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1.
  • Achberger, Christine, 1968, et al. (författare)
  • State of the Climate in 2011
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007. ; 93:7
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Large-scale climate patterns influenced temperature and weather patterns around the globe in 2011. In particular, a moderate-to-strong La Nina at the beginning of the year dissipated during boreal spring but reemerged during fall. The phenomenon contributed to historical droughts in East Africa, the southern United States, and northern Mexico, as well the wettest two-year period (2010-11) on record for Australia, particularly remarkable as this follows a decade-long dry period. Precipitation patterns in South America were also influenced by La Nina. Heavy rain in Rio de Janeiro in January triggered the country's worst floods and landslides in Brazil's history. The 2011 combined average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was the coolest since 2008, but was also among the 15 warmest years on record and above the 1981-2010 average. The global sea surface temperature cooled by 0.1 degrees C from 2010 to 2011, associated with cooling influences of La Nina. Global integrals of upper ocean heat content for 2011 were higher than for all prior years, demonstrating the Earth's dominant role of the oceans in the Earth's energy budget. In the upper atmosphere, tropical stratospheric temperatures were anomalously warm, while polar temperatures were anomalously cold. This led to large springtime stratospheric ozone reductions in polar latitudes in both hemispheres. Ozone concentrations in the Arctic stratosphere during March were the lowest for that period since satellite records began in 1979. An extensive, deep, and persistent ozone hole over the Antarctic in September indicates that the recovery to pre-1980 conditions is proceeding very slowly. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 2.10 ppm in 2011, and exceeded 390 ppm for the first time since instrumental records began. Other greenhouse gases also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 30% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Most ozone depleting substances continued to fall. The global net ocean carbon dioxide uptake for the 2010 transition period from El Nino to La Nina, the most recent period for which analyzed data are available, was estimated to be 1.30 Pg C yr(-1), almost 12% below the 29-year long-term average. Relative to the long-term trend, global sea level dropped noticeably in mid-2010 and reached a local minimum in 2011. The drop has been linked to the La Nina conditions that prevailed throughout much of 2010-11. Global sea level increased sharply during the second half of 2011. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2011 was well-below average, with a total of 74 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010, the North Atlantic was the only basin that experienced above-normal activity. For the first year since the widespread introduction of the Dvorak intensity-estimation method in the 1980s, only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity level-all in the Northwest Pacific basin. The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate compared with lower latitudes. Below-normal summer snowfall, a decreasing trend in surface albedo, and above-average surface and upper air temperatures resulted in a continued pattern of extreme surface melting, and net snow and ice loss on the Greenland ice sheet. Warmer-than-normal temperatures over the Eurasian Arctic in spring resulted in a new record-low June snow cover extent and spring snow cover duration in this region. In the Canadian Arctic, the mass loss from glaciers and ice caps was the greatest since GRACE measurements began in 2002, continuing a negative trend that began in 1987. New record high temperatures occurred at 20 m below the land surface at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska, where measurements began in the late 1970s. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2011 was the second-lowest on record, while the extent of old ice (four and five years) reached a new record minimum that was just 19% of normal. On the opposite pole, austral winter and spring temperatures were more than 3 degrees C above normal over much of the Antarctic continent. However, winter temperatures were below normal in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, which continued the downward trend there during the last 15 years. In summer, an all-time record high temperature of -12.3 degrees C was set at the South Pole station on 25 December, exceeding the previous record by more than a full degree. Antarctic sea ice extent anomalies increased steadily through much of the year, from briefly setting a record low in April, to well above average in December. The latter trend reflects the dispersive effects of low pressure on sea ice and the generally cool conditions around the Antarctic perimeter.
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2.
  • Justice, A. E., et al. (författare)
  • Genome-wide meta-analysis of 241,258 adults accounting for smoking behaviour identifies novel loci for obesity traits
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 8
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Few genome-wide association studies (GWAS) account for environmental exposures, like smoking, potentially impacting the overall trait variance when investigating the genetic contribution to obesity-related traits. Here, we use GWAS data from 51,080 current smokers and 190,178 nonsmokers (87% European descent) to identify loci influencing BMI and central adiposity, measured as waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio both adjusted for BMI. We identify 23 novel genetic loci, and 9 loci with convincing evidence of gene-smoking interaction (GxSMK) on obesity-related traits. We show consistent direction of effect for all identified loci and significance for 18 novel and for 5 interaction loci in an independent study sample. These loci highlight novel biological functions, including response to oxidative stress, addictive behaviour, and regulatory functions emphasizing the importance of accounting for environment in genetic analyses. Our results suggest that tobacco smoking may alter the genetic susceptibility to overall adiposity and body fat distribution.
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3.
  • Graff, M., et al. (författare)
  • Genome-wide physical activity interactions in adiposity. A meta-analysis of 200,452 adults
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: PLoS Genet. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1553-7404 .- 1553-7390. ; 13:4
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Physical activity (PA) may modify the genetic effects that give rise to increased risk of obesity. To identify adiposity loci whose effects are modified by PA, we performed genome-wide interaction meta-analyses of BMI and BMI-adjusted waist circumference and waist-hip ratio from up to 200,452 adults of European (n = 180,423) or other ancestry (n = 20,029). We standardized PA by categorizing it into a dichotomous variable where, on average, 23% of participants were categorized as inactive and 77% as physically active. While we replicate the interaction with PA for the strongest known obesity-risk locus in the FTO gene, of which the effect is attenuated by similar to 30% in physically active individuals compared to inactive individuals, we do not identify additional loci that are sensitive to PA. In additional genome-wide meta-analyses adjusting for PA and interaction with PA, we identify 11 novel adiposity loci, suggesting that accounting for PA or other environmental factors that contribute to variation in adiposity may facilitate gene discovery.
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4.
  • Abbafati, Cristiana, et al. (författare)
  • 2020
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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5.
  • Lozano, Rafael, et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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6.
  • Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (författare)
  • Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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7.
  • Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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9.
  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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11.
  • Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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12.
  • Griswold, Max G., et al. (författare)
  • Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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13.
  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare)
  • Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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14.
  • Schmit, Stephanie L, et al. (författare)
  • Novel Common Genetic Susceptibility Loci for Colorectal Cancer.
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0027-8874 .- 1460-2105. ; 111:2, s. 146-157
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 42 loci (P < 5 × 10-8) associated with risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Expanded consortium efforts facilitating the discovery of additional susceptibility loci may capture unexplained familial risk.Methods: We conducted a GWAS in European descent CRC cases and control subjects using a discovery-replication design, followed by examination of novel findings in a multiethnic sample (cumulative n = 163 315). In the discovery stage (36 948 case subjects/30 864 control subjects), we identified genetic variants with a minor allele frequency of 1% or greater associated with risk of CRC using logistic regression followed by a fixed-effects inverse variance weighted meta-analysis. All novel independent variants reaching genome-wide statistical significance (two-sided P < 5 × 10-8) were tested for replication in separate European ancestry samples (12 952 case subjects/48 383 control subjects). Next, we examined the generalizability of discovered variants in East Asians, African Americans, and Hispanics (12 085 case subjects/22 083 control subjects). Finally, we examined the contributions of novel risk variants to familial relative risk and examined the prediction capabilities of a polygenic risk score. All statistical tests were two-sided.Results: The discovery GWAS identified 11 variants associated with CRC at P < 5 × 10-8, of which nine (at 4q22.2/5p15.33/5p13.1/6p21.31/6p12.1/10q11.23/12q24.21/16q24.1/20q13.13) independently replicated at a P value of less than .05. Multiethnic follow-up supported the generalizability of discovery findings. These results demonstrated a 14.7% increase in familial relative risk explained by common risk alleles from 10.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.9% to 13.7%; known variants) to 11.9% (95% CI = 9.2% to 15.5%; known and novel variants). A polygenic risk score identified 4.3% of the population at an odds ratio for developing CRC of at least 2.0.Conclusions: This study provides insight into the architecture of common genetic variation contributing to CRC etiology and improves risk prediction for individualized screening.
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15.
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16.
  • Kitchen, Philip, et al. (författare)
  • Targeting Aquaporin-4 Subcellular Localization to Treat Central Nervous System Edema
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Cell. - : Elsevier BV. - 0092-8674. ; 181:4, s. 19-799
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Swelling of the brain or spinal cord (CNS edema) affects millions of people every year. All potential pharmacological interventions have failed in clinical trials, meaning that symptom management is the only treatment option. The water channel protein aquaporin-4 (AQP4) is expressed in astrocytes and mediates water flux across the blood-brain and blood-spinal cord barriers. Here we show that AQP4 cell-surface abundance increases in response to hypoxia-induced cell swelling in a calmodulin-dependent manner. Calmodulin directly binds the AQP4 carboxyl terminus, causing a specific conformational change and driving AQP4 cell-surface localization. Inhibition of calmodulin in a rat spinal cord injury model with the licensed drug trifluoperazine inhibited AQP4 localization to the blood-spinal cord barrier, ablated CNS edema, and led to accelerated functional recovery compared with untreated animals. We propose that targeting the mechanism of calmodulin-mediated cell-surface localization of AQP4 is a viable strategy for development of CNS edema therapies.
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17.
  • Akhtar, Zubair, et al. (författare)
  • Optimal timing of influenza vaccination among patients with acute myocardial infarction - Findings from the IAMI trial
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Vaccine. - : Elsevier. - 0264-410X .- 1873-2518. ; 41:48, s. 7159-7165
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Influenza vaccination reduces the risk of adverse cardiovascular events. The IAMI trial randomly assigned 2571 patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) to receive influenza vaccine or saline placebo during their index hospital admission. It was conducted at 30 centers in 8 countries from October 1, 2016 to March 1, 2020. In this post-hoc exploratory sub-study, we compare the trial outcomes in patients receiving early season vaccination (n = 1188) and late season vaccination (n = 1344). The primary endpoint was the composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction (MI), or stent thrombosis at 12 months. The cumulative incidence of the primary and key secondary endpoints by randomized treatment and early or late vaccination was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. In the early vaccinated group, the primary composite endpoint occurred in 36 participants (6.0%) assigned to influenza vaccine and 49 (8.4%) assigned to placebo (HR 0.69; 95% CI 0.45 to 1.07), compared to 31 participants (4.7%) assigned to influenza vaccine and 42 (6.2%) assigned to placebo (HR 0.74; 95% CI 0.47 to 1.18) in the late vaccinated group (P = 0.848 for interaction on HR scale at 1 year). We observed similar estimates for the key secondary endpoints of all-cause death and CV death. There was no statistically significant difference in vaccine effectiveness against adverse cardiovascular events by timing of vaccination. The effect of vaccination on all-cause death at one year was more pronounced in the group receiving early vaccination (HR 0.50; 95% CI, 0.29 to 0.86) compared late vaccination group (HR 0.75; 35% CI, 0.40 to 1.40) but there was no statistically significant difference between these groups (Interaction P = 0.335). In conclusion, there is insufficient evidence from the trial to establish whether there is a difference in efficacy between early and late vaccination but regardless of vaccination timing we strongly recommend influenza vaccination in all patients with cardiovascular diseases.
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18.
  • Ali, Raja Hashim, et al. (författare)
  • VMCMC: a graphical and statistical analysis tool for Markov chain Monte Carlo traces
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Bmc Bioinformatics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1471-2105. ; 18
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: MCMC-based methods are important for Bayesian inference of phylogeny and related parameters. Although being computationally expensive, MCMC yields estimates of posterior distributions that are useful for estimating parameter values and are easy to use in subsequent analysis. There are, however, sometimes practical difficulties with MCMC, relating to convergence assessment and determining burn-in, especially in large-scale analyses. Currently, multiple software are required to perform, e.g., convergence, mixing and interactive exploration of both continuous and tree parameters. Results: We have written a software called VMCMC to simplify post-processing of MCMC traces with, for example, automatic burn-in estimation. VMCMC can also be used both as a GUI-based application, supporting interactive exploration, and as a command-line tool suitable for automated pipelines. Conclusions: VMCMC is a free software available under the New BSD License. Executable jar files, tutorial manual and source code can be downloaded from https://bitbucket. org/rhali/visualmcmc/.
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19.
  • Fröbert, Ole, 1964-, et al. (författare)
  • Clinical Impact of Influenza Vaccination after ST- and Non-ST-segment elevation Myocardial Infarction Insights from the IAMI trial
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: American Heart Journal. - : Elsevier. - 0002-8703 .- 1097-6744. ; 255, s. 82-89
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Influenza vaccination early after myocardial infarction (MI) improves prognosis but vaccine effectiveness may differ dependent on type of MI.METHODS: A total of 2571 participants were prospectively enrolled in the IAMI trial and randomly assigned to receive in-hospital inactivated influenza vaccine or saline placebo. The trial was conducted at 30 centers in 8 countries from October 1, 2016 to March 1, 2020. Here we report vaccine effectiveness in the 2467 participants with ST-segment elevation MI (STEMI, n=1348) or non-ST-segment elevation MI (NSTEMI, n=1119). The primary endpoint was the composite of all-cause death, MI, or stent thrombosis at 12 months. Cumulative incidence of the primary and key secondary endpoints by randomized treatment and NSTEMI/STEMI was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Treatment effects were evaluated with formal interaction testing to assess for effect modification.RESULTS: Baseline risk was higher in participants with NSTEMI. In the NSTEMI group the primary endpoint occurred in 6.5% of participants assigned to influenza vaccine and 10.5% assigned to placebo (hazard ratio [HR], 0.60; 95% CI, 0.39-0.91), compared to 4.1% assigned to influenza vaccine and 4.5% assigned to placebo in the STEMI group (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.54-1.50, P=0.237 for interaction). Similar findings were seen for the key secondary endpoints of all-cause death and cardiovascular death. The Kaplan-Meier risk difference in all-cause death at 1 year was more pronounced in participants with NSTEMI (NSTEMI: HR, 0.47; 95% CI 0.28-0.80, STEMI: HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.43-1.70, interaction P=0.028).CONCLUSIONS: The beneficial effect of influenza vaccination on adverse cardiovascular events may be enhanced in patients with NSTEMI compared to those with STEMI.
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20.
  • Fröbert, Ole, 1964-, et al. (författare)
  • Influenza Vaccination after Myocardial Infarction : A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Multicenter Trial
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Circulation. - : Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 144:18, s. 1476-1484
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Observational and small randomized studies suggest that influenza vaccine may reduce future cardiovascular events in patients with cardiovascular disease.Methods: We conducted an investigator-initiated, randomized, double-blind trial to compare inactivated influenza vaccine with saline placebo administered shortly after myocardial infarction (MI) (99.7% of patients) or high-risk stable coronary heart disease (0.3%). The primary endpoint was the composite of all-cause death, MI, or stent thrombosis at 12 months. A hierarchical testing strategy was used for the key secondary endpoints: all-cause death, cardiovascular death, MI, and stent thrombosis.Results: Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the data safety and monitoring board decided to halt the trial before attaining the prespecified sample size. Between October 1, 2016, and March 1, 2020, 2571 participants were randomized at 30 centers across eight countries; 1290 assigned to influenza vaccine and 1281 to placebo. Over the 12-month follow-up, the primary outcome occurred in 67 participants (5.3%) assigned influenza vaccine and 91 participants (7.2%) assigned placebo (hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.52 to 0.99; P=0.040). Rates of all-cause death were 2.9% and 4.9% (hazard ratio, 0.59; 0.39 to 0.89; P=0.010), of cardiovascular death 2.7% and 4.5%, (hazard ratio, 0.59; 0.39 to 0.90; P=0.014), and of MI 2.0% and 2.4% (hazard ratio, 0.86; 0.50 to 1.46, P=0.57) in the influenza vaccine and placebo groups, respectively. Conclusions: Influenza vaccination early after an MI or in high-risk coronary heart disease resulted in a lower risk of a composite of all-cause death, MI, or stent thrombosis, as well as a lower risk of all-cause death and cardiovascular death at 12 months compared with placebo.Clinical Trial Registration: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov Unique identifier: NCT02831608.
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21.
  • Gorasso, Vanessa, et al. (författare)
  • Burden of disease attributable to risk factors in European countries: a scoping literature review
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Archives of Public Health. - 0778-7367 .- 2049-3258. ; 81:1
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objectives: Within the framework of the burden of disease (BoD) approach, disease and injury burden estimates attributable to risk factors are a useful guide for policy formulation and priority setting in disease prevention. Considering the important differences in methods, and their impact on burden estimates, we conducted a scoping literature review to: (1) map the BoD assessments including risk factors performed across Europe; and (2) identify the methodological choices in comparative risk assessment (CRA) and risk assessment methods. Methods: We searched multiple literature databases, including grey literature websites and targeted public health agencies websites. Results: A total of 113 studies were included in the synthesis and further divided into independent BoD assessments (54 studies) and studies linked to the Global Burden of Disease (59 papers). Our results showed that the methods used to perform CRA varied substantially across independent European BoD studies. While there were some methodological choices that were more common than others, we did not observe patterns in terms of country, year or risk factor. Each methodological choice can affect the comparability of estimates between and within countries and/or risk factors, since they might significantly influence the quantification of the attributable burden. From our analysis we observed that the use of CRA was less common for some types of risk factors and outcomes. These included environmental and occupational risk factors, which are more likely to use bottom-up approaches for health outcomes where disease envelopes may not be available. Conclusions: Our review also highlighted misreporting, the lack of uncertainty analysis and the under-investigation of causal relationships in BoD studies. Development and use of guidelines for performing and reporting BoD studies will help understand differences, avoid misinterpretations thus improving comparability among estimates.
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22.
  • Jlassi, Khouloud, et al. (författare)
  • Highly sensitive humidity sensor based on cadmium selenide quantum dots-polymer composites : synthesis, characterization, and effect of UV/ozone treatment
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Journal of Materials Science: Materials in Electronics. - 0957-4522. ; 34:21
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This work describes the rational design of thin film-based cadmium selenide quantum dots (CdSe) mixed with conductive polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF), inducing PVDF-CdSe composite for potential resistive humidity-sensing applications. The effect of UV/ozone treatment on surface hydrophilicity and sensing properties was investigated. AFM has been performed to examine the prepared films' texture, distribution over the surface, and size. Overall, the hydrophilicity of the developed films increases with UV radiation exposure time, leading to enhanced water vapor absorption without deforming the film surface. The sensor's sensitivity is improved with increasing UV radiation exposure. The electrical response of the PVDF-CdSe humidity sensors after 30 min of UV/ozone treatment reveals that at higher humidity levels (i.e., > 80% RH), the sensors exhibit an irregular response. However, at 20 min, treatment increases sensitivity and a linear change in impedance response concerning humidity level change compared to other samples. The hysteresis response was divided into two regions: the lower region, between 30 and 60% RH—where the maximum hysteresis loss was calculated to be 3%. While the higher area between 60 and 90% RH, where the maximum estimated hysteresis loss of the PVDF-CdSe sensor is around 14%, the UV/ozone treatment of the PVDF-CdSe nanocomposite film was found to enhance the sensing film's hydrophilicity without deforming the surface of the as-prepared PVDF-CdSe as well as the UV-treated films validates a potential for novel humidity sensors.
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23.
  • Qejvanaj, Fatjon, et al. (författare)
  • Thick Double-Biased IrMn/NiFe/IrMn Planar Hall Effect Bridge Sensors
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: IEEE transactions on magnetics. - 0018-9464 .- 1941-0069. ; 50:11
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In this paper, we present a new material stack for planar Hall effect bridge (PHEB) sensors and a detailed investigation of the sensitivity and noise properties of PHEB sensors made from these. The sputter deposited material stack was based on a ferromagnetic (FM) NiFe sensing layer surrounded by two layers of anti-FM IrMn. This material stack enables implementation of a thick NiFe layer without loss of sensitivity. We present an improvement in detectivity in the PHEB by changing the shape and the materials of the corners between the sensors in a meander shape. A significant reduction of noise also comes from the thick NiFe layer, due to the reduced resistance of the sensor.
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24.
  • Vigliar, Elena, et al. (författare)
  • COVID-19 pandemic impact on cytopathology practice in the post-lockdown period: An international, multicenter study
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Cancer Cytopathology. - : WILEY. - 1934-662X .- 1934-6638. ; 130:5, s. 344-351
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background In a previous worldwide survey, the authors showed a drastic reduction in the number of cytological specimens processed during the coronavirus disease 2019 "lockdown" period along with an increase in malignancy rates. To assess the continued impact of the pandemic on cytological practices around the world, they undertook a second follow-up worldwide survey collecting data from the post-lockdown period (2020). Methods Participants were asked to provide data regarding their cytopathology activity during the first 12 weeks of their respective national post-lockdown period (2020), which ranged from April 4 to October 31. Differences between the post-lockdown period and the corresponding 2019 period were evaluated, and the authors specifically focused on rates of malignant diagnoses. Results A total of 29 respondents from 17 countries worldwide joined the survey. Overall, a lower number of cytological specimens (n = 236,352) were processed in comparison with the same period in 2019 (n = 321,466) for a relative reduction of 26.5%. The overall malignancy rate showed a statistically significant increase (12,442 [5.26%] vs 12,882 [4.01%]; P < .001) during the same time period. Similar results were obtained if both malignancy and suspicious for malignancy rates were considered together (15,759 [6.58%] vs 16,011 [4.98%]; P < .001). Conclusions The data showed a persistent reduction in the cytological specimen volume during the post-lockdown period (2020). However, the relative increase in the cytological workload in the late part of the post-lockdown is a promising finding of a slow return to normality.
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25.
  • Akhtar, Zubair, et al. (författare)
  • In-hospital and 30-day major adverse cardiac events in patients referred for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in Dhaka, Bangladesh
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: BMC Cardiovascular Disorders. - : BioMed Central. - 1471-2261 .- 1471-2261. ; 21:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of data regarding acute phase (in-hospital and 30-day) major adverse cardiac events (MACE) following ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in Bangladesh. This study aimed to document MACE during the acute phase post-STEMI to provide information.METHODS: We enrolled STEMI patients of the National Institute of Cardiovascular Disease, Dhaka, Bangladesh, from August 2017 to October 2018 and followed up through 30 days post-discharge for MACE, defined as the composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction, and coronary revascularization. Demographic information, cardiovascular risk factors, and clinical data were registered in a case report form. The Cox proportional hazard model was used for univariate and multivariate analysis to identify potential risk factors for MACE.RESULTS: A total of 601 patients, mean age 51.6 ± 10.3 years, 93% male, were enrolled. The mean duration of hospital stay was 3.8 ± 2.4 days. We found 37 patients (6.2%) to experience an in-hospital event, and 45 (7.5%) events occurred within the 30 days post-discharge. In univariate analysis, a significantly increased risk of developing 30-day MACE was observed in patients with more than 12 years of formal education, diabetes mellitus, or a previous diagnosis of heart failure. In a multivariate analysis, the risk of developing 30-day MACE was increased in patients with heart failure (hazard ratio = 4.65; 95% CI 1.64-13.23).CONCLUSIONS: A high risk of in-hospital and 30-day MACE in patients with STEMI exists in Bangladesh. Additional resources should be allocated providing guideline-recommended treatment for patients with myocardial infarction in Bangladesh.
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26.
  • Akhtar, Zubair, et al. (författare)
  • Undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection and outcome in patients with acute MI and no COVID-19 symptoms
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Open heart. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2053-3624. ; 8:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine the prevalence and outcome of occult infection with SARS-CoV-2 and influenza in patients presenting with myocardial infarction (MI) without COVID-19 symptoms.METHODS: We conducted an observational study from 28 June to 11 August 2020, enrolling patients admitted to the National Institute of Cardiovascular Disease Hospital, Dhaka, Bangladesh, with ST-segment elevation MI (STEMI) or non-ST-segment elevation MI who did not meet WHO criteria for suspected COVID-19. Samples were collected by nasopharyngeal swab to test for SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus by real-time reverse transcriptase PCR. We followed up patients at 3 months (13 weeks) postadmission to record adverse cardiovascular outcomes: all-cause death, new MI, heart failure and new percutaneous coronary intervention or stent thrombosis. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method.RESULTS: We enrolled 280 patients with MI, 79% male, mean age 54.5±11.8 years, 140 of whom were diagnosed with STEMI. We found 36 (13%) to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 and 1 with influenza. There was no significant difference between mortality rate observed among SARS-CoV-2 infected patients compared with non-infected (5 (14%) vs 26 (11%); p=0.564). A numerically shorter median time to a recurrent cardiovascular event was recorded among SARS-CoV-2 infected compared with non-infected patients (21 days, IQR: 8-46 vs 27 days, IQR: 7-44; p=0.378).CONCLUSION: We found a substantial rate of occult SARS-CoV-2 infection in the studied cohort, suggesting SARS-CoV-2 may precipitate MI. Asymptomatic patients with COVID-19 admitted with MI may contribute to disease transmission and warrants widespread testing of hospital admissions.
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27.
  • Crisci, Giulia, et al. (författare)
  • Biomarkers in Acute Myocarditis and Chronic Inflammatory Cardiomyopathy: An Updated Review of the Literature.
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Journal of clinical medicine. - 2077-0383. ; 12:23
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Myocarditis is a disease caused by cardiac inflammation that can progress to dilated cardiomyopathy, heart failure, and eventually death. Several etiologies, including autoimmune, drug-induced, and infectious, lead to inflammation, which causes damage to the myocardium, followed by remodeling and fibrosis. Although there has been an increasing understanding of pathophysiology, early and accurate diagnosis, and effective treatment remain challenging due to the high heterogeneity. As a result, many patients have poor prognosis, with those surviving at risk of long-term sequelae. Current diagnostic methods, including imaging and endomyocardial biopsy, are, at times, expensive, invasive, and not always performed early enough to affect disease progression. Therefore, the identification of accurate, cost-effective, and prognostically informative biomarkers is critical for screening and treatment. The review then focuses on the biomarkers currently associated with these conditions, which have been extensively studied via blood tests and imaging techniques. The information within this review was retrieved through extensive literature research conducted on major publicly accessible databases and has been collated and revised by an international panel of experts. The biomarkers discussed in the article have shown great promise in clinical research studies and provide clinicians with essential tools for early diagnosis and improved outcomes.
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28.
  • De Luca, Mariarosaria, et al. (författare)
  • Endothelial Dysfunction and Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction-An Updated Review of the Literature.
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Life (Basel, Switzerland). - 2075-1729. ; 14:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Heart failure (HF) is a clinical syndrome consisting of typical symptoms and signs due to structural and/or functional abnormalities of the heart, resulting in elevated intracardiac pressures and/or inadequate cardiac output. The vascular system plays a crucial role in the development and progression of HF regardless of ejection fraction, with endothelial dysfunction (ED) as one of the principal features of HF. The main ED manifestations (i.e., impaired endothelium-dependent vasodilation, increased oxidative stress, chronic inflammation, leukocyte adhesion, and endothelial cell senescence) affect the systemic and pulmonary haemodynamic and the renal and coronary circulation. The present review is aimed to discuss the contribution of ED to HF pathophysiology-in particular, HF with preserved ejection fraction-ED role in HF patients, and the possible effects of pharmacological and non-pharmacological approaches. For this purpose, relevant data from a literature search (PubMed, Scopus, EMBASE, and Medline) were reviewed. As a result, ED, assessed via venous occlusion plethysmography or flow-mediated dilation, was shown to be independently associated with poor outcomes in HF patients (e.g., mortality, cardiovascular events, and hospitalization due to worsening HF). In addition, SGLT2 inhibitors, endothelin antagonists, endothelial nitric oxide synthase cofactors, antioxidants, and exercise training were shown to positively modulate ED in HF. Despite the need for future research to better clarify the role of the vascular endothelium in HF, ED represents an interesting and promising potential therapeutic target.
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29.
  • Lukyamuzi, Zubair, et al. (författare)
  • Community health workers improve HIV disclosure among HIV-affected sexual partners in rural Uganda : a quasi-experimental study
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Global Health. - : Johns Hopkins School Bloomberg School of Public Health, Center for Communication Programs. - 2169-575X. ; 10:5
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: We evaluated the efficacy of a community health worker (CHW)–led intervention in supporting disclosure among adults living with HIV in heterosexual relationships.Methods: We conducted a quasi-experimental study with 2 arms allocated by geographically determined clusters and adjusted for between-group differences among adults living with HIV in the greater Luwero region of Uganda who had never disclosed their status to their current primary sexual partners. Clusters were allocated to either a CHW-led intervention or a control arm. In both arms, participants were consecutively recruited. As opposed to receiving routine care for the control arm, participants in the intervention arm received additional CHW disclosure support. The overall follow-up was 6 months, and the primary outcome was disclosure to the sexual partner. Data were analyzed using a clustered modified Poisson regression model with robust standard errors to determine independent factors associated with disclosure.Results: Of the 245 participants who enrolled, 230 (93.9%) completed the study, and 112 (48.7%) of those were in the intervention arm. The median age was 30 (interquartile range=25–37) years, the majority were women (76.5%), and most (80%) did not know their partners’ HIV status at study entry. At the end of follow-up, the overall disclosure prevalence was 74.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]=68.2, 79.9) and participants in the intervention arm were 51% more likely to disclose compared to those in the control (adjusted relative ratio [aRR]=1.51; 95% CI=1.28, 1.77). Men were 24% (aRR=1.24; 95% CI=1.07, 1.44) more likely to disclose compared to women, and membership in an HIV/AIDS association increased disclosure by 18% (aRR=1.18; 95% CI=1.01, 1.39).Conclusion: CHW support improved disclosure among adults living with HIV in heterosexual relationships when compared to routine care. Therefore, CHW-led mechanisms may be utilized in increasing disclosure among adults living with HIV in heterosexual relationships in rural settings.
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30.
  • Mehran, Muhammad Taqi, et al. (författare)
  • A comprehensive review on durability improvement of solid oxide fuel cells for commercial stationary power generation systems
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Applied Energy. - 1872-9118 .- 0306-2619. ; 352
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) are recognized as an alternative for power generation applications due to their high efficiency and environment-friendly behaviour. The electronic devices and power age could be revolutionized with the commercialization of such devices. Stationary power generation systems based on SOFCs are a step closer to commercialization due to the latest developments in the technology that promises to overcome the inherent bottleneck of high-temperature fuel cells, i.e., durability. According to the US Department of Energy (DOE), the stationary power generation system should have a lifetime of 40,000 h continuous operation. The efficiency of SOFCs is mainly dependent on their components such as anode, cathode, interconnect, and electrolyte. There are numerous factors affecting the efficiency of SOFCs that include the composition of the fuel, kinetics, and thermodynamics of the cell, and working temperature. In this paper, we have presented a comprehensive review of the recent developments to produce durable SOFCs for commercial stationary power generation systems. The review summarizes several prominent degradation mechanisms involved in the SOFC components and methods to reduce the degradation process. In addition, the methods and techniques adopted for the degradation analysis are fully demonstrated, followed by a detailed durability diagnostic through in-situ and ex-situ durability testing. The review is complemented by a lucid presentation of future research challenges and the knowledge gaps coupled with potential recommendations to fill the gaps. The new engineering designs, the material development and the new knowledge presented in this study could provide useful guidance for the key stakeholders, policymakers and power generation entities to commercially implement the application of durable SOFCs for stationary power generation.
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31.
  • Muzaffar, Nimra, et al. (författare)
  • Designing of VCuS@MXene nanocomposite electrode for energy storage device and electrochemical glucose sensor
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Journal of materials science. Materials in electronics. - : Springer Nature. - 0957-4522 .- 1573-482X. ; 35:9
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • MXene, a two-dimensional (2D) material composed of transition metal carbides (TMCs) and nitrides, have fascinated substantial scientific interest. This increased interest results from their exceptional properties, which include extraordinary conductivity, transparency, outstanding absorbing capacity, and significant charge storage capacities. In this work, the MXene-doped vanadium copper sulfide (VCuS) was synthesized through the hydrothermal method. In three electrode measurement system, the VCuS/MXene composite electrode showed exhibited a specific capacity (Qs) of 1620 Cg−1. As application point of view, the hybrid device is designed and measured the electrochemical properties. The hybrid device showed the remarkable Qs of 1528 C.g−1, power density (Pd) of 2347 Wkg−1 and an energy density (Ed) of 34.99 Whkg−1. Further, the VCuS/MXene//AC device is measured up to 6000 cycles to check the stability and durability. The device showed the capacity retention (CR) of 88.5% and a high Coulombic efficiency of 82.6%. Additionally, the VCuS/MXene electrode material is utilized as an electrochemical glucose sensor for the precise detection of H2O2 down to a minimal concentration of H2O2/mm, exhibiting exceptional precision. The use of multifunctional VCuS/MXene nanocomposite electrode material presents novel possibilities for the construction of hybrid energy harvesting systems.
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32.
  • Reitsma, Marissa B., et al. (författare)
  • Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 389:10082, s. 1885-1906
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.2-25.7) for men and 5.4% (5.1-5.7) for women, representing 28.4% (25.8-31.1) and 34.4% (29.4-38.6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11.5% of global deaths (6.4 million [95% UI 5.7-7.0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52.2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.
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33.
  • Szalontai, Laszlo, et al. (författare)
  • Laterality of deep white matter hyperintensities correlates with basilar artery bending and vertebral artery dominance
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Croatian Medical Journal. - : Zagreb University School of Medicine. - 0353-9504 .- 1332-8166. ; 62:4, s. 360-366
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Aim: To investigate whether vertebrobasilar geometry contributes to the presence, severity, and laterality of white matter hyperintensities (WMH).Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 290 cerebral scans of patients who underwent time-of-flight and fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) between 2017 and 2018. WMH were counted, localized, and grouped according to laterality on the FLAIR sequence. A 3D mesh of the posterior circulation was reconstructed (with ITK SNAP software) and the morphology of the vertebrobasilar system analyzed with an in-house software written in Python.Results: Patients were assigned into a group with WMH (n = 204) and a group without WMH (n = 86). The severity of WMH burden was mainly affected by age and hypertension, while the localization of the WMH (or laterality) was mainly affected by the vertebrobasilar system morphology. Basilar artery morphology only affected the parietooccipital region significantly if both posterior communicating arteries were hypoplastic or absent. The dominant vertebral artery and basilar artery curve had an opposite directional relationship.Conclusions: An unequal vertebral artery flow is an important hemodynamic contributor to basilar bending. Increased basilar artery curvature and increased infratentorial WMH burden may signal inadequate blood flow and predict cerebrovascular events.
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34.
  • Zubair, Muhammad, et al. (författare)
  • Promotion of wound healing by Plantago major L. leaf extracts : Ex-vivo experiments confirm experiences from traditional medicine
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Natural Product Research. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1478-6419 .- 1478-6427. ; 30:5, s. 622-624
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The wound-healing properties of Plantago major L. (plantain) were evaluated using an ex-vivo porcine wound-healing model. Ethanol- and water-based extracts were prepared from greenhouse-grown and freeze-dried leaves of P. major. Both types of extracts stimulated wound healing in porcine skin, but the ethanol-based extracts had a somewhat stronger effect. A concentration of 1.0 mg/mL (on dry weight basis) produced the best results for both types of extracts.
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