| 1. |
- Bender, Frida, et al.
(författare)
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Response to the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in relation to climate sensitivity in the CMIP3 models
- 2010
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 35:5, s. 875-886
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The radiative flux perturbations and subsequent temperature responses in relation to the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are studied in the ten general circulation models incorporated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3), that include a parameterization of volcanic aerosol. Models and observations show decreases in global mean temperature of up to 0.5 K, in response to radiative perturbations of up to 10 W m−2, averaged over the tropics. The time scale representing the delay between radiative perturbation and temperature response is determined by the slow ocean response, and is estimated to be centered around 4 months in the models. Although the magniude of the temperature response to a volcanic eruption has previously been used as an indicator of equilibrium climate sensitivity in models, we find these two quantities to be only weakly correlated. This may partly be due to the fact that the size of the volcano-induced radiative perturbation varies among the models. It is found that the magnitude of the modelled radiative perturbation increases with decreasing climate sensitivity, with the exception of one outlying model. Therefore, we scale the temperature perturbation by the radiative perturbation in each model, and use the ratio between the integrated temperature perturbation and the integrated radiative perturbation as a measure of sensitivity to volcanic forcing. This ratio is found to be well correlated with the model climate sensitivity, more sensitive models having a larger ratio. Further, if this correspondence between “volcanic sensitivity” and sensitivity to CO2 forcing is a feature not only among the models, but also of the real climate system, the alleged linear relation can be used to estimate the real climate sensitivity. The observational value of the ratio signifying volcanic sensitivity is hereby estimated to correspond to an equilibrium climate sensitivity, i.e. equilibrium temperature increase due to a doubling of the CO2 concentration, between 1.7 and 4.1 K. Several sources of uncertainty reside in the method applied, and it is pointed out that additional model output, related to ocean heat storage and radiative forcing, could refine the analysis, as could reduced uncertainty in the observational record, of temperature as well as forcing.
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| 2. |
- Engström, Anders, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of meteorological factors on the correlation between aerosol optical depth and cloud fraction
- 2010
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 37, s. L18814-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aerosol optical depth has in several recent studies been found to correlate with cloud fraction. This study examines the global distribution of the total correlation between aerosol optical depth, cloud fraction and meteorological conditions using satellite observations together with atmospheric re-analysis data from the ECMWF. The results show large regional differences in the correlation between aerosol optical depth and cloud fraction, where a higher correlation is found over remote ocean. The one meteorological variable that correlates significantly with both aerosol optical depth and cloud fraction is the 10-meter wind speed. Constructing the partial correlation between aerosol optical depth and cloud fraction, with the impact from 10-meter wind speed removed, yields a significant difference compared to the total correlation. In several regions the remaining partial correlation is reduced from 0.4 to below 0.1. The results highlight the need to investigate all possible correlations between meteorological variables, cloud properties and aerosols. Citation: Engstrom, A., and A. M. L. Ekman (2010), Impact of meteorological factors on the correlation between aerosol optical depth and cloud fraction
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| 3. |
- Lohmann, U., et al.
(författare)
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Total aerosol effect : radiative forcing or radiative flux perturbation?
- 2010
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 10:7, s. 3235-3246
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcings, especially those associated with clouds, contribute to a large extent to uncertainties in the total anthropogenic forcing. The interaction of aerosols with clouds and radiation introduces feedbacks which can affect the rate of precipitation formation. In former assessments of aerosol radiative forcings, these effects have not been quantified. Also, with global aerosol-climate models simulating interactively aerosols and cloud microphysical properties, a quantification of the aerosol forcings in the traditional way is difficult to define properly. Here we argue that fast feedbacks should be included because they act quickly compared with the time scale of global warming. We show that for different forcing agents (aerosols and greenhouse gases) the radiative forcings as traditionally defined agree rather well with estimates from a method, here referred to as radiative flux perturbations (RFP), that takes these fast feedbacks and interactions into account. Based on our results, we recommend RFP as a valid option to compare different forcing agents, and to compare the effects of particular forcing agents in different models.
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| 4. |
- Sedlar, Joseph, 1981-
(författare)
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Arctic clouds - interactions with radiation and thermodynamic structure
- 2010
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Clouds play in important role in the climate system through their interaction with radiation. Globally, clouds tend to cool the Earth by reflecting solar radiation and shading the surface. Over the Arctic, clouds tend to have the opposite impact, where they instead warm the surface through the cloud greenhouse effect because the surface is generally quite reflective. The magnitude and overall effect of clouds on the surface varies significantly with the surface, cloud and thermodynamic characteristics and can have large impacts on the energy budget at the surface. Low-level central-Arctic stratus clouds interact with the thermodynamics in a manner differently than sub-tropical stratus. Observations from several Arctic observatories indicate that these clouds penetrate and persist within stable temperature inversion structures, rather than being limited to the base of the stable layer as observed in the subtropics. It is hypothesized that such interactions with the thermodynamics can impact for example the cloud phase, lifetime, and their relationship with the sub-cloud layer and surface. Analysis indicates both the thermodynamic setting and the cloud properties affect the vertical location of the cloud top relative to inversion base. Hypothetical longwave radiative impacts resulting from liquid water redistributions are identified and discussed. Clouds primarily influence the energy at the surface via interactions with radiation. Measurements from the central Arctic suggest that the transition of season from melting to freezing was largely determined by the presence, or absence, of liquid-containing clouds and the incumbent cloud longwave warming effect. The components affecting the cloud-radiative forcing are described with relation to the energy budget and the change of season. Additionally, the influence of altering cloud condensation nuclei as a mechanism for limiting cloud liquid water is shown to have strong influences on surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability. Finally, regional climate models, RCMs, are evaluated against an annual dataset to assess the ability of RCMs to represent cloud and radiation processes in the Arctic. It is shown that both inter-model and model-observation spread are rather significant. Biases in the cloud representations yield distinct biases in the radiative fluxes, and can result in significant local climate variations solely through these parameters.
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