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- Giesecke, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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Towards an understanding of the Holocene distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.
- 2007
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Ingår i: Journal of Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1365-2699 .- 0305-0270. ; 34:1, s. 118-131
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim Understanding the driving forces and mechanisms of changes in past plant distribution and abundance will help assess the biological consequences of future climate change scenarios. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether modelled patterns of climate parameters 6000 years ago can account for the European distribution of Fagus sylvatica at that time. Consideration is also given to the role of non-climatic parameters as driving forces of the Holocene spread and population expansion of F. sylvatica. Location Europe. Methods European distributions were simulated using a physiologically-based bioclimatic model (STASH) driven by three different atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) outputs for 6000 years ago. Results The three simulations generally showed F. sylvatica to have potentially been as widespread 6000 years ago as it is today, which gives a profound mismatch with pollen-based reconstructions of the F. sylvatica distribution at that time. The results indicate that drier conditions during the growing season 6000 years ago could have caused a restriction of the range in the south. Poorer growth conditions with consequently reduced competitive ability were modelled for large parts of France. Main conclusions Consideration of the entire European range of F. sylvatica showed that no single driving force could account for the observed distributional limits 6000 years ago, or the pattern of spread during the Holocene. Climatic factors, particularly drought during the growing season, are the likely major determinants of the potential range. Climatic factors are regionally moderated by competition, disturbance effects and the intrinsically slow rate of population increase of F. sylvatica. Dynamic vegetation modelling is needed to account for potentially important competitive interactions and their relationship with changing climate. We identify uncertainties in the climate and pollen data, as well as the bioclimatic model, which suggest that the current study does not identify whether or not climate determined the distribution of F. sylvatica 6000 years ago. Pollen data are better suited for comparison with relative abundance gradients rather than absolute distributional limits. These uncertainties from a study of the past, where we have information about plant distribution and abundance, argue for extreme caution in making forecasts for the future using equilibrium models.
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- Miller, Paul, et al.
(författare)
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Exploring climatic and biotic controls on Holocene vegetation change in Fennoscandia
- 2008
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Ingår i: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley. - 1365-2745 .- 0022-0477. ; 96:2, s. 247-259
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- # 1. We investigated the potential drivers of Holocene vegetation changes recorded at four Scandinavian pollen sites, two in Sweden and two in Finland, at a time when they were largely free of anthropogenic influence. # 2. We used the generalized dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS forced with climate anomaly output from an atmospheric general circulation model to simulate tree species dynamics from 10 000 years ago to the present. The model results were compared to high-resolution pollen accumulation rates gathered at the sites. # 3. Our results indicate that both the observed northern distributional limits of temperate trees, and the limits of Pinus sylvestris and Alnus incana at the tree line, are a result of millennial variations in summer and winter temperatures. The simulation of several distinct trends in species occurrence observed in the pollen record indicates that a time lag due to the slow spreading of species need not be invoked for most species. # 4. Sensitivity studies indicate that competition, natural disturbance and the magnitude of interannual variability play key roles in determining the biomass, establishment and even the presence of species near their bioclimatic limits. However, neither disturbance due to fire nor limits on establishment due to drought were likely to have been major determinants of the observed trends on the timescales considered. # 5. We were unable to limit the modelled occurrence of Picea abies at the study sites to the periods at which it was observed in the pollen records, indicating that we have still not completely understood the driving or limiting factors for Holocene changes in Picea abies abundance. # 6. Synthesis. This study shows that by combining quantitative vegetation reconstructions with a modern, process-based dynamic vegetation model, we may gain new insights into the potential biotic and abiotic drivers of Holocene vegetation dynamics, and their relative importance. This knowledge will be crucial in enabling us to assess more confidently the response of northern European vegetation to future climate change.
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- Ainsworth, Elizabeth A., et al.
(författare)
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Next generation of elevated [CO2] experiments with crops: a critical investment for feeding the future world
- 2008
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Ingår i: Plant, Cell and Environment. - : Wiley. - 0140-7791 .- 1365-3040. ; 31:9, s. 1317-1324
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A rising global population and demand for protein-rich diets are increasing pressure to maximize agricultural productivity. Rising atmospheric [CO2] is altering global temperature and precipitation patterns, which challenges agricultural productivity. While rising [CO2] provides a unique opportunity to increase the productivity of C-3 crops, average yield stimulation observed to date is well below potential gains. Thus, there is room for improving productivity. However, only a fraction of available germplasm of crops has been tested for CO2 responsiveness. Yield is a complex phenotypic trait determined by the interactions of a genotype with the environment. Selection of promising genotypes and characterization of response mechanisms will only be effective if crop improvement and systems biology approaches are closely linked to production environments, that is, on the farm within major growing regions. Free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments can provide the platform upon which to conduct genetic screening and elucidate the inheritance and mechanisms that underlie genotypic differences in productivity under elevated [CO2]. We propose a new generation of large-scale, low-cost per unit area FACE experiments to identify the most CO2-responsive genotypes and provide starting lines for future breeding programmes. This is necessary if we are to realize the potential for yield gains in the future.
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- Arneth, Almut, et al.
(författare)
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CO2 inhibition of terrestrial isoprene production stabilises tropospheric oxidation capacity
- 2007
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 1944-8007. ; 34, L18813:18
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- [1] Isoprene is the dominant volatile organic compound produced by the terrestrial biosphere and fundamental for atmospheric composition and climate. It constrains the concentration of tropospheric oxidants, affecting the lifetime of other reduced species such as methane and contributing to ozone production. Oxidation products of isoprene contribute to aerosol growth. Recent consensus holds that emissions were low during glacial periods ( helping to explain low methane concentrations), while high emissions ( contributing to high ozone concentrations) can be expected in a greenhouse world, due to positive relationships with temperature and terrestrial productivity. However, this response is offset when the recently demonstrated inhibition of leaf isoprene emissions by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration is accounted for in a process-based model. Thus, isoprene may play a small role in determining pre-industrial tropospheric OH concentration and glacial-interglacial methane trends, while predictions of high future tropospheric O-3 concentrations partly driven by isoprene emissions may need to be revised.
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