| 11. |
- Andersson, Anna, et al.
(författare)
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How unnecessarily high abatement costs and unresolved distributional issues undermine nutrient reductions to the Baltic Sea
- 2021
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Ingår i: AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 51, s. 51–68-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper systematically reviews the literature on how to reduce nutrient emissions to the Baltic Sea cost-effectively and considerations for allocating these costs fairly among countries. The literature shows conclusively that the reduction targets of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) could be achieved at considerably lower cost, if countries would cooperate to implement the least costly abatement plan. Focusing on phosphorus abatement could be prudent as the often recommended measures—wastewater treatment and wetlands—abate nitrogen too. An implication of our review is that the potential for restoring the Baltic Sea to good health is undermined by an abatement strategy that is more costly than necessary and likely to be perceived as unfair by several countries. Neither the BSAP nor the cost-effective solution meet the surveyed criteria for fairness, implying a need for side-payments.
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
- Bartkowski, Bartosz, et al.
(författare)
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Payments by modelled results : A novel design for agri-environmental schemes
- 2021
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Ingår i: Land Use Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0264-8377 .- 1873-5754. ; 102
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- From a theoretical point of view, result-based agri-environmental payments are clearly preferable to action-based payments. However, they suffer from two major practical disadvantages: costs of measuring the results and payment uncertainty for the participating farmers. In this paper, we propose an alternative design to overcome these two disadvantages by means of modelling (instead of measuring) the results. We describe the concept of agri-environmental payments by modelled results (PAMR), including a hypothetical example of payments for the protection and enhancement of soil functions. We offer a comprehensive discussion of the relative advantages and disadvantages of PAMR, showing that it not only unites most of the different advantages of result-based and action-based schemes, but also adds two new advantages: the potential to address trade-offs among multiple policy objectives and management for long-term environmental effects. We argue that PAMR would be a valuable addition to the agri-environmental policy toolbox in the EU and beyond, while also reflecting recent advancements in agri-environmental modelling.
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| 14. |
- Berntell, Ellen, et al.
(författare)
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Mid-Pliocene West African Monsoon rainfall as simulated in the PlioMIP2 ensemble
- 2021
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 17:4, s. 1777-1794
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; ∼3.2 million years ago) is seen as the most recent time period characterized by a warm climate state, with similar to modern geography and ∼400 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration, and is therefore often considered an interesting analogue for near-future climate projections. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions indicate higher surface temperatures, decreasing tropical deserts, and a more humid climate in West Africa characterized by a strengthened West African Monsoon (WAM). Using model results from the second phase of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) ensemble, we analyse changes of the WAM rainfall during the mPWP by comparing them with the control simulations for the pre-industrial period. The ensemble shows a robust increase in the summer rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region, with an average increase of 2.5 mm/d, contrasted by a rainfall decrease over the equatorial Atlantic. An anomalous warming of the Sahara and deepening of the Saharan Heat Low, seen in >90 % of the models, leads to a strengthening of the WAM and an increased monsoonal flow into the continent. A similar warming of the Sahara is seen in future projections using both phase 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Though previous studies of future projections indicate a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, PlioMIP2 simulations indicate a uniform rainfall increase in that region in warm climates characterized by increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We note that this effect will further depend on the long-term response of the vegetation to the CO2 forcing.
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| 15. |
- Boke Olén, Niklas, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of farm type on food production, landscape openness, grassland biodiversity, and greenhouse gas emissions in mixed agricultural-forestry regions
- 2021
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Ingår i: Agricultural Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0308-521X .- 1873-2267. ; 189
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context: The global demand for food is expected to continue increasing for decades, which may drive both agricultural expansion and intensification. The associated environmental impacts are potentially considerable but will depend on how the agricultural sector develops. Currently, there are contrasting regional developments in agriculture; expansion and/or intensification in some regions and abandonment in others, as well as changes in the type of farming. However, the environmental consequences of changes in farm type are not well understood. Objective: We have evaluated the impacts of farm type on food production and three key environmental variables—landscape openness, grassland biodiversity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions—in three marginal agricultural regions in Sweden. Methods: We do this by first dividing the population of farms in each region into types, based on their land-use and livestock holdings using an innovative clustering method. Thereafter we analysed changes in production activities for farm types over time and evaluated the environmental and food-production impacts, where landscape openness is quantified using a novel indicator. Results and conclusion: Our results show that there is not one single farm type that would simultaneously maximize food production, grassland biodiversity, and landscape openness, whilst minimizing GHG emissions. However, there exists considerable potential to manage the trade-offs between food production and these environmental variables. For example, by reducing land use for dairying and instead increasing both cropping for food production and extensive livestock grazing to maintain landscape openness and biodiversity-rich semi-natural pastures, it would keep food production at similar levels. Significance: Our farm typology allows us to assess the multifunctionality of farming, by relating contrasting production activities to multiple ecosystem services, grassland biodiversity and GHG emissions for informing policy towards more sustainable agriculture. We have demonstrated this with examples under Swedish conditions, but it should to a large extent also be applicable for other countries.
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| 16. |
- Brady, Mark, et al.
(författare)
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An agent-based approach to modeling impacts of agricultural policy on land use, biodiversity and ecosystem services
- 2012
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Ingår i: Landscape Ecology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1572-9761 .- 0921-2973. ; 27:9, s. 1363-1381
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present extensions to the agent-based agricultural policy simulator (AgriPoliS) model that make it possible to simulate the consequences of agricultural policy reform on farmers' land use decisions and concomitant impacts on landscape mosaic, biodiversity and ecosystem services in a real agricultural region. An observed population of farms is modelled as a multi-agent system where individual farm-agent behaviour and their interactions-principally competition for land-are defined through an optimization framework with land use and landscape impacts resulting as emergent properties of the system. The model is calibrated to real data on the farms and the landscape to be studied. We illustrate the utility of the model by evaluating the potential impacts of three alternative frameworks for the European Union Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on landscape values in two marginal agricultural regions. Mosaic value was found to be sensitive to the choice of policy scheme in one of the landscapes, whereas significant trade-offs were shown to occur in terms of species richness by habitat and species composition at the landscape scale in both regions. The relationship between food production and other ecosystem services was found to be multifaceted. Thus illustrating the difficulty of achieving landscape goals in a particular region with simple or general land management rules (such as the current rules attached to CAPs direct payments). Given the scarcity of funding for conservation, the level and conditions for allocating direct payments are, potentially, of great importance for preserving landscape values in marginal agricultural regions (subject to levels of other support).
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| 17. |
- Brady, Mark
(författare)
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An agent-based model for assessing the impacts of decoupled agricultural support on landscape values
- 2009
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In this article we present an empirical agent-based landscape model that is capable of simulating the consequences of changes in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)—or any other economic parameters—on landscape mosaic and biodiversity in a real agricultural region. The model links changes in policy to structural change in agricultural production and concomitant impacts on the landscape (measured using relevant indicators). The utility of our approach is that it can use anonymous survey data on individual farms combined with generally available landscape metrics to generate an empirical agent-based model of a real agricultural landscape. We use the model to evaluate the consequences of the 2005 decoupling reform on landscape mosaic and biodiversity for a cross-section of case-study regions in EU-27. Our results demonstrated that eliminating the link between support payments and production has ostensibly quite negative consequences for the landscape but only in particular regions and circumstances. In other regions decoupled support was shown to be redundant in terms of generating landscape benefits. Implications for continued CAP reform are discussed
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| 18. |
- Brady, Mark, et al.
(författare)
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Estimating the resilience value of soil biodiversity in agriculture: a stochastic simulation approach
- 2011
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Ingår i: Proceedings EAAE 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland. ; , s. 1-16
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Abstract in UndeterminedCharacteristic of ecosystems is that different organisms can have similar functions and hence provide similar ecosystem services. Consequently functional diversity can maintain the rate of services despite environmental fluctuations. In this paper we present a method for estimating the resilience value of biodiversity. Central to a resilience perspective on biological conservation is consideration of uncertainty about the future. To do this we propose stochastic simulation as a practical approach for valuing resilience due to the ease of incorporating uncertain variables. We demonstrate the approach by developing a stochastic simulation model for valuing soil biodiversity in agriculture. Our results indicate that the long time frames involved in soil processes create a significant incentive to perpetuate unsustainable farming systems and hence there might be a need for policy intervention. However we also show that investing in soil biodiversity conservation can provide significant risk diversification benefits that are not accounted for in a deterministic evaluation. These benefits can be estimated through stochastic simulation.
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| 19. |
- Brady, Mark, et al.
(författare)
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Fixing problems in fisheries-integrating ITQs, CBM and MPAs in management
- 2009
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Ingår i: Marine Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0308-597X .- 1872-9460. ; 33:2, s. 258-263
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We aim to show how some of the important interdisciplinary fixes or solutions to diverse problems observed in fisheries can complement each other. This can be achieved through methodical allocation of the rights pertaining to fisheries and simultaneous implementation of policy instruments to correct for market failures and equity concerns. We emphasize via a roadmap that there are some general principles that should be invoked when choosing between alternative structures of rights. Our examples from Sweden provide evidence of the flexibility of fishing rights and how they can be adapted to integrate fixes from different disciplines into practical fisheries management.
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| 20. |
- Brady, Mark, et al.
(författare)
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Fungerar politiken för ett renare Östersjön?
- 2022
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Ingår i: Policy brief / AgriFood Economics Centre.
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Annan publikation (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Trots att jordbrukets näringsutsläpp till Östersjön har minskat krävs mycket mer för att uppnå de uppsatta miljömålen. Vi har utvärderat politiken som används för att minska utsläppen från de nio länder som samarbetar om restaureringen av Östersjön. Vi finner att den nuvarande politiken är otillräcklig eftersom: • Många länder har inte genomfört de utlovade åtgärderna för att minska näringsutsläpp från jordbruket. • Viljan att minska utsläppen undergrävs av en åtgärdsplan som är onödigt kostsam och som upplevs som orättvis. • Vissa länder har svaga lokala institutioner medan andra har ineffektiva miljöstöd.
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