| 11. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 12. |
- Luo, Ziteng, et al.
(författare)
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Roots-Enhanced Preferential Flows in Deciduous and Coniferous Forest Soils Revealed by Dual-Tracer Experiments
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Quality. - : Wiley. - 0047-2425. ; 48:1, s. 136-146
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Macropores formed by roots are crucial channels for preferential flows in forest soils that are largely responsible for water percolation and solute leaching. Using dual-tracer experiments (Brilliant Blue FCF and bromide [Br]), this study investigated the preferential flows of water and solutes in a deciduous forest dominated by Bl. and a coniferous forest mainly planted with (L.) Franco. Dye-stained patterns and concentrations of Brilliant Blue and Br were obtained in vertical soil profiles (0-30 cm), whereas stained and unstained roots were collected and analyzed in horizontal soil profiles to a 30-cm soil depth. Brilliant Blue and Br were mainly accumulated in the 0- to 20-cm soil depth, which had greater total root length density than the 20- to 30-cm soil depth ( < 0.05). Only part of the roots facilitated the preferential flows, with finer roots (i.e., diameter <1 mm) contributing the most. More intriguingly, the coniferous forest soil had a greater degree of preferential flows and greater tracer concentrations at deeper soil depth than the deciduous forest soil, suggesting the importance of tree species and forest composition on water and solute transport in forest ecosystems.
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| 13. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 14. |
- Xu, Zefei, et al.
(författare)
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Biocatalytic Access to 1,4-Diazepanes via Imine Reductase-Catalyzed Intramolecular Asymmetric Reductive Amination
- 2020
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Ingår i: ACS Catalysis. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 2155-5435. ; 10:15, s. 8780-8787
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An enzymatic intramolecular asymmetric reductive amination has been developed for the synthesis of chiral 1,4-diazepanes. Several enantiocomplementary IREDs were identified for the synthesis of (R)- and (S)-5-chloro-2-(5-methyl-1,4-diazepan-1-yl)benzo[d]oxazole with high enan- tioselectivity. The catalytic efficiency of (R)-selective IRED from Leishmania major (IR1) and (S)-selective IRED from Micromonospora echinaurantiaca IR25) was 0.027 and 0.962 s(-1) mM(-1), respectively. To further improve the catalytic efficiency of IR1, its double mutant Y194F/D232H was identified by saturation mutagenesis and iterative combinatorial mutagenesis, which exhibited 61-fold in the catalytic efficiency relative to that of wild-type enzyme. The density functional calculations and molecular dynamics simulations provided some insights into the molecular basis for the improved activity of mutant Y194F/D232H. Furthermore, Y194F/D232H and IR25 were applied to access a range of different substituted 1,4-diazepanes with high enantiomeric excess (from 93 to >99%). This study offers an effective method for construction of chiral 1,4-diazepanes of pharmaceutical importance via imine reductase-catalyzed intramolecular reductive amination of the corresponding aminoketones.
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| 15. |
- Zhang, Yumeng, et al.
(författare)
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Molecular insight into flow resistance of choline chloride/urea confined in ionic model nanoslits
- 2021
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Ingår i: Fluid Phase Equilibria. - : Elsevier. - 0378-3812 .- 1879-0224. ; 533
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Choline chloride/urea (1:2) is the most widely used deep eutectic solvent, which has attracted much attention due to its excellent advantages of low cost, environment friendly and easy synthesis. In this work, nanofriction-based molecular dynamics simulations were performed to investigate the effect of interfacial hydrophilicity on the flow resistance of Choline chloride/urea (1:2) confined in ionic model nanoslits. Simulation results showed that the flow resistance of the choline chloride/urea system increases with the increasing interfacial hydrophilicity. Urea molecules form a preferential adsorption layer on the wall. As the interfacial hydrophilicity increases, the number of urea molecules in the interfacial adsorption layer increased, whereas the stability decreased. Unique confined spatial distributions of urea molecules greatly contribute to ionic association between choline cations and chloride anions. Furthermore, with the increase of interfacial hydrophilicity, orientation distributions of urea molecules in the adsorption layer are more orderly, then causing a decrease in the average hydrogen bond number (NHB) of urea molecules. Moreover, the more the NHB of urea molecules, the better is the stability in the interfacial adsorption layer, which in turn results in less flow resistance.
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| 16. |
- Zhou, Jinyuan, et al.
(författare)
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Review and consensus recommendations on clinical APT-weighted imaging approaches at 3T : Application to brain tumors
- 2022
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Ingår i: Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. - : Wiley. - 1522-2594 .- 0740-3194. ; 88:2, s. 546-574
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Amide proton transfer-weighted (APTw) MR imaging shows promise as a biomarker of brain tumor status. Currently used APTw MRI pulse sequences and protocols vary substantially among different institutes, and there are no agreed-on standards in the imaging community. Therefore, the results acquired from different research centers are difficult to compare, which hampers uniform clinical application and interpretation. This paper reviews current clinical APTw imaging approaches and provides a rationale for optimized APTw brain tumor imaging at 3 T, including specific recommendations for pulse sequences, acquisition protocols, and data processing methods. We expect that these consensus recommendations will become the first broadly accepted guidelines for APTw imaging of brain tumors on 3 T MRI systems from different vendors. This will allow more medical centers to use the same or comparable APTw MRI techniques for the detection, characterization, and monitoring of brain tumors, enabling multi-center trials in larger patient cohorts and, ultimately, routine clinical use.
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| 17. |
- Zhu, Can, et al.
(författare)
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Tuning the electron-deficient core of a non-fullerene acceptor to achieve over 17% efficiency in a single-junction organic solar cell
- 2020
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Ingår i: Energy & Environmental Science. - : ROYAL SOC CHEMISTRY. - 1754-5692 .- 1754-5706. ; 13:8, s. 2459-2466
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Finding effective molecular design strategies to enable efficient charge generation and small energy loss is among the long-standing challenges in developing high performance non-fullerene organic solar cells (OSCs). Recently, we reported Y-series non-fullerene acceptors with an electron-deficient-core-based fused structure (typically Y6), opening a new door to achieve high external quantum efficiency (∼80%) while maintaining low energy loss (∼0.57 eV). On this basis, further reducing the energy losses and ultimately improving the performance of OSCs has become a research hotspot. In this paper, we design and synthesize a new member of the Y-series acceptor family, Y18, which adopts a fused benzotriazole segment with unique luminescence properties as its electron-deficient core. Compared to Y6, the benzotriazole-based acceptor Y18 exhibits extended optical absorption and higher voltage. Consequently, the device delivers a promising power conversion efficiency of 16.52% with a very low energy loss of 0.53 eV. Further device optimization by exploiting a ternary blend strategy allowed us to achieve a high efficiency of 17.11% (certified as 16.76% by NREL). Y18 may become one of the most important candidate materials for its broader absorption spectra and higher voltage of Y18 (compared to Y6) in the OSCs field.
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| 18. |
- Zhu, Shanshan, et al.
(författare)
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Genomic insights on the contribution of balancing selection and local adaptation to the long-term survival of a widespread living fossil tree,Cercidiphyllum japonicum
- 2020
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Ingår i: New Phytologist. - : WILEY. - 0028-646X .- 1469-8137. ; 228:5, s. 1674-1689
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- 'Living fossils' are testimonies of long-term sustained ecological success, but how demographic history and natural selection contributed to their survival, resilience, and persistence in the face of Quaternary climate fluctuations remains unclear. To better understand the interplay between demographic history and selection in shaping genomic diversity and evolution of such organisms, we assembled the whole genome ofCercidiphyllum japonicum, a widespread East Asian Tertiary relict tree, and resequenced 99 individuals ofC. japonicumand its sister species,Cercidiphyllum magnificum(Central Japan). We dated this speciation event to the mid-Miocene, and the intraspecific lineage divergence ofC. japonicum(China vs Japan) to the Early Pliocene. Throughout climatic upheavals of the late Tertiary/Quaternary, population bottlenecks greatly reduced the genetic diversity ofC. japonicum. However, this polymorphism loss was likely counteracted by, first, long-term balancing selection at multiple chromosomal and heterozygous gene regions, potentially reflecting overdominance, and, second, selective sweeps at stress response and growth-related genes likely involved in local adaptation. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of how living fossils have survived climatic upheaval and maintained an extensive geographic range; that is, both types of selection could be major factors contributing to the species' survival, resilience, and persistence.
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| 19. |
- Zhu, Yuhui, et al.
(författare)
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Devils in the Clouds : An Evolutionary Study of Telnet Bot Loaders
- 2023
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Ingår i: ICC 2023 - IEEE International Conference on Communications. - : IEEE. - 9781538674628 - 9781538674635 ; , s. 2338-2344
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- One of the innovations brought by Mirai and its derived malware is the adoption of self-contained loaders for infecting IoT devices and recruiting them in botnets. Functionally decoupled from other botnet components and not embedded in the payload, loaders cannot be analysed using conventional approaches that rely on honeypots for capturing samples. Different approaches are necessary for studying the loaders evolution and defining a genealogy. To address the insufficient knowledge about loaders' lineage in existing studies, in this paper, we propose a semantic-aware method to measure, categorize, and compare different loader servers, with the goal of highlighting their evolution, independent from the payload evolution. Leveraging behavior-based metrics, we cluster the discovered loaders and define eight families to determine the genealogy and draw a homology map. Our study shows that the source code of Mirai is evolving and spawning new botnets with new capabilities, both on the client side and the server side. In turn, shedding light on the infection loaders can help the cybersecurity community to improve detection and prevention tools.
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