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- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(författare)
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Global burden of stroke and risk factors in 188 countries, during 1990–2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet Neurology. - 1474-4422. ; 15:9, s. 913-924
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The contribution of modifiable risk factors to the increasing global and regional burden of stroke is unclear, but knowledge about this contribution is crucial for informing stroke prevention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) to estimate the population-attributable fraction (PAF) of stroke-related disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with potentially modifiable environmental, occupational, behavioural, physiological, and metabolic risk factors in different age and sex groups worldwide and in high-income countries and low-income and middle-income countries, from 1990 to 2013. Methods We used data on stroke-related DALYs, risk factors, and PAF from the GBD 2013 Study to estimate the burden of stroke by age and sex (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UI]) in 188 countries, as measured with stroke-related DALYs in 1990 and 2013. We evaluated attributable DALYs for 17 risk factors (air pollution and environmental, dietary, physical activity, tobacco smoke, and physiological) and six clusters of risk factors by use of three inputs: risk factor exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. For most risk factors, we synthesised data for exposure with a Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR) or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. We based relative risks on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks, such as high body-mass index (BMI), through other risks, such as high systolic blood pressure (SBP) and high total cholesterol. Findings Globally, 90·5% (95% UI 88·5–92·2) of the stroke burden (as measured in DALYs) was attributable to the modifiable risk factors analysed, including 74·2% (95% UI 70·7–76·7) due to behavioural factors (smoking, poor diet, and low physical activity). Clusters of metabolic factors (high SBP, high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, high total cholesterol, and low glomerular filtration rate; 72·4%, 95% UI 70·2–73·5) and environmental factors (air pollution and lead exposure; 33·4%, 95% UI 32·4–34·3) were the second and third largest contributors to DALYs. Globally, 29·2% (95% UI 28·2–29·6) of the burden of stroke was attributed to air pollution. Although globally there were no significant differences between sexes in the proportion of stroke burden due to behavioural, environmental, and metabolic risk clusters, in the low-income and middle-income countries, the PAF of behavioural risk clusters in males was greater than in females. The PAF of all risk factors increased from 1990 to 2013 (except for second-hand smoking and household air pollution from solid fuels) and varied significantly between countries. Interpretation Our results suggest that more than 90% of the stroke burden is attributable to modifiable risk factors, and achieving control of behavioural and metabolic risk factors could avert more than three-quarters of the global stroke burden. Air pollution has emerged as a significant contributor to global stroke burden, especially in low-income and middle-income countries, and therefore reducing exposure to air pollution should be one of the main priorities to reduce stroke burden in these countries. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Heart Association, US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Columbia University, Health Research Council of New Zealand, Brain Research New Zealand Centre of Research Excellence, and National Science Challenge, Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment of New Zealand.
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- Seiffge, David J., et al.
(författare)
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Timing of anticoagulation after recent ischaemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation
- 2019
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Ingår i: The Lancet. Neurology. - 1474-4465. ; 18:1, s. 117-126
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: About 13-26% of all acute ischaemic strokes are related to non-valvular atrial fibrillation, the most common cardiac arrhythmia globally. Deciding when to initiate oral anticoagulation in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation is a longstanding, common, and unresolved clinical challenge. Although the risk of early recurrent ischaemic stroke is high in this population, early oral anticoagulation is suspected to increase the risk of potentially harmful intracranial haemorrhage, including haemorrhagic transformation of the infarct. This assumption, and current treatment guidelines, are based on historical, mostly observational data from patients with ischaemic stroke and atrial fibrillation treated with heparins, heparinoids, or vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) to prevent recurrent ischaemic stroke. Randomised controlled trials have subsequently shown that direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs; ie, apixaban, dabigatran, edoxaban, and rivaroxaban) are at least as effective as VKAs in primary and secondary prevention of atrial fibrillation-related ischaemic stroke, with around half the risk of intracranial haemorrhage. However, none of these DOAC trials included patients who had experienced ischaemic stroke recently (within the first few weeks). Clinicians therefore remain uncertain regarding when to commence DOAC administration after acute ischaemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: Prospective observational studies and two small randomised trials have investigated the risks and benefits of early DOAC-administration initiation (most with a median delay of 3-5 days) in mild-to-moderate atrial fibrillation-associated ischaemic stroke. These studies reported that early DOAC treatment was associated with a low frequency of clinically symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage or surrogate haemorrhagic lesions on MRI scans, whereas later DOAC-administration initiation (ie, >7 days or >14 days after index stroke) was associated with an increased frequency of recurrent ischaemic stroke. WHERE NEXT?: Adequately powered randomised controlled trials comparing early to later oral anticoagulation with DOACs in ischaemic stroke associated with atrial fibrillation are justified to confirm the acceptable safety and efficacy of this strategy. Four such randomised controlled trials (collectively planned to include around 9000 participants) are underway, either using single cutoff timepoints for early versus late DOAC-administration initiation, or selecting DOAC-administration timing according to the severity and imaging features of the ischaemic stroke. The results of these trials should help to establish the optimal timing to initiate DOAC administration after recent ischaemic stroke and whether the timing should differ according to stroke severity. Results of these trials are expected from 2021.
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