| 11. |
- Bryngelsson, David, 1981, et al.
(author)
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How can the EU climate targets be met? : A combined analysis of technological and demand-side changes in food and agriculture
- 2016
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In: Food Policy. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 0306-9192 .- 1873-5657. ; 59, s. 152-164
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- To meet the 2 °C climate target, deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be required for carbon dioxide from fossil fuels but, most likely, also for methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture and other sources. However, relatively little is known about the GHG mitigation potential in agriculture, in particular with respect to the combined effects of technological advancements and dietary changes. Here, we estimate the extent to which changes in technology and demand can reduce Swedish food-related GHG emissions necessary for meeting EU climate targets. This analysis is based on a detailed representation of the food and agriculture system, using 30 different food items. We find that food-related methane and nitrous oxide emissions can be reduced enough to meet the EU 2050 climate targets. Technologically, agriculture can improve in productivity and through implementation of specific mitigation measures. Under optimistic assumptions, these developments could cut current food-related methane and nitrous oxide emissions by nearly 50%. However, also dietary changes will almost certainly be necessary. Large reductions, by 50% or more, in ruminant meat (beef and mutton) consumption are, most likely, unavoidable if the EU targets are to be met. In contrast, continued high per-capita consumption of pork and poultry meat or dairy products might be accommodated within the climate targets. High dairy consumption, however, is only compatible with the targets if there are substantial advances in technology. Reducing food waste plays a minor role for meeting the climate targets, lowering emissions only by an additional 1–3%. © 2016 The Authors
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| 12. |
- Bryngelsson, David, 1981, et al.
(author)
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How Do Dietary Choices Influence the Energy-System Cost of Stabilizing the Climate?
- 2017
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In: Energies. - : MDPI AG. - 1996-1073 .- 1996-1073. ; 10:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We investigate how different global dietary scenarios affect the constraints on, and costs of, transforming the energy system to reach a global temperature stabilization limit of 2 degrees C above the pre-industrial level. A global food and agriculture model, World Food Supply Model (WOFSUM), is used to create three dietary scenarios and to calculate the CH4 and N2O emissions resulting from their respective food-supply chains. The diets are: (i) a reference diet based on current trends; (ii) a diet with high (reference-level) meat consumption, but without ruminant products (i.e., no beef, lamb, or dairy, only pork and poultry); and (iii) a vegan diet. The estimated CH4 and N2O emissions from food production are fed into a coupled energy and climate-system optimization model to quantify the energy system implications of the different dietary scenarios, given a 2 degrees C target. The results indicate that a phase-out of ruminant products substantially increases the emission space for CO2 by about 250 GtC which reduces the necessary pace of the energy system transition and cuts the net present value energy-system mitigation costs by 25%, for staying below 2 degrees C. Importantly, the additional cost savings with a vegan diet--beyond those achieved with a phase-out of ruminant products--are marginal (only one additional percentage point). This means that a general reduction of meat consumption is a far less effective strategy for meeting the 2 degrees C target than a reduction of beef and dairy consumption.
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
- Cederberg, Christel, 1959, et al.
(author)
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Trends in greenhouse gas emissions from consumption and production of animal food products - implications for long-term climate targets
- 2013
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In: Animal. - 1751-7311 .- 1751-732X. ; 7:2, s. 330-340
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- To analyse trends in greenhouse (GHG) emissions from production and consumption of animal products in Sweden, life-cycle emissions were calculated for the average production of pork, chicken meat, beef, dairy and eggs in 1990 and 2005. The calculated average emissions were used together with food consumption statistics and literature data on imported products to estimate trends in per capita emissions from animal food consumption. Total life cycle emissions from the Swedish livestock production were around 8.5 Mt carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) in 1990 and emissions decreased to 7.3 Mt CO2e in 2005 (14% reduction). Around two-thirds of the emission cut was explained by more efficient production (less GHG emission per product unit) and one third was due to a reduced animal production. The average GHG emissions per product unit until the farm-gate were reduced by 20% for dairy, 15% for pork and 23% for chicken meat, unchanged for eggs and increased by 10% for beef. A larger share of the average beef was produced from suckler cows in cow-calf systems in 2005 due to the decreasing dairy cow herd, which explains the increased emissions for the average beef in 2005. The overall emissions cuts from the livestock sector were a result of several measures taken in farm production, for example increased dairy yield per cow, lowered use of synthetic nitrogen fertilisers in grasslands, reduced losses of ammonia from manure and a switch to biofuels for heating in chicken houses.In contrast to production, total GHG emissions from the Swedish consumption of animal products increased by around 22% between 1990 and 2005. This was explained by strong growth in meat consumption based mainly on imports, where growth in beef consumption especially was responsible for most emission increase over the 15-year period. Swedish GHG emissions caused by consumption of animal products reached around 1.1 tonnes CO2e per capita in 2005.The emission cuts necessary for meeting a global temperature-increase target of 2 degrees might imply a severe constraint on the long-term global consumption of animal food. Due to the relatively limited potential for reducing food-related emissions by higher productivity and technological means, structural changes in food consumption towards less emission intensive food might be required for meeting the 2-degree target.
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| 16. |
- Dees, M., et al.
(author)
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Status and Future of Biomass Assessment for Energetic Use in Europe
- 2012
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In: 20th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition. - 9788889407547 ; , s. 23-24
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Results from biomass potential assessments vary considerably, both on global and European level. On the other hand reliable figures on biomass potentials are an important basis for energy policy and for strategies that aim at an increase of use of biomass for energy both on EU-Level as well as e. g. on national level in the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) by the 27 member states. This paper is based on the findings of two projects, BEE and CEUBIOM. It presents an overview of the findings of these projects and includes an analysis of biomass potential aspects within the NREAPs. It presents how, based on an analysis of the status quo of potential studies, the projects developed proposals for a harmonisation of the methodologies and it presents the key areas they identified for future work in the field.
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| 17. |
- Dumas, Patrice, et al.
(author)
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Options to achieve net-zero emissions from agriculture and land use changes in Latin America and the Caribbean
- 2022
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Eleven countries in Latin America and the Caribbean have pledged to reach net-zero emissions by around 2050. Changes in the food system are key to reach these carbon neutrality goals, as agriculture and resulting land-use changes are responsible for almost half of greenhouse gas emissions in the region. We quantify the effect of supply-side (e.g., yield improvements, silvopasture, agroforestry) and demand-side (e.g., reduction of waste and losses, changing diets) options to reduce emissions and transform the land use system in a net carbon sink by 2050 while improving nutrition for the growing population. We consider both direct agriculture emissions and the pressure that food production puts on land use changes, and track separately emissions that happen in the region and emissions linked to trade. Our findings confirm that cattle plays a preponderant role, emitting nearly 60% of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and land-use change. Reaching a net-negative emissions food system able to balance emissions from the rest of the economy will require ambitious and sustained improvements in yields and changes in diets to moderate the increasing demand for beef, continuously decrease the share of land dedicated to agriculture, and increase instead land dedicated to carbon sequestration and biodiversity preservation.
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| 18. |
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| 19. |
- Egeskog, Andrea, 1981, et al.
(author)
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Greenhouse gas balances and land use changes associated with the planned expansion (to 2020) of the sugarcane ethanol industry in Sao Paulo, Brazil
- 2014
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In: Biomass and Bioenergy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1873-2909 .- 0961-9534. ; 63, s. 280-290
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Brazil is expected to increase its sugarcane production in the coming years. Almost 60% of the Brazilian sugarcane production in 2012 was situated in the state of São Paulo, where production is expected to increase further. This paper reports estimated direct land use changes and greenhouse gas balances (including soil carbon stock changes) associated with expanding production of sugarcane-based ethanol in São Paulo state. Geographic information about the location of existing and planned sugarcane mills and existing land use in these locations is used. Almost all of the sugarcane expansion in 2004-2008 took place on roughly equal shares of cropland or pasture land. The locations of the planned mills indicate that most new sugarcane might be planted on cropland unless the sugarcane is sourced from longer distances than has typically been the case. These results confirm that sugarcane expansion does not cause much direct deforestation but contrast with the view that direct competition for prime cropland is generally avoided since sugarcane is mostly planted on extensively used pasture lands. Analyses of greenhouse gas emissions and savings support the view that expansion of sugarcane ethanol in Brazil will likely bring about substantial savings - unless the expansion causes significant emissions associated with indirect land use change. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 20. |
- Fetzel, T., et al.
(author)
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Quantification of uncertainties in global grazing systems assessment
- 2017
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In: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 31:7, s. 1089-1102
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Livestock systems play a key role in global sustainability challenges like food security and climate change, yet many unknowns and large uncertainties prevail. We present a systematic, spatially explicit assessment of uncertainties related to grazing intensity (GI), a key metric for assessing ecological impacts of grazing, by combining existing data sets on (a) grazing feed intake, (b) the spatial distribution of livestock, (c) the extent of grazing land, and (d) its net primary productivity (NPP). An analysis of the resulting 96 maps implies that on average 15% of the grazing land NPP is consumed by livestock. GI is low in most of the world's grazing lands, but hotspots of very high GI prevail in 1% of the total grazing area. The agreement between GI maps is good on one fifth of the world's grazing area, while on the remainder, it is low to very low. Largest uncertainties are found in global drylands and where grazing land bears trees (e.g., the Amazon basin or the Taiga belt). In some regions like India or Western Europe, massive uncertainties even result in GI > 100% estimates. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that the input data for NPP, animal distribution, and grazing area contribute about equally to the total variability in GI maps, while grazing feed intake is a less critical variable. We argue that a general improvement in quality of the available global level data sets is a precondition for improving the understanding of the role of livestock systems in the context of global environmental change or food security. Plain Language Summary Livestock systems play a key role in global sustainability challenges like food security and climate change, yet many unknowns and large uncertainties prevail. We present a systematic assessment of uncertainties related to the intensity of grazing, a key metric for assessing ecological impacts of grazing. We combine existing data sets on (a) grazing feed intake, (b) the spatial distribution of livestock, (c) the extent of grazing land, and (d) the biomass available for grazing. Our results show that most grasslands are used with low intensity, but hotspots of high intensity prevail on 1% of the global grazing area, mainly located in drylands and where grazing land bears trees. The agreement between all maps is good on one fifth of the global grazing area, while on the remainder, it is low to very low. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that the input data for available biomass, animal distribution, and grazing area contribute about equally to the total variability of our maps, while grazing feed intake is a less critical variable. We argue that a general improvement in quality of the available data sets is a precondition for improving the understanding of livestock systems in the context of global environmental change or food security.
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