| 11. |
- Jürgensen, Jan Henning, 1987-, et al.
(författare)
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Estimation of Individual Failure Rates for Power System Components Based on Risk Functions
- 2019
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Ingår i: IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery. - 0885-8977 .- 1937-4208. ; 34:4, s. 1599-1607
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The failure rate is essential in power system reliability assessment and thus far, it has been commonly assumed as constant. This is a basic approach that delivers reasonable results. However, this approach neglects the heterogeneity in component populations, which has a negative impact on the accuracy of the failure rate. This paper proposes a method based on risk functions, which describes the risk behavior of condition measurements over time, to compute individual failure rates within populations. The method is applied to a population of 12 power transformers on transmission level. The computed individual failure rates depict the impact of maintenance and that power transformers with long operation times have a higher failure rate. Moreover, this paper presents a procedure based on the proposed approach to forecast failure rates. Finally, the individual failure rates are calculated over a specified prediction horizon and depicted with a 95% confidence interval.
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| 12. |
- Jürgensen, Jan Henning, 1987-, et al.
(författare)
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Health index as condition estimator for power system equipment : A critical discussion and case study
- 2017
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Ingår i: CIRED - Congrès International des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution, 2017.. - : Institution of Engineering and Technology. ; , s. 202-205
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the past decade, the health index has become an increasingly popular asset management tool in utilities. The health index as a condition indicator can improve the decision making process. However, it also has challenges which need to be considered during development and implementation. This paper addresses the advantages and disadvantages of the health index as a condition indicator in a critical discussion. Moreover, a case study is presented where a health index is calculated for three transmission power transformers. The case study illustrates that age and the load factor included in the health index calculation lead to an immoderately high health index for the transformers T2 and T3. Thus, the paper ageing of the transformer windings are used instead which results in a plausible condition representation of all three transformers. The case study also demonstrates that the observation of condition trends over time is lost if the health index is transformed into a linguistic expression.
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| 13. |
- Jürgensen, Jan Henning, 1987-, et al.
(författare)
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Impact Assessment of Remote Control and Preventive Maintenance on the Failure Rate of a Disconnector Population
- 2018
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Ingår i: IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery. - : IEEE. - 0885-8977 .- 1937-4208. ; 33:4, s. 1501-1509
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents the impact of different explanatory variables such as remote control availability and conducted preventive maintenance, among others, on failure statistics of a disconnector population in Sweden using the proportional hazard model. To do so, 2191 work orders were analysed which included 1626 disconnectors and 278 major failures. Here, the results show that the remote control availability for disconnectors - an example of such Smart Grid technology - has a negative effect on the failure rate, whereas preventive maintenance has a positive impact. It is also shown that the disconnector age is not significant and that certain disconnector types have a significant and positive correlation towards failures when compared to other disconnector types. The results increase the understanding of disconnector failures to improve asset management.
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| 14. |
- Jürgensen, Jan Henning, 1987-
(författare)
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Individual Failure Rate Modelling and Exploratory Failure Data Analysis for Power System Components
- 2018
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A set of vital societal functions such as health and safety are necessary for today's society to function and to secure the life of its individuals. Infrastructure is required to provide and maintain these functions. This for society critical infrastructure includes electronic communication technology, transport systems, oil \& gas supply, water supply, and the supply of electric power. The electric power system plays a central role in the critical infrastructure since it is required to operate all others. Therefore, outages in the power system can have severe consequences not solely for the supply of electricity but also for the supply of water, gas, and food. To provide a reliable and safe power supply, power system operators are applying asset management strategies to investigate, plan, maintain, and utilize the system and its components while improving the performance under its own financial constraints.One approach to increase the reliability of the power grid while decreasing costs is maintenance planning, scheduling, and optimization. To optimize maintenance, a reliability measure for power system components is required. The failure rate, which is the probability of failure in a predefined interval, is utilized in maintenance optimization. Thus far, an average failure rate has been assigned to all components of the same type due to a shortage of component failure data. However, this limits the accuracy of maintenance techniques since the component heterogeneity is neglected. Moreover, the actual failure rate is being underrated or overrated and it is a challenge to identify the impact of conducted maintenance tasks.This thesis presents how the failure rate accuracy can be improved despite limited failure data available. Firstly, an introduction to failure rate modelling theory, concepts, and definitions is given to provide a common understanding for the later chapters and papers. Secondly, regression models are presented which can be used to model, predict, and characterise the failure rate and failure intensity for power system components. The Cox regression and regression models for count data are applied to two case studies of disconnector and circuit breaker failure data. The results contribute to an improved modelling of the failure rate on individual level but also improve the understanding of risk factor's impact on component failures. However, the aforementioned regression models have rarely been applied in the power system domain due to the limited failure data. Thirdly, the necessity to distinguish between population and individual failure rates is illustrated and risk factors and methods are presented, which are frequently used in failure rate modelling. Moreover, the thesis presents a method to calculate and predict individual failure rates despite the occurrence of actual failures which is of particular advantage for new components.
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| 15. |
- Jürgensen, Jan Henning, 1987-, et al.
(författare)
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Individual failure rates for transformers within a population based on diagnostic measures
- 2016
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Ingår i: Electric power systems research. - : Elsevier. - 0378-7796 .- 1873-2046. ; 141, s. 354-362
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The high monetary value of a transformer has placed the transformer life-time optimization into the focus of asset management. The average failure rate has created reasonable results within reliability modeling, however, it cannot reflect the probability of failure for an individual transformer. In this paper, a method is introduced to calculate individual failure rates for a transformer population based on failure statistics and diagnostic measurements such as dissolved gas, and 2-furfuraldehyde analysis. The method is applicable to all types of components and the comprehensibility makes it effective for practical implementation. The results are evaluated against two health indices based on a weight factor and fuzzy logic. It can be observed that the presented individual failure rates are plausible representatives of the transformer's probability of failure. Therefore, the results can also be utilized for asset management decision-making.
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| 16. |
- Jürgensen, Jan Henning, 1987-, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling of Recurrent Circuit Breaker Failures with Regression Models for Count Data
- 2018
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- High voltage circuit breaker (CB) are of fundamental importance to protect and operate the power system. To improve their performance and to better predict failures, it is necessary to understand the effect of covariates such as preventive maintenance, age, voltage level, and the CB type. A straightforward approach is to investigate recurrent failures with regression models for count data. In this paper, several regression models are developed to estimate the impact of the aforementioned covariates to predict the recurrence of failures. The results show that age has a significant and negative impact, preventive maintenance before the first failure has a positive impact, and that the voltage level has a negative impact. Moreover, the Poisson, Negative Binomial, and zero-inflated models are compared. The comparison shows that the Negative Binomial model has the best fit to the studied recurrent failure data.
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| 17. |
- Jürgensen, Jan Henning, 1987-, et al.
(författare)
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The Proportional Hazard Model and the Modelling of Recurrent Failure Data : Analysis of a Disconnector Population in Sweden
- 2017
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Ingår i: 2017 Cigré SC B3 (Substations) Colloquium, 18 - 20 September 2017, Recife, Brazil. ; , s. 1-8
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Failure rate estimation is an important tool for planning and operating decision making in asset management of the power system. Moreover, the knowledge of how different explanatory variables impact the failure rate of the power system equipment is crucial for substation design. This study investigates 2191 work orders of 1626 non-current breaking disconnectors with 344 major failures. In particular, this paper analyses the disconnector failure data regarding recurrent failure data. Since the original PHM cannot handle recurrent event data, different extensions were developed such as the Andersen-Gill (AG), Prentice, Williams and Peterson (PWP), and the Wei, Lin, and Weissfeld (WLW) model. These models are applied to the disconnector dataset with 140 recurrent time-to-failure processes. The explanatory variables age at admission, remote control, preventive maintenance, and voltage level are assessed. The results show that preventive maintenance has a significant and positive impact on the recurrences with all tested methods. Also remote control, voltage level, and age are significant covariates. Compared to the single failure study previously conducted, where age had no significance, age is significant when assessing the recurrent failure which is the most critical difference to the analysis without recurrences.
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| 18. |
- Mashad Nemati, Hassan, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
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Reliability Evaluation of Power Cables Considering the Restoration Characteristic
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems. - London : Elsevier. - 0142-0615 .- 1879-3517. ; 105, s. 622-631
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper Weibull parametric proportional hazard model (PHM) is used to estimate the failure rate of every individual cable based on its age and a set of explanatory factors. The required information for the proposed method is obtained by exploiting available historical cable inventory and failure data. This data-driven method does not require any additional measurements on the cables, and allows the cables to be ranked for maintenance prioritization and repair actions.Furthermore, the results of reliability analysis of power cables are compared when the cables are considered as repairable or non-repairable components. The paper demonstrates that the methods which estimate the time-to-the-first failure (for non-repairable components) lead to incorrect conclusions about reliability of repairable power cables.The proposed method is used to evaluate the failure rate of each individual Paper Insulated Lead Cover (PILC) underground cables in a distribution grid in the south of Sweden.
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| 19. |
- Sadik, Diane-Perle, 1988-, et al.
(författare)
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Introduction of SiC MOSFETs in Converters based on Si IGBTs : A Reliability and Efficiency Analysis
- 2017
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Ingår i: 2017 IEEE 3rd International Future Energy Electronics Conference and ECCE Asia, IFEEC - ECCE Asia 2017. - : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). - 9781509051571 ; , s. 1680-1685
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Silicon Carbide (SiC) Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor Field-Effect Transistors (MOSFETs) have the potential to increase the power density in power electronics converters compared to the currently used silicon (Si). Their benefits are higher efficiency, higher switching speeds, and higher operating temperatures. Moreover, SiC MOSFETs, which are normally-off, offer the possibility to directly replace Si Isolated-Gate-BipolarTransistors (IGBTs) in already existing converter designs with minimal circuit changes. Nevertheless, as an emerging technology, the reliability performance remains to be investigated. A reliability analysis has been performed based on a full-bridge resonant converter rated at 60 kW for modern Electrostatic Precipitator (ESP) power supplies. This analysis shows that introducing SiC devices will increase the lifetime of the converter while reducing the losses. The investment costs of replacing the Si IGBTs with SiC MOSFETs can thus be covered with the reduction of the losses over the economical operational lifetime. Furthermore, a theoretical analysis on how introducing SiC MOSFETs could increase the power density of the converter while maintaining the efficiency and the reliability. Finally, an analysis on introducing redundancy as a way to improve the reliability of the system has been performed.
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| 20. |
- Wallnerström, Carl Johan, 1980-, et al.
(författare)
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Analys av smartaelnätsteknologier inom kategorin elnätslösningar
- 2014
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Denna rapport presenterar resultat från en studie där inverkan av så kallade smartaelnätsteknologier/lösningar har analyserats. Utöver egna analysresultat identifieras behov av framtida forskning, detta kompletteras med hänvisningar till fördjupningsmaterial Smartaelnätsteknologier innebär nya möjligheter, men också nya utmaningar och risker. Ett behov av att utveckla nya metoder för tillförlitlighetsberäkningar och riskanalys har identifieras. På grund av bristande erfarenhet gällande många nya tekniker och lösningar av smartaelnätsteknologier är det värdefullt med demonstrationsanläggningar såsom Smart Grid Gotland, varifrån indata har erhållits. Information om Smart Grid Gotland och Gotlands elkraftsystem sammanfattas i rapporten. Gotlands regionnät har även implementerats i datorverktyget NEPLAN. En visuell modell av ett elnät med integrerade smartaelnätsteknologier som kan illustrera möjligheter och utmaningar ur ett systemperspektiv. I rapporten behandlas även frågan om framtida kompetensbehov till följd av smarta elnät ur ett riskperspektiv. En stor mängd timvis väderdata har bearbetats och analyserats tillsammans med timvis data för elkonsumtion och lokal elproduktion. Samband mellan olika parametrar har identifierats, vilka kan vara värdefulla att använda sig av vid utvecklandet av smarta lösningar i elnätet. Resultat från denna initiala analys av indata har använts i genomförda analyser, men kan även vara användbarts referensmaterial i andra studier. Ett analysverktyg har tagits fram för att analysera integrering av elproduktion från både vindkraftturbiner och solkraft, analys av acceptgränser, dynamisk belastningsförmåga och energilager. Hänsyn tas till vädrets påverkan på elproduktions- och elkonsumtionsmönster samt överföringskapacitet. Dynamisk belastningsförmåga innebär att systemets överföringskapacitet varierar dynamiskt med avseende på externa parametrar såsom väder, vilket ökar möjligheten att nyttja ekraftsystem mer effektivt. Analysresultat från flera olika scenarion presenteras i rapporten, vilka visar på olika exempel avseende hur elnätet kan hantera högre maxnivå av elkonsumtion och/eller elproduktion utan fysiska nätförstärkningar. I rapporten presenteras även exempel på hur denna lösning i vissa fall kan öka leveranssäkerhet. Potential av att använda sammanlagring mellan elkonsumtion och lokal elproduktion har analyserats, det vill säga hur dessa tar ut varandra. Även resultat för olika risknivåer med avseende på överlast har analyserats för flera olika scenarier, med och utan dynamisk belastningsförmåga. Om överlast endast medför ökat slitage går det att tänka sig att det kan tillåtas under korta perioder. Energilagring har analyserats ur ett teknikneutralt perspektiv och resultat redovisas som kravlistor. Av elproduktion från vindkraftturbiner respektive solkraft och elkonsumtion kan ett lika stort energilager höja maxeffekten av solkraft mer jämfört med övriga analyserade kategorier. Även energilager i systemdel innehållendes både elkonsumtion och elproduktion, vilken har problem med både import- och exportbegränsningar, har analyserats. Denna kombination balanserar ofta varandra så att överlast undviks; energilagret tar hand om de två ytterligheterna: export- respektive importtoppar. Hur energilager potentiellt kan användas för att höja leveranskvalitet har också analyserats. Energilager som hanterar överföringstoppar behöver endast användas under en liten period av årets timmar och skulle därför kunna användas för flera olika saker såsom att öka leverenssäkerhet. I ett appendix till rapporten görs en ansats till att koppla studiens innehåll till rekommendationer presenterade i Samordningsrådet för smarta elnäts handlingsplan.
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