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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 3. |
- Gregson, J., et al.
(författare)
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Cardiovascular Risk Factors Associated With Venous Thromboembolism
- 2019
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Ingår i: JAMA Cardiology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 0965-2590 .- 2380-6583 .- 2380-6591. ; 4:2, s. 163-173
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IMPORTANCE It is uncertain to what extent established cardiovascular risk factors are associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE). OBJECTIVE To estimate the associations of major cardiovascular risk factors with VTE, ie, deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This study included individual participant data mostly from essentially population-based cohort studies from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 731728 participants; 75 cohorts; years of baseline surveys, February 1960 to June 2008; latest date of follow-up, December 2015) and the UK Biobank (421537 participants; years of baseline surveys, March 2006 to September 2010; latest date of follow-up, February 2016). Participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline were included. Data were analyzed from June 2017 to September 2018. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher usual risk factor levels (or presence/absence). Incident fatal outcomes in ERFC (VTE, 1041; coronary heart disease [CND], 25131) and incident fatal/nonfatal outcomes in UK Biobank (VTE, 2321; CHD, 3385). Hazard ratios were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, diabetes, and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS Of the 731728 participants from the ERFC. 403 396 (55.1%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 51.9 (9.0) years; of the 421537 participants from the UK Biobank, 233 699 (55.4%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 56.4 (8.1) years. Risk factors for VTE included older age (ERFC: HR per decade, 2.67; 95% CI, 2.45-2.91; UK Biobank: HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.71-1.92), current smoking (ERFC: HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.20-1.58; UK Biobank: HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.08-1.40), and BMI (ERFC: HR per 1-SD higher BMI, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35-1.50; UK Biobank: HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.32-1.41). For these factors, there were similar HRs for pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis in UK Biobank (except adiposity was more strongly associated with pulmonary embolism) and similar HRs for unprovoked vs provoked VTE. Apart from adiposity, these risk factors were less strongly associated with VTE than CHD. There were inconsistent associations of VTEs with diabetes and blood pressure across ERFC and UK Biobank, and there was limited ability to study lipid and inflammation markers. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Older age, smoking, and adiposity were consistently associated with higher VTE risk.
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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation
- 2023
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Ingår i: The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology. - : Elsevier. - 2213-8587 .- 2213-8595. ; 11:10, s. 731-742
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy. Methods: For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 high-income countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961–2007, median latest follow-up years 1980–2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU. Findings: For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose–response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43–2·97) when diagnosed at 30–39 years, 2·26 (2·08–2·45) at 40–49 years, 1·84 (1·72–1·97) at 50–59 years, 1·57 (1·47–1·67) at 60–69 years, and 1·39 (1·29–1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier. Interpretation: Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3–4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes. Funding: British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.
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- Wormser, David, et al.
(författare)
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Adult height and the risk of cause-specific death and vascular morbidity in 1 million people : individual participant meta-analysis
- 2012
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Ingår i: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 41:5, s. 1419-1433
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundThe extent to which adult height, a biomarker of the interplay of genetic endowment and early-life experiences, is related to risk of chronic diseases in adulthood is uncertain.MethodsWe calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for height, assessed in increments of 6.5 cm, using individual-participant data on 174 374 deaths or major non-fatal vascular outcomes recorded among 1 085 949 people in 121 prospective studies.ResultsFor people born between 1900 and 1960, mean adult height increased 0.5-1 cm with each successive decade of birth. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking and year of birth, HRs per 6.5 cm greater height were 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.96-0.99) for death from any cause, 0.94 (0.93-0.96) for death from vascular causes, 1.04 (1.03-1.06) for death from cancer and 0.92 (0.90-0.94) for death from other causes. Height was negatively associated with death from coronary disease, stroke subtypes, heart failure, stomach and oral cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental disorders, liver disease and external causes. In contrast, height was positively associated with death from ruptured aortic aneurysm, pulmonary embolism, melanoma and cancers of the pancreas, endocrine and nervous systems, ovary, breast, prostate, colorectum, blood and lung. HRs per 6.5 cm greater height ranged from 1.26 (1.12-1.42) for risk of melanoma death to 0.84 (0.80-0.89) for risk of death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. HRs were not appreciably altered after further adjustment for adiposity, blood pressure, lipids, inflammation biomarkers, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption or socio-economic indicators.ConclusionAdult height has directionally opposing relationships with risk of death from several different major causes of chronic diseases.
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- Gao, W G, et al.
(författare)
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Risk prediction models for the development of diabetes in Mauritian Indians
- 2009
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Ingår i: Diabetic Medicine. - : Wiley. - 0742-3071 .- 1464-5491. ; 26:10, s. 996-1002
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AIMS: To develop risk prediction models of future diabetes in Mauritian Indians. METHODS: Three thousand and ninety-four Mauritian Indians (1141 men, aged 20-65 years) without diabetes in 1987 or 1992 were followed up to 1992 or 1998. Subjects underwent repeated oral glucose tolerance tests and diabetes was diagnosed according to 2006 World Health Organization/International Diabetes Federation criteria. Cox regression models for interval censored data were performed using data from 1544 randomly selected participants. Predicted probabilities for diabetes were calculated and validated in the remaining 1550 subjects. RESULTS: Over 11 years of follow-up, there were 511 cases of diabetes. Among variables tested, family history of diabetes, obesity (body mass index, waist circumference) and glucose were significant predictors of diabetes. Predicted probabilities derived from a simple model fitted with sex, family history of diabetes and obesity ranged from 0.05 to 0.64 in men and 0.03 to 0.49 in women. To predict the onset of diabetes, area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AROC) of predicted probabilities was 0.62 (95% confidence interval, 0.56-0.68) in men and 0.64 (0.59-0.69) in women. At a cut-off point of 0.12, the sensitivity and specificity were 0.72 (0.71-0.74) and 0.47 (0.45-0.49) in men and 0.77 (0.75-0.78) and 0.50 (0.48-0.52) in women, respectively. Addition of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) to the model improved the prediction slightly [AROC curve 0.70 (0.65-0.76) in men, 0.71 (0.67-0.76) in women]. CONCLUSIONS: A diabetes prediction model based on obesity and family history yielded moderate discrimination in Mauritian Indians, which was slightly inferior to the model with the FPG but may be useful in low-income countries to promote identification of people at high risk of diabetes.
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- Kooner, Jaspal S, et al.
(författare)
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Genome-wide association study in individuals of South Asian ancestry identifies six new type 2 diabetes susceptibility loci.
- 2011
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 43:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We carried out a genome-wide association study of type-2 diabetes (T2D) in individuals of South Asian ancestry. Our discovery set included 5,561 individuals with T2D (cases) and 14,458 controls drawn from studies in London, Pakistan and Singapore. We identified 20 independent SNPs associated with T2D at P < 10(-4) for testing in a replication sample of 13,170 cases and 25,398 controls, also all of South Asian ancestry. In the combined analysis, we identified common genetic variants at six loci (GRB14, ST6GAL1, VPS26A, HMG20A, AP3S2 and HNF4A) newly associated with T2D (P = 4.1 × 10(-8) to P = 1.9 × 10(-11)). SNPs at GRB14 were also associated with insulin sensitivity (P = 5.0 × 10(-4)), and SNPs at ST6GAL1 and HNF4A were also associated with pancreatic beta-cell function (P = 0.02 and P = 0.001, respectively). Our findings provide additional insight into mechanisms underlying T2D and show the potential for new discovery from genetic association studies in South Asians, a population with increased susceptibility to T2D.
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| 12. |
- Ning, F., et al.
(författare)
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Does abnormal insulin action or insulin secretion explain the increase in prevalence of impaired glucose metabolism with age in populations of different ethnicities?
- 2010
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Ingår i: DIABETES-METABOLISM RESEARCH AND REVIEWS. - 1520-7552. ; 26:4, s. 245-253
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Age is associated with both impaired glucose and insulin metabolism. To what extent the age-related changes in insulin resistance (IR) and β-cell function contribute to the increase in prevalence of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) is less known, and this is investigated in this study. Methods This study included 6610 men and 7664 women of different ethnic groups aged 30-69 years. IR and β-cell function were examined by the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and homeostasis model assessment of β-cell function (HOMA-B). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated using logistic regression analysis adjusting for body mass index and study. Results In Chinese men, the ORs (95% CIs) for IFG were 2.69 (1.70, 4.26), 2.51 (1.49, 4.21) and 2.89 (1.68, 4.97), respectively, in age groups of 40–49, 50–59 and 60–69 years compared with 30–39 years (p < 0.001 for trend); the corresponding figures for IGT were 1.73 (1.25, 2.38), 2.54 (1.78, 3.63) and 3.57 (2.46, 5.19) (p < 0.001 for trend). Similar trends for IGT were observed also in Chinese women and other ethnic groups, but not for IFG in Mauritius Indian and Creole men. Adjustment for HOMA-IR and HOMA-B reduced the ORs in all age groups of all ethnicities for both IFG and IGT, but the risk gradient between age groups remained particularly for the IGT. Conclusions The age-related increase in glucose intolerance may not be fully explained by the defect in HOMA-IR and HOMA-B. As HOMA-IR and HOMA-B are only surrogate measures of insulin sensitivity and insulin secretion, the results need to be further investigated
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- Tabesh, M., et al.
(författare)
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Meeting American Diabetes Association diabetes management targets : trends in Mauritius
- 2017
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Ingår i: Diabetic Medicine. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0742-3071 .- 1464-5491. ; 34:12, s. 1719-1727
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: To examine the proportion of people with diabetes in the multi-ethnic country of Mauritius meeting American Diabetes Association targets in 2009 and 2015. Methods: Data from independent population-based samples of 858 and 656 adults with diagnosed diabetes in 2009 and 2015, respectively, were analysed with regard to recommended American Diabetes Association targets for HbA(1c), blood pressure and LDL cholesterol. Results: In 2015 compared with 2009, the proportion of people achieving American Diabetes Association targets for glycaemic control in Mauritius was higher in women (P <= 0.01) and in those with only a primary education level (P=0.07), but not in men or people with a higher level of education. Achievement of blood pressure <140/90 mmHg was higher in 2015 compared with 2009 (60% vs 42%) in people of South Asian ethnicity (P<0.001), but not in those of African ethnicity (P=0.16). The percentages of people with LDL cholesterol <2.59 mmol/l were 42.1% and 50.4%, in 2009 and 2015, respectively (P= 0.27). Better control of HbA(1c) and blood pressure was observed in groups in which that control was poorest in 2009. The use of glucose-, blood pressure- and LDL cholesterol-lowering medication was higher in 2015 than in 2009. Conclusions: In certain subgroups, namely women, those with poorer education and those of South Asian ethnicity, whose target achievement was the poorest in 2009, control of glycaemia and blood pressure was better in 2015 as compared with 2009. While these findings are encouraging, further work is required to improve outcomes.
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- Wennberg, Maria, et al.
(författare)
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High consumption of pulses is associated with lower risk of abnormal glucose metabolism in women in Mauritius
- 2015
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Ingår i: Diabetic Medicine. - : Wiley. - 0742-3071 .- 1464-5491. ; 32:4, s. 513-520
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AIMS: To investigate if consumption of pulses was associated with a reduced risk of developing abnormal glucose metabolism, increases in body weight and increases in waist circumference in a multi-ethnic cohort in Mauritius.METHODS: Population-based surveys were performed in Mauritius in 1992 and in 1998. Pulse consumption was estimated from a food frequency questionnaire in 1992 and outcomes were measured in 1998. At both time points, anthropometry was undertaken and an oral glucose tolerance test was performed.RESULTS: Mauritian women with the highest consumption of pulses (highest tertile) had a reduced risk of developing abnormal glucose metabolism [odds ratio 0.52; 95% CI 0.27, 0.99) compared with those with the lowest consumption, and also after multivariable adjustments. In women, a high consumption of pulses was associated with a smaller increase in BMI.CONCLUSIONS: High consumption of pulses was associated with a reduced risk of abnormal glucose metabolism and a smaller increase in BMI in Mauritian women. Promotion of pulse consumption could be an important dietary intervention for the prevention of Type 2 diabetes and obesity in Mauritius and should be examined in other populations and in clinical trials.
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