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Future projections ...
Future projections of wind energy potentials in the arctic for the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)
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- Akperov, Mirseid (författare)
- A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, RAS
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- Eliseev, Alexey V. (författare)
- Sternberg Astronomical Institute,A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, RAS,Institute of Applied Physics, RAS
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- Rinke, Annette (författare)
- Alfred-Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven
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- Mokhov, Igor I. (författare)
- Sternberg Astronomical Institute,A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, RAS
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- Semenov, Vladimir A. (författare)
- A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, RAS
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- Dembitskaya, Mariya (författare)
- A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, RAS
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- Matthes, Heidrun (författare)
- Alfred-Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven
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- Adakudlu, Muralidhar (författare)
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute
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- Boberg, Fredrik (författare)
- Danish Meteorological Institute
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- Christensen, Jens H. (författare)
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research,Niels Bohr Institute,Danish Meteorological Institute
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- Dethloff, Klaus (författare)
- Alfred-Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven
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- Fettweis, Xavier (författare)
- University of Liège
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- Gutjahr, Oliver (författare)
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
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- Heinemann, Günther (författare)
- University of Trier
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- Koenigk, Torben (författare)
- Stockholm University,Stockholms universitet,Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU),Bolincentret för klimatforskning (tills m KTH & SMHI),Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
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- Sein, Dmitry (författare)
- Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS,Alfred-Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven
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- Laprise, René (författare)
- University Of Quebec In Montreal
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- Mottram, Ruth (författare)
- Danish Meteorological Institute
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- Nikiéma, Oumarou (författare)
- University Of Quebec In Montreal
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- Sobolowski, Stefan (författare)
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
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- Winger, Katja (författare)
- University Of Quebec In Montreal
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- Zhang, Wenxin (författare)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
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AM. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, RAS Sternberg Astronomical Institute (creator_code:org_t)
- 2023
- 2023
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Anthropocene. - 2213-3054. ; 44
- Relaterad länk:
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http://dx.doi.org/10...
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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https://lup.lub.lu.s...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- The Arctic has warmed more than twice the rate of the entire globe. To quantify possible climate change effects, we calculate wind energy potentials from a multi-model ensemble of Arctic-CORDEX. For this, we analyze future changes of wind power density (WPD) using an eleven-member multi-model ensemble. Impacts are estimated for two periods (2020-2049 and 2070-2099) of the 21st century under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). The multi-model mean reveals an increase of seasonal WPD over the Arctic in the future decades. WPD variability across a range of temporal scales is projected to increase over the Arctic. The signal amplifies by the end of 21st century. Future changes in the frequency of wind speeds at 100 m not useable for wind energy production (wind speeds below 4 m/s or above 25 m/s) has been analyzed. The RCM ensemble simulates a more frequent occurrence of 100 m non-usable wind speeds for the wind-turbines over Scandinavia and selected land areas in Alaska, northern Russia and Canada. In contrast, non-usable wind speeds decrease over large parts of Eastern Siberia and in northern Alaska. Thus, our results indicate increased potential of the Arctic for the development and production of wind energy. Bias corrected and not corrected near-surface wind speed and WPD changes have been compared with each other. It has been found that both show the same sign of future change, but differ in magnitude of these changes. The role of sea-ice retreat and vegetation expansion in the Arctic in future on near-surface wind speed variability has been also assessed. Surface roughness through sea-ice and vegetation changes may significantly impact on WPD variability in the Arctic.
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
- TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER -- Naturresursteknik -- Energisystem (hsv//swe)
- ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY -- Environmental Engineering -- Energy Systems (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- Arctic
- Wind speed
- Wind energy
- Climate change
- Sea ice
- Biogeophysical feedback
- Surface roughness
- Regional climate models
- ERA5
- CORDEX
- Arctic
- Biogeophysical feedback
- Climate change
- CORDEX
- ERA5
- Regional climate models
- Sea ice
- Surface roughness
- Wind energy
- Wind speed
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- ref (ämneskategori)
- art (ämneskategori)
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Till lärosätets databas
- Av författaren/redakt...
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Akperov, Mirseid
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Eliseev, Alexey ...
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Rinke, Annette
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Mokhov, Igor I.
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Semenov, Vladimi ...
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Dembitskaya, Mar ...
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Matthes, Heidrun
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Adakudlu, Murali ...
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Boberg, Fredrik
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Christensen, Jen ...
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Dethloff, Klaus
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Fettweis, Xavier
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Gutjahr, Oliver
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Heinemann, Günth ...
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Koenigk, Torben
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Sein, Dmitry
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Laprise, René
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Mottram, Ruth
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Nikiéma, Oumarou
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Sobolowski, Stef ...
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Winger, Katja
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Zhang, Wenxin
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- NATURVETENSKAP
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NATURVETENSKAP
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och Geovetenskap och ...
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och Klimatforskning
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- TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER
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TEKNIK OCH TEKNO ...
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och Energisystem
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Anthropocene
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