| 1. |
- Abrams, Jesse F., et al.
(författare)
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Committed Global Warming Risks Triggering Multiple Climate Tipping Points
- 2023
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Ingår i: Earth's Future. - 2328-4277. ; 11:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5(degrees)C assume planetary-scale carbon dioxide removal sufficient to exceed anthropogenic emissions, resulting in radiative forcing falling and temperatures stabilizing. However, such removal technology may prove unfeasible for technical, environmental, political, or economic reasons, resulting in continuing greenhouse gas emissions from hard-to-mitigate sectors. This may lead to constant concentration scenarios, where net anthropogenic emissions remain non-zero but small, and are roughly balanced by natural carbon sinks. Such a situation would keep atmospheric radiative forcing roughly constant. Fixed radiative forcing creates an equilibrium committed warming, captured in the concept of equilibrium climate sensitivity. This scenario is rarely analyzed as a potential extension to transient climate scenarios. Here, we aim to understand the planetary response to such fixed concentration commitments, with an emphasis on assessing the resulting likelihood of exceeding temperature thresholds that trigger climate tipping points. We explore transients followed by respective equilibrium committed warming initiated under low to high emission scenarios. We find that the likelihood of crossing the 1.5(degrees)C threshold and the 2.0(degrees)C threshold is 83% and 55%, respectively, if today's radiative forcing is maintained until achieving equilibrium global warming. Under the scenario that best matches current national commitments (RCP4.5), we estimate that in the transient stage, two tipping points will be crossed. If radiative forcing is then held fixed after the year 2100, a further six tipping point thresholds are crossed. Achieving a trajectory similar to RCP2.6 requires reaching net-zero emissions rapidly, which would greatly reduce the likelihood of tipping events.
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| 2. |
- Bai, Xuemei, et al.
(författare)
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Translating Earth system boundaries for cities and businesses
- 2024
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - 2398-9629. ; 7, s. 108-119
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Operating within safe and just Earth system boundaries requires mobilizing key actors across scale to set targets and take actions accordingly. Robust, transparent and fair cross-scale translation methods are essential to help navigate through the multiple steps of scientific and normative judgements in translation, with clear awareness of associated assumptions, bias and uncertainties. Here, through literature review and expert elicitation, we identify commonly used sharing approaches, illustrate ten principles of translation and present a protocol involving key building blocks and control steps in translation. We pay particular attention to businesses and cities, two understudied but critical actors to bring on board.
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| 3. |
- Obura, David O., et al.
(författare)
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Achieving a nature- and people-positive future
- 2023
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Ingår i: One Earth. - : Elsevier BV. - 2590-3330 .- 2590-3322. ; 6:2, s. 105-117
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite decades of increasing investment in conservation, we have not succeeded in “bending the curve” of biodiversity decline. Efforts to meet new targets and goals for the next three decades risk repeating this outcome due to three factors: neglect of increasing drivers of decline; unrealistic expectations and time frames of biodiversity recovery; and insufficient attention to justice within and between generations and across countries. Our Earth system justice approach identifies six sets of actions that when tackled simultaneously address these failings: (1) reduce and reverse direct and indirect drivers causing decline; (2) halt and reverse biodiversity loss; (3) restore and regenerate biodiversity to a safe state; (4) raise minimum wellbeing for all; (5) eliminate over-consumption and excesses associated with accumulation of capital; and (6) uphold and respect the rights and responsibilities of all communities, present and future. Current conservation campaigns primarily address actions 2 and 3, with urgent upscaling of actions 1, 4, 5, and 6 needed to help deliver the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.
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| 4. |
- Pradhan, Prajal, et al.
(författare)
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Methods for Analysing Steering Effects of Global Goals
- 2022
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Ingår i: The Political Impact of the Sustainable Development Goals : Transforming Governance Through Global Goals? - Transforming Governance Through Global Goals?. - : Cambridge University Press. - 9781316514290 - 9781009082945 ; , s. 172-203
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This chapter provides an overview of the multi-faceted landscape of methods used to study the steering effects of the Sustainable Development Goals. After a discussion of the political use of science and the complex relations between science and politics, the chapter showcases a selection of different methods that are employed to trace the steering effects of the Sustainable Development Goals. Selecting the most suitable method for a particular research question requires understanding their main characteristics, strengths and weaknesses. The chapter highlights that all methods and tools need to be combined to comprehensively assess the political impact of the goals, the progress towards their achievement, and their overall transformative potential. As data gaps and unequal geographical coverage still hamper a broader understanding of the political impact of the global goals, we need to build bridges across language communities, disciplines and methodological camps, which still work very much in isolation.
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| 5. |
- Rammelt, Crelis F., et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of meeting minimum access on critical earth systems amidst the Great Inequality
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2398-9629. ; 6:2, s. 212-221
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Sustainable Development Goals aim to improve access to resources and services, reduce environmental degradation, eradicate poverty and reduce inequality. However, the magnitude of the environmental burden that would arise from meeting the needs of the poorest is under debate—especially when compared to much larger burdens from the rich. We show that the ‘Great Acceleration’ of human impacts was characterized by a ‘Great Inequality’ in using and damaging the environment. We then operationalize ‘just access’ to minimum energy, water, food and infrastructure. We show that achieving just access in 2018, with existing inequalities, technologies and behaviours, would have produced 2–26% additional impacts on the Earth’s natural systems of climate, water, land and nutrients—thus further crossing planetary boundaries. These hypothetical impacts, caused by about a third of humanity, equalled those caused by the wealthiest 1–4%. Technological and behavioural changes thus far, while important, did not deliver just access within a stable Earth system. Achieving these goals therefore calls for a radical redistribution of resources.
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| 6. |
- Rockström, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Identifying a Safe and Just Corridor for People and the Planet
- 2021
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Ingår i: Earth's Future. - 2328-4277. ; 9:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Keeping the Earth system in a stable and resilient state, to safeguard Earth's life support systems while ensuring that Earth's benefits, risks, and related responsibilities are equitably shared, constitutes the grand challenge for human development in the Anthropocene. Here, we describe a framework that the recently formed Earth Commission will use to define and quantify target ranges for a safe and just corridor that meets these goals. Although safe and just Earth system targets are interrelated, we see safe as primarily referring to a stable Earth system and just targets as being associated with meeting human needs and reducing exposure to risks. To align safe and just dimensions, we propose to address the equity dimensions of each safe target for Earth system regulating systems and processes. The more stringent of the safe or just target ranges then defines the corridor. Identifying levers of social transformation aimed at meeting the safe and just targets and challenges associated with translating the corridor to actors at multiple scales present scope for future work.
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| 7. |
- Stewart-Koster, Ben, et al.
(författare)
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Living within the safe and just Earth system boundaries for blue water
- 2024
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - 2398-9629. ; 7:1, s. 53-63
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for surface water and groundwater (blue water) have been defined for sustainable water management in the Anthropocene. Here we assessed whether minimum human needs could be met with surface water from within individual river basins alone and, where this is not possible, quantified how much groundwater would be required. Approximately 2.6 billion people live in river basins where groundwater is needed because they are already outside the surface water ESB or have insufficient surface water to meet human needs and the ESB. Approximately 1.4 billion people live in river basins where demand-side transformations would be required as they either exceed the surface water ESB or face a decline in groundwater recharge and cannot meet minimum needs within the ESB. A further 1.5 billion people live in river basins outside the ESB, with insufficient surface water to meet minimum needs, requiring both supply- and demand-side transformations. These results highlight the challenges and opportunities of meeting even basic human access needs to water and protecting aquatic ecosystems.
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| 8. |
- van Vuuren, Detlef P., et al.
(författare)
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Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050
- 2022
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Ingår i: One Earth. - : Elsevier BV. - 2590-3330 .- 2590-3322. ; 5:2, s. 142-156
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- With the establishment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), countries worldwide agreed to a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable future for all. This ambition, however, exposes a critical gap in science-based insights, namely on how to achieve the 17 SDGs simultaneously. Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could help explore the needed systems' transformations. This requires a clear definition of the "target space." The 169 targets and 232 indicators used for monitoring SDG implementation cannot be used for this; they are too many, too broad, unstructured, and sometimes not formulated quantitatively. Here, we propose a streamlined set of science-based indicators and associated target values that are quantifiable and actionable to make scenario analysis meaningful, relevant, and simple enough to be transparent and communicable. The 36 targets are based on the SDGs, existing multilateral agreements, literature, and expert assessment. They include 2050 as a longer-term reference point. This target space can guide researchers in developing new sustainable development pathways.
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