| 1. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 2. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of High Energy Physics. - : Springer. - 1029-8479 .- 1126-6708. ; :12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 3. |
- Ackley, K., et al.
(författare)
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Observational constraints on the optical and near-infrared emission from the neutron star-black hole binary merger candidate S190814bv
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 643
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Gravitational wave (GW) astronomy has rapidly reached maturity, becoming a fundamental observing window for modern astrophysics. The coalescences of a few tens of black hole (BH) binaries have been detected, while the number of events possibly including a neutron star (NS) is still limited to a few. On 2019 August 14, the LIGO and Virgo interferometers detected a high-significance event labelled S190814bv. A preliminary analysis of the GW data suggests that the event was likely due to the merger of a compact binary system formed by a BH and a NS.Aims. In this paper, we present our extensive search campaign aimed at uncovering the potential optical and near infrared electromagnetic counterpart of S190814bv. We found no convincing electromagnetic counterpart in our data. We therefore use our non-detection to place limits on the properties of the putative outflows that could have been produced by the binary during and after the merger.Methods. Thanks to the three-detector observation of S190814bv, and given the characteristics of the signal, the LIGO and Virgo Collaborations delivered a relatively narrow localisation in low latency - a 50% (90%) credible area of 5 deg(2) (23 deg(2)) - despite the relatively large distance of 26752 Mpc. ElectromagNetic counterparts of GRAvitational wave sources at the VEry Large Telescope collaboration members carried out an intensive multi-epoch, multi-instrument observational campaign to identify the possible optical and near infrared counterpart of the event. In addition, the ATLAS, GOTO, GRAWITA-VST, Pan-STARRS, and VINROUGE projects also carried out a search on this event. In this paper, we describe the combined observational campaign of these groups.Results. Our observations allow us to place limits on the presence of any counterpart and discuss the implications for the kilonova (KN), which was possibly generated by this NS-BH merger, and for the strategy of future searches. The typical depth of our wide-field observations, which cover most of the projected sky localisation probability (up to 99.8%, depending on the night and filter considered), is r similar to 22 (resp. K similar to 21) in the optical (resp. near infrared). We reach deeper limits in a subset of our galaxy-targeted observations, which cover a total similar to 50% of the galaxy-mass-weighted localisation probability. Altogether, our observations allow us to exclude a KN with large ejecta mass M greater than or similar to 0.1 M-circle dot to a high (> 90%) confidence, and we can exclude much smaller masses in a sub-sample of our observations. This disfavours the tidal disruption of the neutron star during the merger.Conclusions. Despite the sensitive instruments involved in the campaign, given the distance of S190814bv, we could not reach sufficiently deep limits to constrain a KN comparable in luminosity to AT 2017gfo on a large fraction of the localisation probability. This suggests that future (likely common) events at a few hundred megaparsecs will be detected only by large facilities with both a high sensitivity and large field of view. Galaxy-targeted observations can reach the needed depth over a relevant portion of the localisation probability with a smaller investment of resources, but the number of galaxies to be targeted in order to get a fairly complete coverage is large, even in the case of a localisation as good as that of this event.
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| 4. |
- Biermann, F., et al.
(författare)
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Navigating the Anthropocene: Improving Earth System Governance
- 2012
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 1095-9203 .- 0036-8075. ; 335:6074, s. 1306-1307
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The United Nations conference in Rio de Janeiro in June is an important opportunity to improve the institutional framework for sustainable development.
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| 5. |
- Chapin, III F.S., et al.
(författare)
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Resilience-based stewardship : Strategies for navigating sustainable pathways in a changing world.
- 2009
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Ingår i: Principles of ecosystem stewardship. - New York : Springer Verlag. - 9780387730332 ; , s. 319-337
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Bokkapitel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Accelerated global changes in climate, environment, and social–ecological systems demand a transformation in human perceptions of our place in nature and patterns of resource use. The biology and culture of Homo sapiens evolved for about 95% of our species’ history in hunting-and-gathering societies before the emergence of settled agriculture. We have lived in complex societies for about 3%, and in industrial societies using fossil fuels for about 0.1% of our history. The pace of cultural evolution, including governance arrangements and resource-use patterns, appears insufficient to adjust to the rate and magnitude of technological innovations, human population increases, and environmental impacts that have occurred. Many of these changes are accelerating, causing unsustainable exploitation of ecosystems, including many boreal and tropical forests, drylands, and marine fisheries. The net effect has been serious degradation of the planet’s life-support system on which societal development ultimately depends (see Chapters 2 and 14.
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| 6. |
- McBrien, O. R., et al.
(författare)
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PS15cey and PS17cke : prospective candidates from the Pan-STARRS Search for kilonovae
- 2021
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 500:3, s. 4213-4228
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Time domain astronomy was revolutionized with the discovery of the first kilonova, AT2017gfo, in August 2017, which was associated with the gravitational wave signal GW170817. Since this event, numerous wide-field surveys have been optimizing search strategies to maximize their efficiency of detecting these fast and faint transients. With the Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS), we have been conducting a volume-limited survey for intrinsically faint and fast-fading events to a distance of D similar or equal to 200 Mpc. Two promising candidates have been identified from this archival search, with sparse data - PS15cey and PS17cke. Here, we present more detailed analysis and discussion of their nature. We observe that PS15cey was a luminous, fast-declining transient at 320 Mpc. Models of BH-NS mergers with a very stiff equation of state could possibly reproduce the luminosity and decline but the physical parameters are extreme. A more likely scenario is that this was an AT2018kzr-like merger event. PS17cke was a faint and fast-declining event at 15 Mpc. We explore several explosion scenarios of this transient including models of it as a NS-NS and BH-NS merger, the outburst of a massive luminous star, and compare it against other known fast-fading transients. Although there is uncertainty in the explosion scenario due to difficulty in measuring the explosion epoch, we find PS17cke to be a plausible kilonova candidate from the model comparisons.
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| 7. |
- Smith, K. W., et al.
(författare)
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Design and Operation of the ATLAS Transient Science Server
- 2020
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Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. - : IOP Publishing. - 0004-6280 .- 1538-3873. ; 132:1014
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Asteroid Terrestrial impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) system consists of two 0.5 m Schmidt telescopes with cameras covering 29 square degrees at plate scale of 1.86 arcsec per pixel. Working in tandem, the telescopes routinely survey the whole sky visible from Hawaii (above delta > -50 degrees) every two nights, exposing four times per night, typically reaching o < 19 magnitude per exposure when the moon is illuminated and c < 19.5 magnitude per exposure in dark skies. Construction is underway of two further units to be sited in Chile and South Africa which will result in an all-sky daily cadence from 2021. Initially designed for detecting potentially hazardous near earth objects, the ATLAS data enable a range of astrophysical time domain science. To extract transients from the data stream requires a computing system to process the data, assimilate detections in time and space and associate them with known astrophysical sources. Here we describe the hardware and software infrastructure to produce a stream of clean, real, astrophysical transients in real time. This involves machine learning and boosted decision tree algorithms to identify extragalactic and Galactic transients. Typically we detect 10-15 supernova candidates per night which we immediately announce publicly. The ATLAS discoveries not only enable rapid follow-up of interesting sources but will provide complete statistical samples within the local volume of 100 Mpc. A simple comparison of the detected supernova rate within 100 Mpc, with no corrections for completeness, is already significantly higher (factor 1.5 to 2) than the current accepted rates.
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| 8. |
- Srivastav, Shubham, et al.
(författare)
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SN 2020kyg and the rates of faint Iax supernovae from ATLAS
- 2022
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 511:2, s. 2708-2731
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present multiwavelength follow-up observations of the ATLAS discovered faint Iax supernova SN 2020kyg that peaked at an absolute magnitude of Mg ≈ −14.9 ± 0.2, making it another member of the faint Iax supernova population. The bolometric light curve requires only ≈7 × 10−3 M⊙ of radioactive 56Ni, with an ejected mass of Mej ∼ 0.4 M⊙ and a low kinetic energy of E ≈ 0.05 ± 0.02 × 1051 erg. We construct a homogeneous volume-limited sample of 902 transients observed by ATLAS within 100 Mpc during a 3.5 yr span. Using this sample, we constrain the rates of faint Iax (Mr ≳ −16) events within 60 Mpc at 12+14−8 per cent12−8+14 per cent of the SN Ia rate. The overall Iax rate, at 15+17−9 per cent15−9+17 per cent of the Ia rate, is dominated by the low-luminosity events, with luminous SNe Iax (Mr ≲ −17.5) like 2002cx and 2005hk, accounting for only 0.9+1.1−0.5 per cent0.9−0.5+1.1 per cent of the Ia rate (a 2σ upper limit of approximately 3 per cent). We favour the hybrid CONe WD + He star progenitor channel involving a failed deflagration of a near Chandrasekhar mass white dwarf, expected to leave a bound remnant and a surviving secondary companion, as a candidate explanation for faint Iax explosions. This scenario requires short delay times, consistent with the observed environments of SNe Iax. Furthermore, binary population synthesis calculations have suggested rates of 1−18 per cent1−18 per cent of the SN Ia rate for this channel, consistent with our rate estimates.
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| 9. |
- Aad, G, et al.
(författare)
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- 2015
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swepub:Mat__t
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