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1.
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2.
  • Klionsky, Daniel J., et al. (författare)
  • Guidelines for the use and interpretation of assays for monitoring autophagy
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Autophagy. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1554-8635 .- 1554-8627. ; 8:4, s. 445-544
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In 2008 we published the first set of guidelines for standardizing research in autophagy. Since then, research on this topic has continued to accelerate, and many new scientists have entered the field. Our knowledge base and relevant new technologies have also been expanding. Accordingly, it is important to update these guidelines for monitoring autophagy in different organisms. Various reviews have described the range of assays that have been used for this purpose. Nevertheless, there continues to be confusion regarding acceptable methods to measure autophagy, especially in multicellular eukaryotes. A key point that needs to be emphasized is that there is a difference between measurements that monitor the numbers or volume of autophagic elements (e.g., autophagosomes or autolysosomes) at any stage of the autophagic process vs. those that measure flux through the autophagy pathway (i.e., the complete process); thus, a block in macroautophagy that results in autophagosome accumulation needs to be differentiated from stimuli that result in increased autophagic activity, defined as increased autophagy induction coupled with increased delivery to, and degradation within, lysosomes (in most higher eukaryotes and some protists such as Dictyostelium) or the vacuole (in plants and fungi). In other words, it is especially important that investigators new to the field understand that the appearance of more autophagosomes does not necessarily equate with more autophagy. In fact, in many cases, autophagosomes accumulate because of a block in trafficking to lysosomes without a concomitant change in autophagosome biogenesis, whereas an increase in autolysosomes may reflect a reduction in degradative activity. Here, we present a set of guidelines for the selection and interpretation of methods for use by investigators who aim to examine macroautophagy and related processes, as well as for reviewers who need to provide realistic and reasonable critiques of papers that are focused on these processes. These guidelines are not meant to be a formulaic set of rules, because the appropriate assays depend in part on the question being asked and the system being used. In addition, we emphasize that no individual assay is guaranteed to be the most appropriate one in every situation, and we strongly recommend the use of multiple assays to monitor autophagy. In these guidelines, we consider these various methods of assessing autophagy and what information can, or cannot, be obtained from them. Finally, by discussing the merits and limits of particular autophagy assays, we hope to encourage technical innovation in the field.
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3.
  • Lozano, Rafael, et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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4.
  • Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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5.
  • Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (författare)
  • Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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6.
  • Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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7.
  • Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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8.
  • Vos, Theo, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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9.
  • Hudson, Lawrence N, et al. (författare)
  • The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2045-7758. ; 7:1, s. 145-188
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
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10.
  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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11.
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12.
  • Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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13.
  • Feigin, Valery L., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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14.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Atmospheric gas dynamics in the Perseus cluster observed with Hitomi
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Extending the earlier measurements reported in Hitomi collaboration (2016, Nature, 535, 117), we examine the atmospheric gas motions within the central 100 kpc of the Perseus cluster using observations obtained with the Hitomi satellite. After correcting for the point spread function of the telescope and using optically thin emission lines, we find that the line-of-sight velocity dispersion of the hot gas is remarkably low and mostly uniform. The velocity dispersion reaches a maxima of approximately 200 km s(-1) toward the central active galactic nucleus (AGN) and toward the AGN inflated northwestern ghost bubble. Elsewhere within the observed region, the velocity dispersion appears constant around 100 km s(-1). We also detect a velocity gradient with a 100 km s(-1) amplitude across the cluster core, consistent with large-scale sloshing of the core gas. If the observed gas motions are isotropic, the kinetic pressure support is less than 10% of the thermal pressure support in the cluster core. The well-resolved, optically thin emission lines have Gaussian shapes, indicating that the turbulent driving scale is likely below 100 kpc, which is consistent with the size of the AGN jet inflated bubbles. We also report the first measurement of the ion temperature in the intracluster medium, which we find to be consistent with the electron temperature. In addition, we present a new measurement of the redshift of the brightest cluster galaxy NGC 1275.
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15.
  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare)
  • Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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16.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Atomic data and spectral modeling constraints from high-resolution X-ray observations of the Perseus cluster with Hitomi
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Hitomi Soft X-ray Spectrometer spectrum of the Perseus cluster, with similar to 5 eV resolution in the 2-9 keV band, offers an unprecedented benchmark of the atomic modeling and database for hot collisional plasmas. It reveals both successes and challenges of the current atomic data and models. The latest versions of AtomDB/APEC (3.0.8), SPEX (3.03.00), and CHIANTI (8.0) all provide reasonable fits to the broad-band spectrum, and are in close agreement on best-fit temperature, emission measure, and abundances of a few elements such as Ni. For the Fe abundance, the APEC and SPEX measurements differ by 16%, which is 17 times higher than the statistical uncertainty. This is mostly attributed to the differences in adopted collisional excitation and dielectronic recombination rates of the strongest emission lines. We further investigate and compare the sensitivity of the derived physical parameters to the astrophysical source modeling and instrumental effects. The Hitomi results show that accurate atomic data and models are as important as the astrophysical modeling and instrumental calibration aspects. Substantial updates of atomic databases and targeted laboratory measurements are needed to get the current data and models ready for the data from the next Hitomi-level mission.
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17.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Detection of polarized gamma-ray emission from the Crab nebula with the Hitomi Soft Gamma-ray Detector
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:6
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present the results from the Hitomi Soft Gamma-ray Detector (SGD) observation of the Crab nebula. The main part of SGD is a Compton camera, which in addition to being a spectrometer, is capable of measuring polarization of gamma-ray photons. The Crab nebula is one of the brightest X-ray / gamma-ray sources on the sky, and, the only source from which polarized X-ray photons have been detected. SGD observed the Crab nebula during the initial test observation phase of Hitomi. We performed the data analysis of the SGD observation, the SGD background estimation and the SGD Monte Carlo simulations, and, successfully detected polarized gamma-ray emission from the Crab nebula with only about 5 ks exposure time. The obtained polarization fraction of the phase-integrated Crab emission (sum of pulsar and nebula emissions) is (22.1% +/- 10.6%), and, the polarization angle is 110.degrees 7 + 13.degrees 2 /-13.degrees 0 in the energy range of 60-160 keV (The errors correspond to the 1 sigma deviation). The confidence level of the polarization detection was 99.3%. The polarization angle measured by SGD is about one sigma deviation with the projected spin axis of the pulsar, 124.degrees 0 +/- 0.degrees 1.
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18.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Glimpse of the highly obscured HMXB IGR J16318-4848 with Hitomi
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We report on a Hitomi observation of IGR J16318-4848, a high-mass X-ray binary system with an extremely strong absorption of N-H similar to 10(24) cm(-2). Previous X-ray studies revealed that its spectrum is dominated by strong fluorescence lines of Fe as well as continuum emission lines. For physical and geometrical insight into the nature of the reprocessing material, we utilized the high spectroscopic resolving power of the X-ray microcalorimeter (the soft X-ray spectrometer: SXS) and the wide-band sensitivity by the soft and hard X-ray imagers (SXI and HXI) aboard Hitomi. Even though the photon counts are limited due to unintended off-axis pointing, the SXS spectrum resolves Fe K alpha(1) and K alpha(2) lines and puts strong constraints on the line centroid and line width. The line width corresponds to a velocity of 160(-70)(+300) km s(-1). This represents the most accurate, and smallest, width measurement of this line made so far from the any X-ray binary, much less than the Doppler broadening and Doppler shift expected from speeds that are characteristic of similar systems. Combined with the K-shell edge energy measured by the SXI and HXI spectra, the ionization state of Fe is estimated to be in the range of Fe I-IV. Considering the estimated ionization parameter and the distance between the X-ray source and the absorber, the density and thickness of the materials are estimated. The extraordinarily strong absorption and the absence of a Compton shoulder component have been confirmed. These characteristics suggest reprocessing materials that are distributed in a narrow solid angle or scattering, primarily by warm free electrons or neutral hydrogen. This measurement was achieved using the SXS detection of 19 photons. It provides strong motivation for follow-up observations of this and other X-ray binaries using the X-ray Astrophysics Recovery Mission and other comparable future instruments.
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19.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Hitomi observation of radio galaxy NGC 1275 : The first X-ray microcalorimeter spectroscopy of Fe-K alpha line emission from an active galactic nucleus
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The origin of the narrow Fe-K alpha fluorescence line at 6.4 keV from active galactic nuclei has long been under debate; some of the possible sites are the outer accretion disk, the broad line region, a molecular torus, or interstellar/intracluster media. In 2016 February-March, we performed the first X-ray microcalorimeter spectroscopy with the Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS) on board the Hitomi satellite of the Fanaroff-Riley type I radio galaxy NGC 1275 at the center of the Perseus cluster of galaxies. With the high-energy resolution of similar to 5 eV at 6 keV achieved by Hitomi/SXS, we detected the Fe-K alpha line with similar to 5.4 sigma significance. The velocity width is constrained to be 500-1600 km s(-1) (FWHM for Gaussian models) at 90% confidence. The SXS also constrains the continuum level from the NGC 1275 nucleus up to similar to 20 keV, giving an equivalent width of similar to 20 eV for the 6.4 keV line. Because the velocity width is narrower than that of the broad H alpha line of similar to 2750 km s(-1), we can exclude a large contribution to the line flux from the accretion disk and the broad line region. Furthermore, we performed pixel map analyses on the Hitomi/SXS data and image analyses on the Chandra archival data, and revealed that the Fe-K alpha line comes from a region within similar to 1.6 kpc of the NGC 1275 core, where an active galactic nucleus emission dominates, rather than that from intracluster media. Therefore, we suggest that the source of the Fe-K alpha line from NGC 1275 is likely a low-covering-fraction molecular torus or a rotating molecular disk which probably extends from a parsec to hundreds of parsecs scale in the active galactic nucleus system.
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20.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Hitomi observations of the LMC SNR N 132 D : Highly redshifted X-ray emission from iron ejecta
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present Hitomi observations of N 132 D, a young, X-ray bright, O-rich core-collapse supernova remnant in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). Despite a very short observation of only 3.7 ks, the Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS) easily detects the line complexes of highly ionized S K and Fe K with 16-17 counts in each. The Fe feature is measured for the first time at high spectral resolution. Based on the plausible assumption that the Fe K emission is dominated by He-like ions, we find that the material responsible for this Fe emission is highly redshifted at similar to 800 km s(-1) compared to the local LMC interstellar medium (ISM), with a 90% credible interval of 50-1500 km s(-1) if a weakly informative prior is placed on possible line broadening. This indicates (1) that the Fe emission arises from the supernova ejecta, and (2) that these ejecta are highly asymmetric, since no blueshifted component is found. The S K velocity is consistent with the local LMC ISM, and is likely from swept-up ISM material. These results are consistent with spatial mapping that shows the He-like Fe concentrated in the interior of the remnant and the S tracing the outer shell. The results also show that even with a very small number of counts, direct velocity measurements from Doppler-shifted lines detected in extended objects like supernova remnants are now possible. Thanks to the very low SXS background of similar to 1 event per spectral resolution element per 100 ks, such results are obtainable during short pointed or slew observations with similar instruments. This highlights the power of high-spectral-resolution imaging observations, and demonstrates the new window that has been opened with Hitomi and will be greatly widened with future missions such as the X-ray Astronomy Recovery Mission (XARM) and Athena.
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21.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Hitomi X-ray observation of the pulsar wind nebula G21.5-0.9
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:3
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present results from the Hitomi X-ray observation of a young composite-type supernova remnant (SNR) G21.5-0.9, whose emission is dominated by the pulsar wind nebula (PWN) contribution. The X-ray spectra in the 0.8-80 keV range obtained with the Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS), Soft X-ray Imager, and Hard X-ray Imager (HXI) show a significant break in the continuum as previously found with the NuSTAR observation. After taking into account all known emissions from the SNR other than the PWN itself, we find that the Hitomi spectra can be fitted with a broken power law with photon indices of Gamma(1) = 1.74 +/- 0.02 and Gamma(2) = 2.14 +/- 0.01 below and above the break at 7.1 +/- 0.3 keV, which is significantly lower than the NuSTAR result (similar to 9.0 keV). The spectral break cannot be reproduced by time-dependent particle injection one-zone spectral energy distribution models, which strongly indicates that a more complex emission model is needed, as suggested by recent theoretical models. We also search for narrow emission or absorption lines with the SXS, and perform a timing analysis of PSR J1833-1034 with the HXI and the Soft Gamma-ray Detector. No significant pulsation is found from the pulsar. However, unexpectedly, narrow absorption line features are detected in the SXS data at 4.2345 keV and 9.296 keV with a significance of 3.65 sigma. While the origin of these features is not understood, their mere detection opens up a new field of research and was only possible with the high resolution, sensitivity, and ability to measure extended sources provided by an X-ray microcalorimeter.
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22.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Hitomi X-ray studies of giant radio pulses from the Crab pulsar
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • To search for giant X-ray pulses correlated with the giant radio pulses (GRPs) from the Crab pulsar, we performed a simultaneous observation of the Crab pulsar with the X-ray satellite Hitomi in the 2-300 keV band and the Kashima NICT radio telescope in the 1.4-1.7 GHz band with a net exposure of about 2 ks on 2016 March 25, just before the loss of the Hitomi mission. The timing performance of the Hitomi instruments was confirmed to meet the timing requirement and about 1000 and 100 GRPs were simultaneously observed at the main pulse and inter-pulse phases, respectively, and we found no apparent correlation between the giant radio pulses and the X-ray emission in either the main pulse or inter-pulse phase. All variations are within the 2 sigma fluctuations of the X-ray fluxes at the pulse peaks, and the 3 sigma upper limits of variations of main pulse or inter-pulse GRPs are 22% or 80% of the peak flux in a 0.20 phase width, respectively, in the 2-300 keV band. The values for main pulse or inter-pulse GRPs become 25% or 110%, respectively, when the phase width is restricted to the 0.03 phase. Among the upper limits from the Hitomi satellite, those in the 4.5-10 keV and 70-300 keV bands are obtained for the first time, and those in other bands are consistent with previous reports. Numerically, the upper limits of the main pulse and inter-pulse GRPs in the 0.20 phase width are about (2.4 and 9.3) x 10(-11) erg cm(-2), respectively. No significant variability in pulse profiles implies that the GRPs originated from a local place within the magneto-sphere. Although the number of photon-emitting particles should temporarily increase to account for the brightening of the radio emission, the results do not statistically rule out variations correlated with the GRPs, because the possible X-ray enhancement may appear due to a > 0.02% brightening of the pulse-peak flux under such conditions.
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23.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Measurements of resonant scattering in the Perseus Cluster core with Hitomi SXS
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Thanks to its high spectral resolution (similar to 5 eV at 6 keV), the Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS) on board Hitomi enables us to measure the detailed structure of spatially resolved emission lines from highly ionized ions in galaxy clusters for the first time. In this series of papers, using the SXS we have measured the velocities of gas motions, metallicities and the multi-temperature structure of the gas in the core of the Perseus Cluster. Here, we show that when inferring physical properties from line emissivities in systems like Perseus, the resonant scattering effect should be taken into account. In the Hitomi waveband, resonant scattering mostly affects the Fe XXV He alpha line (w)-the strongest line in the spectrum. The flux measured by Hitomi in this line is suppressed by a factor of similar to 1.3 in the inner similar to 30 kpc, compared to predictions for an optically thin plasma; the suppression decreases with the distance from the center. The w line also appears slightly broader than other lines from the same ion. The observed distortions of the w line flux, shape, and distance dependence are all consistent with the expected effect of the resonant scattering in the Perseus core. By measuring the ratio of fluxes in optically thick (w) and thin (Fe XXV forbidden, He beta, Ly alpha) lines, and comparing these ratios with predictions from Monte Carlo radiative transfer simulations, the velocities of gas motions have been obtained. The results are consistent with the direct measurements of gas velocities from line broadening described elsewhere in this series, although the systematic and statistical uncertainties remain significant. Further improvements in the predictions of line emissivities in plasma models, and deeper observations with future X-ray missions offering similar or better capabilities to the Hitomi SXS, will enable resonant scattering measurements to provide powerful constraints on the amplitude and anisotropy of cluster gas motions.
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24.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Search for thermal X-ray features from the Crab nebula with the Hitomi soft X-ray spectrometer
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Crab nebula originated from a core-collapse supernova (SN) explosion observed in 1054 AD. When viewed as a supernova remnant (SNR), it has an anomalously low observed ejecta mass and kinetic energy for an Fe-core-collapse SN. Intensive searches have been made for a massive shell that solves this discrepancy, but none has been detected. An alternative idea is that SN 1054 is an electron-capture (EC) explosion with a lower explosion energy by an order of magnitude than Fe-core-collapse SNe. X-ray imaging searches were performed for the plasma emission from the shell in the Crab outskirts to set a stringent upper limit on the X-ray emitting mass. However, the extreme brightness of the source hampers access to its vicinity. We thus employed spectroscopic technique using the X-ray micro-calorimeter on board the Hitomi satellite. By exploiting its superb energy resolution, we set an upper limit for emission or absorption features from as yet undetected thermal plasma in the 2-12 keV range. We also re-evaluated the existing Chandra and XMM-Newton data. By assembling these results, a new upper limit was obtained for the X-ray plasma mass of less than or similar to 1 M-circle dot for a wide range of assumed shell radius, size, and plasma temperature values both in and out of collisional equilibrium. To compare with the observation, we further performed hydrodynamic simulations of the Crab SNR for two SN models (Fe-core versus EC) under two SN environments (uniform interstellar medium versus progenitor wind). We found that the observed mass limit can be compatible with both SN models if the SN environment has a low density of less than or similar to 0.03 cm(-3) (Fe core) or less than or similar to 0.1 cm(-3) (EC) for the uniform density, or a progenitor wind density somewhat less than that provided by amass loss rate of 10(-5) M-circle dot yr(-1) at 20 km s(-1) for the wind environment.
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25.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Solar abundance ratios of the iron-peak elements in the Perseus cluster
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 551:7681, s. 478-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The metal abundance of the hot plasma that permeates galaxy clusters represents the accumulation of heavy elements produced by billions of supernovae(1). Therefore, X-ray spectroscopy of the intracluster medium provides an opportunity to investigate the nature of supernova explosions integrated over cosmic time. In particular, the abundance of the iron-peak elements (chromium, manganese, iron and nickel) is key to understanding how the progenitors of typical type Ia supernovae evolve and explode(2-6). Recent X-ray studies of the intracluster medium found that the abundance ratios of these elements differ substantially from those seen in the Sun(7-11), suggesting differences between the nature of type Ia supernovae in the clusters and in the Milky Way. However, because the K-shell transition lines of chromium and manganese are weak and those of iron and nickel are very close in photon energy, highresolution spectroscopy is required for an accurate determination of the abundances of these elements. Here we report observations of the Perseus cluster, with statistically significant detections of the resonance emission from chromium, manganese and nickel. Our measurements, combined with the latest atomic models, reveal that these elements have near-solar abundance ratios with respect to iron, in contrast to previous claims. Comparison between our results and modern nucleosynthesis calculations(12-14) disfavours the hypothesis that type Ia supernova progenitors are exclusively white dwarfs with masses well below the Chandrasekhar limit (about 1.4 times the mass of the Sun). The observed abundance pattern of the iron-peak elements can be explained by taking into account a combination of near-and sub-Chandrasekhar-mass type Ia supernova systems, adding to the mounting evidence that both progenitor types make a substantial contribution to cosmic chemical enrichment(5,15,16).
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26.
  • Aharonian, Felix, et al. (författare)
  • Temperature structure in the Perseus cluster core observed with Hitomi
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The present paper explains the temperature structure of X-ray emitting plasma in the core of the Perseus cluster based on 1.8-20.0 keV data obtained with the Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS) on board the Hitomi Observatory. A series of four observations was carried out, with a total effective exposure time of 338 ks that covered a central region of similar to 7' in diameter. SXS was operated with an energy resolution of similar to 5 eV (full width at half maximum) at 5.9 keV. Not only fine structures of K-shell lines in He-like ions, but also transitions from higher principal quantum numbers were clearly resolved from Si through Fe. That enabled us to perform temperature diagnostics using the line ratios of Si, S, Ar, Ca, and Fe, and to provide the first direct measurement of the excitation temperature and ionization temperature in the Perseus cluster. The observed spectrum is roughly reproduced by a single-temperature thermal plasma model in collisional ionization equilibrium, but detailed line-ratio diagnostics reveal slight deviations from this approximation. In particular, the data exhibit an apparent trend of increasing ionization temperature with the atomic mass, as well as small differences between the ionization and excitation temperatures for Fe, the only element for which both temperatures could be measured. The best-fit two-temperature models suggest a combination of 3 and 5 keV gas, which is consistent with the idea that the observed small deviations from a single-temperature approximation are due to the effects of projecting the known radial temperature gradient in the cluster core along the line of sight. A comparison with the Chandra/ACIS and the XMM-Newton/RGS results, on the other hand, suggests that additional lower-temperature components are present in the intracluster medium (ICM), but not detectable with Hitomi/SXS giving its 1.8-20 keV energy band.
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27.
  • Doi, Yasuo, et al. (författare)
  • The JCMT BISTRO Survey: Magnetic Fields Associated with a Network of Filaments in NGC 1333
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 899:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present new observations of the active star formation region NGC 1333 in the Perseus molecular cloud complex from the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope B-Fields In Star-forming Region Observations (BISTRO) survey with the POL-2 instrument. The BISTRO data cover the entire NGC 1333 complex (∼1.5 pc ? 2 pc) at 0.02 pc resolution and spatially resolve the polarized emission from individual filamentary structures for the first time. The inferred magnetic field structure is complex as a whole, with each individual filament aligned at different position angles relative to the local field orientation. We combine the BISTRO data with low- and high- resolution data derived from Planck and interferometers to study the multiscale magnetic field structure in this region. The magnetic field morphology drastically changes below a scale of ∼1 pc and remains continuous from the scales of filaments (∼0.1 pc) to that of protostellar envelopes (∼0.005 pc or ∼1000 au). Finally, we construct simple models in which we assume that the magnetic field is always perpendicular to the long axis of the filaments. We demonstrate that the observed variation of the relative orientation between the filament axes and the magnetic field angles are well reproduced by this model, taking into account the projection effects of the magnetic field and filaments relative to the plane of the sky. These projection effects may explain the apparent complexity of the magnetic field structure observed at the resolution of BISTRO data toward the filament network.
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28.
  • Feigin, Valery L, et al. (författare)
  • Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016.
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The New England journal of medicine. - 1533-4406 .- 0028-4793. ; 379:25, s. 2429-2437
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases.We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate.The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation.In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).
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29.
  • Tahani, Mehrnoosh, et al. (författare)
  • JCMT BISTRO Observations: Magnetic Field Morphology of Bubbles Associated with NGC 6334
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 944:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We study the Hii regions associated with the NGC 6334 molecular cloud observed in the submillimeter and taken as part of the B-fields In STar-forming Region Observations Survey. In particular, we investigate the polarization patterns and magnetic field morphologies associated with these Hii regions. Through polarization pattern and pressure calculation analyses, several of these bubbles indicate that the gas and magnetic field lines have been pushed away from the bubble, toward an almost tangential (to the bubble) magnetic field morphology. In the densest part of NGC 6334, where the magnetic field morphology is similar to an hourglass, the polarization observations do not exhibit observable impact from Hii regions. We detect two nested radial polarization patterns in a bubble to the south of NGC 6334 that correspond to the previously observed bipolar structure in this bubble. Finally, using the results of this study, we present steps (incorporating computer vision; circular Hough transform) that can be used in future studies to identify bubbles that have physically impacted magnetic field lines.
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30.
  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9947, s. 957-979
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
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31.
  • Bowden, John A., et al. (författare)
  • Harmonizing lipidomics : NIST interlaboratory comparison exercise for lipidomics using SRM 1950-Metabolites in Frozen Human Plasma
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Journal of Lipid Research. - 0022-2275 .- 1539-7262. ; 58:12, s. 2275-2288
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • As the lipidomics field continues to advance, self-evaluation within the community is critical. Here, we performed an interlaboratory comparison exercise for lipidomics using Standard Reference Material (SRM) 1950-Metabolites in Frozen Human Plasma, a commercially available reference material. The interlaboratory study comprised 31 diverse laboratories, with each laboratory using a different lipidomics workflow. A total of 1,527 unique lipids were measured across all laboratories and consensus location estimates and associated uncertainties were determined for 339 of these lipids measured at the sum composition level by five or more participating laboratories. These evaluated lipids detected in SRM 1950 serve as community-wide benchmarks for intra-and interlaboratory quality control and method validation. These analyses were performed using nonstandardized laboratory-independent workflows. The consensus locations were also compared with a previous examination of SRM 1950 by the LIPID MAPS consortium.jlr While the central theme of the interlaboratory study was to provide values to help harmonize lipids, lipid mediators, and precursor measurements across the community, it was also initiated to stimulate a discussion regarding areas in need of improvement.
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32.
  • Kyu, Hmwe H, et al. (författare)
  • Global and National Burden of Diseases and Injuries Among Children and Adolescents Between 1990 and 2013 : Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study.
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: JAMA pediatrics. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6203 .- 2168-6211. ; 170:3, s. 267-287
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • IMPORTANCE: The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce.OBJECTIVE: To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study.EVIDENCE REVIEW: Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14 244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35 620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates.FINDINGS: Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905 059 deaths; 95% UI, 810 304-998 125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38 325 deaths; 95% UI, 30 365-47 678), and road injuries among adolescents (115 186 deaths; 95% UI, 105 185-124 870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.
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33.
  • Lazaryan, Aleksandr, et al. (författare)
  • Impact of cytogenetic abnormalities on outcomes of adult Philadelphia-negative acute lymphoblastic leukemia after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation : a study by the Acute Leukemia Working Committee of the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Haematologica. - : Ferrata Storti Foundation (Haematologica). - 0390-6078 .- 1592-8721. ; 105:5, s. 1329-1338
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Cytogenetic risk stratification at diagnosis has long been one of the most useful tools to assess prognosis in acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). To examine the prognostic impact of cytogenetic abnormalities on outcomes after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation, we studied 1731 adults with Philadelphia-negative ALL in complete remission who underwent myeloablative or reduced intensity/non-myeloablative conditioning transplant from unrelated or matched sibling donors reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research. A total of 632 patients had abnormal conventional metaphase cytogenetics. The leukemia-free survival and overall survival rates at 5 years after transplantation in patients with abnormal cytogenetics were 40% and 42%, respectively, which were similar to those in patients with a normal karyotype. Of the previously established cytogenetic risk classifications, modified Medical Research Council-Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score was the only independent prognosticator of leukemia-free survival (P=0.03). In the multivariable analysis, monosomy 7 predicted post-transplant relapse [hazard ratio (HR)=2.11; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.04-4.27] and treatment failure (HR=1.97; 95% CI: 1.20-3.24). Complex karyotype was prognostic for relapse (HR=1.69; 95% CI: 1.06-2.69), whereas t(8;14) predicted treatment failure (HR=2.85; 95% CI: 1.35-6.02) and overall mortality (HR=3.03; 95% CI: 1.44-6.41). This large study suggested a novel transplant-specific cytogenetic scheme with adverse [monosomy 7, complex karyotype, del(7q), t(8;14), t(11;19), del(7q), tetraploidy/near triploidy], intermediate (normal karyotype and all other abnormalities), and favorable (high hyperdiploidy) risks to prognosticate leukemia-free survival (P=0.02). Although some previously established high-risk Philadelphia-negative cytogenetic abnormalities in ALL can be overcome by transplantation, monosomy 7, complex karyotype, and t(8;14) continue to pose significant risks and yield inferior outcomes.
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34.
  • Lee, Catherine J., et al. (författare)
  • Late effects after ablative allogeneic stem cell transplantation for adolescent and young adult acute myeloid leukemia
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Blood Advances. - : American Society of Hematology. - 2473-9529 .- 2473-9537. ; 4:6, s. 983-992
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • There is marked paucity of data regarding late effects in adolescents and young adults (AYAs) who undergo myeloablative conditioning (MAC) allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) for acute myeloid leukemia (AML). We evaluated late effects and survival in 826 1-year disease-free survivors of MAC HCT for AYA AML, with an additional focus on comparing late effects based upon MAC type (total body irradiation [TBI] vs high-dose chemotherapy only). The estimated 10-year cumulative incidence of subsequent neoplasms was 4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2%-6%); 10-year cumulative incidence of nonmalignant late effects included gonadal dysfunction (10%; 95% CI, 8%-13%), cataracts (10%; 95% CI, 7%-13%), avascular necrosis (8%; 95% CI, 5%-10%), diabetes mellitus (5%; 95% CI, 3%-7%), and hypothyroidism (3%; 95% CI, 2%-5%). Receipt of TBI was independently associated with a higher risk of cataracts only (hazard ratio [HR], 4.98; P < .0001) whereas chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD) was associated with an increased risk of cataracts (HR, 3.22; P = .0006), avascular necrosis (HR, 2.49; P = .006), and diabetes mellitus (HR, 3.36; P = .03). Estimated 10-year overall survival and leukemia-free survival were 73% and 70%, respectively, and did not differ on the basis of conditioning type. In conclusion, late effects among survivors of MAC HCT for AYA AML are frequent and are more closely linked to cGVHD than type of conditioning.
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35.
  • Wieduwilt, Matthew J., et al. (författare)
  • Haploidentical vs sibling, unrelated, or cord blood hematopoietic cell transplantation for acute lymphoblastic leukemia
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Blood Advances. - : American Society of Hematology. - 2473-9529 .- 2473-9537. ; 6:1, s. 339-357
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The role of haploidentical hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) using posttransplant cyclophosphamide (PTCy) for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is being defined. We performed a retrospective, multivariable analysis comparing outcomes of HCT approaches by donor for adults with ALL in remission. The primary objective was to compare overall survival (OS) among haploidentical HCTs using PTCy and HLA-matched sibling donor (MSD), 8/8 HLAmatched unrelated donor (MUD), 7 /8 HLA-MUD, or umbilical cord blood (UCB) HCT. Comparing haploidentical HCT to MSD HCT, we found that OS, leukemia-free survival (LFS), nonrelapse mortality (NRM), relapse, and acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) were not different but chronic GVHD (cGVHD) was higher in MSD HCT. Compared with MUD HCT, OS, LFS, and relapse were not different, but MUD HCT had increased NRM (hazard ratio [HR], 1.42; P = .02), grade 3 to 4 aGVHD (HR, 1.59; P = .005), and cGVHD. Compared with 7/8 UD HCT, LFS and relapse were not different, but 7/8 UD HCT had worse OS (HR, 1.38; P = .01) and increased NRM (HR, 2.13; P <_ .001), grade 3 to 4 aGVHD (HR, 1.86; P = .003), and cGVHD (HR, 1.72; P <_ .001). Compared with UCB HCT, late OS, late LFS, relapse, and cGVHD were not different but UCB HCT had worse early OS (<_18 months; HR, 1.93; P < .001), worse early LFS (HR, 1.40; P = .007) and increased incidences of NRM (HR, 2.08; P < .001) and grade 3 to 4 aGVHD (HR, 1.97; P < .001). Haploidentical HCT using PTCy showed no difference in survival but less GVHD compared with traditional MSD and MUD HCT and is the preferred alternative donor HCT option for adults with ALL in complete remission.
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36.
  • Afshin, Ashkan, et al. (författare)
  • Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 393:10184, s. 1958-1972
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity.Methods: By use of a comparative risk assessment approach, we estimated the proportion of disease-specific burden attributable to each dietary risk factor (also referred to as population attributable fraction) among adults aged 25 years or older. The main inputs to this analysis included the intake of each dietary factor, the effect size of the dietary factor on disease endpoint, and the level of intake associated with the lowest risk of mortality. Then, by use of diseasespecific population attributable fractions, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we calculated the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to diet for each disease outcome.Findings: In 2017, 11 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 10-12) deaths and 255 million (234-274) DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium (3 million [1-5] deaths and 70 million [34-118] DALYs), low intake of whole grains (3 million [2-4] deaths and 82 million [59-109] DALYs), and low intake of fruits (2 million [1-4] deaths and 65 million [41-92] DALYs) were the leading dietary risk factors for deaths and DALYs globally and in many countries. Dietary data were from mixed sources and were not available for all countries, increasing the statistical uncertainty of our estimates.Interpretation: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the potential impact of suboptimal diet on NCD mortality and morbidity, highlighting the need for improving diet across nations. Our findings will inform implementation of evidence-based dietary interventions and provide a platform for evaluation of their impact on human health annually.
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37.
  • Kahn, Justine M., et al. (författare)
  • Subsequent neoplasms and late mortality in children undergoing allogeneic transplantation for nonmalignant diseases
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Blood Advances. - : AMER SOC HEMATOLOGY. - 2473-9529 .- 2473-9537. ; 4:9, s. 2084-2094
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We examined the risk of subsequent neoplasms (SNs) and late mortality in children and adolescents undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) for nonmalignant diseases (NMDs). Weincluded 6028 patients (median age, 6 years; interquartile range, 1-11; range, <1 to 20) from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (1995-2012) registry. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) in 2-year survivors and standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated to compare mortality and SN rates with expected rates in the general population. Median follow-up of survivors was 7.8 years. Diagnoses included severe aplastic anemia (SAA; 24%), Fanconi anemia (FA; 10%), other marrow failure (6%), hemoglobinopathy (15%), immunodeficiency (23%), and metabolic/leukodystrophy syndrome (22%). Ten-year survival was 93% (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 92% to 94%; SMR, 4.2; 95% CI, 3.7-4.8). Seventy-one patients developed SNs (1.2%). Incidence was highest in FA (5.5%), SAA (1.1%), and other marrow failure syndromes (1.7%); for other NMDs, incidence was <1%. Hematologic (27%), oropharyngeal (25%), and skin cancers (13%) were most common. Leukemia risk was highest in the first 5 years posttransplantation; oropharyngeal, skin, liver, and thyroid tumors primarily occurred after 5 years. Despite a low number of SNs, patients had an 11-fold increased SN risk (SIR, 11; 95% CI, 8.9-13.9) compared with the general population. We report excellent long-term survival and low SN incidence in an international cohort of children undergoing HCT for NMDs. The risk of SN development was highest in patients with FA and marrow failure syndromes, highlighting the need for long-term posttransplantation surveillance in this population.
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38.
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39.
  • Mehta, Rohtesh S., et al. (författare)
  • Composite GRFS and CRFS Outcomes After Adult Alternative Donor HCT
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Oncology. - : American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO). - 0732-183X .- 1527-7755. ; 38:18, s. 2062-2076
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • PURPOSE There is no consensus on the best choice of an alternative donor (umbilical cord blood [UCB], haploidentical, one-antigen mismatched [7/8]-bone marrow [BM], or 7/8-peripheral blood [PB]) for hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) for patients lacking an HLA-matched related or unrelated donor.METHODS We report composite end points of graft-versus-host disease (GVHD)-free relapse-free survival (GRFS) and chronic GVHD (cGVHD)-free relapse-free survival (CRFS) in 2,198 patients who underwent UCB (n = 838), haploidentical (n = 159), 7/8-BM (n = 241), or 7/8-PB (n = 960) HCT. All groups were divided by myeloablative conditioning (MAC) intensity or reduced intensity conditioning (RIC), except haploidentical group in which most received RIC. To account for multiple testing, P < .0071 in multivariable analysis and P < .00025 in direct pairwise comparisons were considered statistically significant.RESULTS In multivariable analysis, haploidentical group had the best GRFS, CRFS, and overall survival (OS). In the direct pairwise comparison of other groups, among those who received MAC, there was no difference in GRFS or CRFS among UCB, 7/8-BM, and 7/8-PB with serotherapy (alemtuzumab or antithymocyte globulin) groups. In contrast, the 7/8-PB without serotherapy group had significantly inferior GRFS, higher cGVHD, and a trend toward worse CRFS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.38; 95% CI, 1.13 to 1.69; P = .002) than the 7/8-BM group and higher cGVHD and trend toward inferior CRFS (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.63; P = .0006) than the UCB group. Among patients with RIC, all groups had significantly inferior GRFS and CRFS compared with the haploidentical group.CONCLUSION Recognizing the limitations of a registry retrospective analysis and the possibility of center selection bias in choosing donors, our data support the use of UCB, 7/8-BM, or 7/8-PB (with serotherapy) grafts for patients undergoing MAC HCT and haploidentical grafts for patients undergoing RIC HCT. The haploidentical group had the best GRFS, CRFS, and OS of all groups.
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40.
  • Metheny, Leland, et al. (författare)
  • Allogeneic Transplantation to Treat Therapy-Related Myelodysplastic Syndrome and Acute Myelogenous Leukemia in Adults
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Transplantation and Cellular Therapy. - : Elsevier. - 2666-6375 .- 2666-6367. ; 27:11, s. 923.e1-923.e12
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Patients who develop therapy-related myeloid neoplasm, either myelodysplastic syndrome (t-MDS) or acute myelogenous leukemia (t-AML), have a poor prognosis. An earlier Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) analysis of 868 allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantations (allo-HCTs) performed between 1990 and 2004 showed a 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) of 22% and 21%, respectively. Modern supportive care, graft-versus-host disease prophylaxis, and reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) regimens have led to improved outcomes. Therefore, the CIBMTR analyzed 1531 allo-HCTs performed in adults with t-MDS (n = 759) or t-AML (n = 772) between and 2000 and 2014. The median age was 59 years (range, 18 to 74 years) for the patients with t-MDS and 52 years (range, 18 to 77 years) for those with tAML. Twenty-four percent of patients with t-MDS and 11% of those with t-AML had undergone a previous autologous (auto-) HCT. A myeloablative conditioning (MAC) regimen was used in 49% of patients with t-MDS and 61% of patients with t-AML. Nonrelapse mortality at 5 years was 34% (95% confidence interval [CI], 30% to 37%) for patients with t-MDS and 34% (95% CI, 30% to 37%) for those with t-AML. Relapse rates at 5 years in the 2 groups were 46% (95% CI, 43% to 50%) and 43% (95% CI, 40% to 47%). Five-year OS and DFS were 27% (95% CI, 23% to 31%) and 19% (95% CI, 16% to 23%), respectively, for patients with t-MDS and 25% (95% CI, 22% to 28%) and 23% (95% CI, 20% to 26%), respectively, for those with t-AML. In multivariate analysis, OS and DFS were significantly better in young patients with low-risk t-MDS and those with t-AML undergoing HCT with MAC while in first complete remission, but worse for those with previous auto-HCT, higher-risk cytogenetics or Revised International Prognostic Scoring System score, and a partially matched unrelated donor. Relapse remains the major cause of treatment failure, with little improvement seen over the past 2 decades. These data mandate caution when recommending allo-HCT in these conditions and indicate the need for more effective antineoplastic approaches before and after allo-HCT.
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41.
  • Proletov, Ian, et al. (författare)
  • Primary and secondary glomerulonephritides 1.
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1460-2385. ; 29 Suppl 3:May, s. 186-200
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
  •  
42.
  • Reitsma, Marissa B., et al. (författare)
  • Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 389:10082, s. 1885-1906
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.2-25.7) for men and 5.4% (5.1-5.7) for women, representing 28.4% (25.8-31.1) and 34.4% (29.4-38.6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11.5% of global deaths (6.4 million [95% UI 5.7-7.0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52.2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.
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43.
  • Silvano, Alessandro, et al. (författare)
  • Observing Antarctic Bottom Water in the Southern Ocean
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Frontiers in Marine Science. - 2296-7745. ; 10
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Dense, cold waters formed on Antarctic continental shelves descend along the Antarctic continental margin, where they mix with other Southern Ocean waters to form Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). AABW then spreads into the deepest parts of all major ocean basins, isolating heat and carbon from the atmosphere for centuries. Despite AABW's key role in regulating Earth's climate on long time scales and in recording Southern Ocean conditions, AABW remains poorly observed. This lack of observational data is mostly due to two factors. First, AABW originates on the Antarctic continental shelf and slope where in situ measurements are limited and ocean observations by satellites are hampered by persistent sea ice cover and long periods of darkness in winter. Second, north of the Antarctic continental slope, AABW is found below approximately 2 km depth, where in situ observations are also scarce and satellites cannot provide direct measurements. Here, we review progress made during the past decades in observing AABW. We describe 1) long-term monitoring obtained by moorings, by ship-based surveys, and beneath ice shelves through bore holes; 2) the recent development of autonomous observing tools in coastal Antarctic and deep ocean systems; and 3) alternative approaches including data assimilation models and satellite-derived proxies. The variety of approaches is beginning to transform our understanding of AABW, including its formation processes, temporal variability, and contribution to the lower limb of the global ocean meridional overturning circulation. In particular, these observations highlight the key role played by winds, sea ice, and the Antarctic Ice Sheet in AABW-related processes. We conclude by discussing future avenues for observing and understanding AABW, impressing the need for a sustained and coordinated observing system.
  •  
44.
  • Zhou, Zheng, et al. (författare)
  • Reduced intensity conditioning for acute myeloid leukemia using melphalan- vs busulfan-based regimens : a CIBMTR report
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Blood Advances. - : American Society of Hematology. - 2473-9529 .- 2473-9537. ; 4:13, s. 3180-3190
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • There is a lack of large comparative study on the outcomes of reduced intensity conditioning (RIC) in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) transplantation using fludarabine/busulfan (FB) and fludarabine/melphalan (FM) regimens. Adult AML patients from Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research who received first RIC allo-transplant between 2001 and 2015 were studied. Patients were excluded if they received cord blood or identical twin transplant, total body irradiation in conditioning, or graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis with in vitro T-cell depletion. Primary outcome was overall survival (OS), secondary end points were leukemia-free survival (LFS), nonrelapse mortality (NRM), relapse, and GVHD. Multivariate survival model was used with adjustment for patient, leukemia, and transplant-related factors. A total of 622 patients received FM and 791 received FB RIC. Compared with FB, the FM group had fewer transplant in complete remission (CR), fewer matched sibling donors, and less usage of anti-thymocyte globulin or alemtuzumab. More patients in the FM group received marrow grafts and had transplantation before 2005. OS was significantly lower within the first 3 months posttransplant in the FM group (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.82, P < .001), but was marginally superior beyond 3 months (HR = 0.87, P = .05). LFS was better with FM compared with FB (HR = 0.89, P = .05). NRM was significantly increased in the FM group during the first 3 months of posttransplant (HR = 3.85, P < .001). Long-term relapse was lower with FM (HR = 0.65, P < .001). Analysis restricted to patients with CR showed comparable results. In conclusion, compared with FB, the FM RIC showed a marginally superior long-term OS and LFS and a lower relapse rate. A lower OS early posttransplant within 3 months was largely the result of a higher early NRM.
  •  
45.
  • Arai, Sally, et al. (författare)
  • Increasing incidence of chronic graft-versus-host disease in allogeneic transplantation : a report from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research.
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Biology of blood and marrow transplantation. - : Elsevier BV. - 1083-8791 .- 1523-6536. ; 21:2, s. 266-74
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Although transplant practices have changed over the last decades, no information is available on trends in incidence and outcome of chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD) over time. This study used the central database of the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) to describe time trends for cGVHD incidence, nonrelapse mortality, and risk factors for cGVHD. The 12-year period was divided into 3 intervals, 1995 to 1999, 2000 to 2003, and 2004 to 2007, and included 26,563 patients with acute leukemia, chronic myeloid leukemia, and myelodysplastic syndrome. Multivariate analysis showed an increased incidence of cGVHD in more recent years (odds ratio = 1.19, P < .0001), and this trend was still seen when adjusting for donor type, graft type, or conditioning intensity. In patients with cGVHD, nonrelapse mortality has decreased over time, but at 5 years there were no significant differences among different time periods. Risk factors for cGVHD were in line with previous studies. This is the first comprehensive characterization of the trends in cGVHD incidence and underscores the mounting need for addressing this major late complication of transplantation in future research.
  •  
46.
  • Beaney, Thomas, et al. (författare)
  • May measurement month 2019 : The global blood pressure screening campaign of the international society of hypertension
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Hypertension. - 0194-911X. ; 76:2, s. 333-341
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Elevated blood pressure remains the single biggest risk factor contributing to the global burden of disease and mortality. May Measurement Month is an annual global screening campaign aiming to improve awareness of blood pressure at the individual and population level. Adults (≥18 years) recruited through opportunistic sampling were screened at sites in 92 countries during May 2019. Ideally, 3 blood pressure readings were measured for each participant, and data on lifestyle factors and comorbidities were collected. Hypertension was defined as a systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg, or a diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg (mean of the second and third readings) or taking antihypertensive medication. When necessary, multiple imputation was used to estimate participants' mean blood pressure. Mixed-effects models were used to evaluate associations between blood pressure and participant characteristics. Of 1 508 130 screenees 482 273 (32.0%) had never had a blood pressure measurement before and 513 337 (34.0%) had hypertension, of whom 58.7% were aware, and 54.7% were on antihypertensive medication. Of those on medication, 57.8% were controlled to <140/90 mm Hg, and 28.9% to <130/80 mm Hg. Of all those with hypertension, 31.7% were controlled to <140/90 mm Hg, and 350 825 (23.3%) participants had untreated or inadequately treated hypertension. Of those taking antihypertensive medication, half were taking only a single drug, and 25% reported using aspirin inappropriately. This survey is the largest ever synchronized and standardized contemporary compilation of global blood pressure data. This campaign is needed as a temporary substitute for systematic blood pressure screening in many countries worldwide.
  •  
47.
  • Buchbinder, David, et al. (författare)
  • Predictors of Loss to Follow-Up Among Pediatric and Adult Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Survivors : A Report from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Biology of blood and marrow transplantation. - : Elsevier. - 1083-8791 .- 1523-6536. ; 26:3, s. 553-561
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Follow-up is integral for hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) care to ensure surveillance and intervention for complications. We characterized the incidence of and predictors for being lost to follow-up. Two-year survivors of first allogeneic HCT (10,367 adults and 3865 children) or autologous HCT (7291 adults and 467 children) for malignant/nonmalignant disorders between 2002 and 2013 reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research were selected. The cumulative incidence of being lost to follow-up (defined as having missed 2 consecutive follow-up reporting periods) was calculated. Marginal Cox models (adjusted for center effect) were fit to evaluate predictors. The 10-year cumulative incidence of being lost to follow-up was 13% (95% confidence interval [CI], 12% to 14%) in adult allogeneic HCT survivors, 15% (95% CI, 14% to 16%) in adult autologous HCT survivors, 25% (95% CI, 24% to 27%) in pediatric allogeneic HCT survivors, and 24% (95% CI, 20% to 29%) in pediatric autologous HCT survivors. Factors associated with being lost to follow-up include younger age, nonmalignant disease, public/no insurance (reference: private), residence farther from the tranplantation center, and being unmarried in adult allogeneic HCT survivors; older age and testicular/germ cell tumor (reference: non-Hodgkin lymphoma) in adult autologous HCT survivors; older age, public/no insurance (reference: private), and nonmalignant disease in pediatric allogeneic HCT survivors; and older age in pediatric autologous HCT survivors. Follow-up focusing on minimizing attrition in high-risk groups is needed to ensure surveillance for late effects.
  •  
48.
  • Chhabra, Saurabh, et al. (författare)
  • Myeloablative vs reduced-intensity conditioning allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for chronic myeloid leukemia
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Blood Advances. - : American Society of Hematology. - 2473-9529 .- 2473-9537. ; 2:21, s. 2922-2936
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) is a potentially curative treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). Optimal conditioning intensity for allo-HCT for CML in the era of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) is unknown. Using the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research database, we sought to determine whether reduced-intensity/nonmyeloablative conditioning (RIC) allo-HCT and myeloablative conditioning (MAC) result in similar outcomes in CML patients. We evaluated 1395 CML allo-HCT recipients between the ages of 18 and 60 years. The disease status at transplant was divided into the following categories: chronic phase 1, chronic phase 2 or greater, and accelerated phase. Patients in blast phase at transplant and alternative donor transplants were excluded. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS) after allo-HCT. MAC (n = 1204) and RIC allo-HCT recipients (n = 191) from 2007 to 2014 were included. Patient, disease, and transplantation characteristics were similar, with a few exceptions. Multivariable analysis showed no significant difference in OS between MAC and RIC groups. In addition, leukemia-free survival and nonrelapse mortality did not differ significantly between the 2 groups. Compared with MAC, the RIC group had a higher risk of early relapse after allo-HCT (hazard ratio [HR], 1.85; P = .001). The cumulative incidence of chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD) was lower with RIC than with MAC (HR, 0.77; P = .02). RIC provides similar survival and lower cGVHD compared with MAC and therefore may be a reasonable alternative to MAC for CML patients in the TKI era.
  •  
49.
  • Deol, Abhinav, et al. (författare)
  • Does FLT3 Mutation Impact Survival After Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation for Acute Myeloid Leukemia? : A Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) Analysis
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0008-543X .- 1097-0142. ; 122:19, s. 3005-3014
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Patients with FMS like tyrosine kinase 3 (FLT3)-mutated acute myeloid leukemia (AML) have a poor prognosis and are referred for early allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT). METHODS: Data from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) were used to evaluate 511 adult patients with de novo AML who underwent HCT during 2008 through 2011 to determine whether FLT3 mutations had an impact on HCT outcomes. RESULTS: In total, 158 patients (31%) had FLT3 mutations. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed an increased risk of relapse at 3 years in the FLT3 mutated group compared with the wild-type (WT) group (38% [95% confidence interval (CI), 30%-45%] vs 28% [95% CI, 24%-33%]; P = .04; relative risk, 1.60 [95% CI, 1.15-2.22]; P = .0048). However, FLT3 mutation status was not significantly associated with nonrelapse mortality, leukemia-free survival, or overall survival. Although more patients in the FLT3 mutated group died from relapsed primary disease compared with those in the WT group (60% vs 46%), the 3-year overall survival rate was comparable for the 2 groups (mutated group: 49%; 95% CI, 40%-57%; WT group: 55%, 95% CI, 50%-60%; P = .20). CONCLUSIONS: The current data indicate that FLT3 mutation status did not adversely impact overall survival after HCT, and about 50% of patients with this mutation who underwent HCT were long-term survivors.
  •  
50.
  • Furtak, Lukas J., et al. (författare)
  • A variable active galactic nucleus at z = 2.06 triply-imaged by the galaxy cluster MACS J0035.4−2015
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 522:4, s. 5142-5151
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We report the discovery of a triply imaged active galactic nucleus (AGN), lensed by the galaxy cluster MACS J0035.4−2015 (z d = 0.352). The object is detected in Hubble Space Telescope imaging taken for the RELICS program. It appears to have a quasi-stellar nucleus consistent with a point-source, with a de-magnified radius of re ≲ 100 pc. The object is spectroscopically confirmed to be an AGN at z spec = 2.063 ± 0.005 showing broad rest-frame UV emission lines, and detected in both X-ray observations with Chandra and in ALCS ALMA band 6 (1.2 mm) imaging. It has a relatively faint rest-frame UV luminosity for a quasar-like object, MUV, 1450 = −19.7 ± 0.2. The object adds to just a few quasars or other X-ray sources known to be multiply lensed by a galaxy cluster. Some diffuse emission from the host galaxy is faintly seen around the nucleus, and there is a faint object nearby sharing the same multiple-imaging symmetry and geometric redshift, possibly an interacting galaxy or a star-forming knot in the host. We present an accompanying lens model, calculate the magnifications and time delays, and infer the physical properties of the source. We find the rest-frame UV continuum and emission lines to be dominated by the AGN, and the optical emission to be dominated by the host galaxy of modest stellar mass M✶ ≃ 109.2 M⊙. We also observe some variation in the AGN emission with time, which may suggest that the AGN used to be more active. This object adds a low-redshift counterpart to several relatively faint AGN recently uncovered at high redshifts with HST and JWST.
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