| 1. |
- Willis, Katherine J., et al.
(författare)
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How can a knowledge of the past help to conserve the future? Biodiversity conservation and the relevance of long-term ecological studies
- 2007
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Ingår i: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8436 .- 1471-2970. ; 362:1478, s. 175-186
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper evaluates how long-term records could and should be utilized in conservation policy and practice. Traditionally, there has been an extremely limited use of long-term ecological records (greater than 50 years) in biodiversity conservation. There are a number of reasons why such records tend to be discounted, including a perception of poor scale of resolution in both time and space, and the lack of accessibility of long temporal records to non-specialists. Probably more important, however, is the perception that even if suitable temporal records are available, their roles are purely descriptive, simply demonstrating what has occurred before in Earth's history, and are of little use in the actual practice of conservation. This paper asks why this is the case and whether there is a place for the temporal record in conservation management. Key conservation initiatives related to extinctions, identification of regions of greatest diversity/threat, climate change and biological invasions are addressed. Examples of how a temporal record can add information that is of direct practicable applicability to these issues are highlighted. These include (i) the identification of species at the end of their evolutionary lifespan and therefore most at risk from extinction, (ii) the setting of realistic goals and targets for conservation ‘hotspots’, and (iii) the identification of various management tools for the maintenance/restoration of a desired biological state. For climate change conservation strategies, the use of long-term ecological records in testing the predictive power of species envelope models is highlighted, along with the potential of fossil records to examine the impact of sea-level rise. It is also argued that a long-term perspective is essential for the management of biological invasions, not least in determining when an invasive is not an invasive. The paper concludes that often inclusion of a long-term ecological perspective can provide a more scientifically defensible basis for conservation decisions than the one based only on contemporary records. The pivotal issue of this paper is not whether long-term records are of interest to conservation biologists, but how they can actually be utilized in conservation practice and policy.
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| 2. |
- Heikkinen, Risto K., et al.
(författare)
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Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change
- 2006
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Ingår i: Progress in Physical Geography. - : SAGE Publications. - 1477-0296. ; 30:6, s. 751-777
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Potential impacts of projected climate change on biodiversity are often assessed using single-species bioclimatic 'envelope' models. Such models are a special case of species distribution models in which the current geographical distribution of species is related to climatic variables so to enable projections of distributions under future climate change scenarios. This work reviews a number of critical methodological issues that may lead to uncertainty in predictions from bioclimatic modelling. Particular attention is paid to recent developments of bioclimatic modelling that address some of these issues as well as to the topics where more progress needs to be made. Developing and applying bioclimatic models in a informative way requires good understanding of a wide range of methodologies, including the choice of modelling technique, model validation, collinearity, autocorrelation, biased sampling of explanatory variables, scaling and impacts of non-climatic factors. A key challenge for future research is integrating factors such as land cover, direct CO2 effects, biotic interactions and dispersal mechanisms into species-climate models. We conclude that, although bioclimatic envelope models have a number of important advantages, they need to be applied only when users of models have a thorough understanding of their limitations and uncertainties.
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| 3. |
- Hickler, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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An ecosystem model-based estimate of changes in water availability differs from water proxies that are commonly used in species distribution models
- 2009
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Ingår i: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-8238 .- 1466-822X. ; 18:3, s. 304-313
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To assess whether the water availability measures commonly used in species distribution models might be misleading because they do not account for the hydrological effects of changes in vegetation structure and functioning. Europe. We compared different methods for estimating water availability in species distribution models with the soil water content predicted by a process-based ecosystem model. The latter also accounted for the hydrological effects of dynamic changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including potential physiological effects of increasing CO2. All proxies showed similar patterns of water availability across Europe for current climate, but when projected into the future, the changes in the simpler water availability measures showed no correlation with those projected by the more complex ecosystem model, even if CO2 effects were switched off. Results from species distribution modelling studies concerning future changes in species ranges and biodiversity should be interpreted with caution, and more process-based representations of the water balance of terrestrial ecosystems should be considered within these models.
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| 4. |
- Kühn, Ingolf, et al.
(författare)
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MACIS: Minimisation of and Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on BiodiverSity
- 2008
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Ingår i: GAIA. - 0940-5550. ; 17:4, s. 393-395
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The recently finished EU funded project MACIS reviewed observed and projected climate change impacts on biodiversity. It assessed mitigation and adaptation options. It also reviewed and developed methods to assess future impacts of climate change on biodiversity including the identification of policy options to prevent and minimise these impacts.
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| 5. |
- Rickebusch, Sophie, et al.
(författare)
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Incorporating the effects of changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on water availability in plant habitat models
- 2008
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Ingår i: Biology letters. - : The Royal Society. - 1744-9561 .- 1744-957X. ; 4:5, s. 556-559
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The direct effects of CO2 level changes on plant water availability are usually ignored in plant habitat models. We compare traditional proxies for water availability with changes in soil water (fAWC) predicted by a process-based ecosystem model, which simulates changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including CO2 physiological effects. We modelled current and future habitats of 108 European tree species using ensemble forecasting, comprising six habitat models, two model evaluation methods and two climate change scenarios. The fAWC models' projections are generally more conservative. Potential habitats shrink significantly less for boreo-alpine and alpine species. Changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on plant water availability should therefore be taken into account in plant habitat change projections.
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