized individuals), the 10 collaborating cohort studies (10 526 and 1906), and the 2 US electronic medical record databases (250 928 and 846 046). Data collection spanned March 2020 to January 2022.EXPOSURES: Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Proportion of individuals with at least 1 of the 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020 and 2021, estimated separately for hospitalized and nonhospitalized individuals aged 20 years or older by sex and for both sexes of nonhospitalized individuals younger than 20 years of age.RESULTS: A total of 1.2 million individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection were included (mean age, 4-66 years; males, 26%-88%). In the modeled estimates, 6.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 2.4%-13.3%) of individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection experienced at least 1 of the 3 Long COVID symptom clusters in 2020 and 2021, including 3.2% (95% UI, 0.6%-10.0%) for persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings, 3.7% (95% UI, 0.9%-9.6%) for ongoing respiratory problems, and 2.2% (95% UI, 0.3%-7.6%) for cognitive problems after adjusting for health status before COVID-19, comprising an estimated 51.0% (95% UI, 16.9%-92.4%), 60.4% (95% UI, 18.9%-89.1%), and 35.4% (95% UI, 9.4%-75.1%), respectively, of Long COVID cases. The Long COVID symptom clusters were more common in women aged 20 years or older (10.6% [95% UI, 4.3%-22.2%]) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection than in men aged 20 years or older (5.4% [95% UI, 2.2%-11.7%]). Both sexes younger than 20 years of age were estimated to be affected in 2.8% (95% UI, 0.9%-7.0%) of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. The estimated mean Long COVID symptom cluster duration was 9.0 months (95% UI, 7.0-12.0 months) among hospitalized individuals and 4.0 months (95% UI, 3.6-4.6 months) among nonhospitalized individuals. Among individuals with Long COVID symptoms 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, an estimated 15.1% (95% UI, 10.3%-21.1%) continued to experience symptoms at 12 months.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study presents modeled estimates of the proportion of individuals with at least 1 of 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.
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