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- Rauhut, Daniel, 1968-, et al.
(författare)
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Replacement migration – Implications for the sender countries
- 2006
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Ingår i: Ageing Horizons. - : The Oxford Institute of Population Ageing. - 1746-1073. ; :4, s. 19-26
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Much of the debate regarding ‘replacement migration’ hastaken it for granted that if Europe opens up its bordersthe migrants will show up. To master the populationdecline 1 840 million net immigrants are needed duringthe period 2000 to 2050 (UNPD, 2000)! This figure is sohigh that it is not realistic to think that immigration couldbe a sufficient solution to the region’s demographic challenges.A second problem is that unless we do a merehead count calculation lots of labour will probably showup, but is it the labour with the needed skills and competence?Case studies indicate that this may not be the case(e.g. Rauhut, 2004).Although the effects of migration on potential hostcountries in the western world have been much analysedand debated, relatively little attention has been directedat the implications for the sender countries of suchlarge scale migration. The aim of this paper is toconsider the effects of out-migration on the countrieswhich are helping – or might in future help – to meetthe demand for labour in richer countries. The followingquestions will be discussed: (1) From whichcountries will the migrants come? – and will themigrants come anyway? (2) What will the migrationflows look like? (3) What are the demographic profilesof these countries? (4) Will this out-migration exacerbateexisting problems of demographic ageing in thesecountries?
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