| 1. |
- Ikuta, K. S., et al.
(author)
-
Global mortality associated with 33 bacterial pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
-
In: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 400:10369, s. 2221-2248
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Reducing the burden of death due to infection is an urgent global public health priority. Previous studies have estimated the number of deaths associated with drug-resistant infections and sepsis and found that infections remain a leading cause of death globally. Understanding the global burden of common bacterial pathogens (both susceptible and resistant to antimicrobials) is essential to identify the greatest threats to public health. To our knowledge, this is the first study to present global comprehensive estimates of deaths associated with 33 bacterial pathogens across 11 major infectious syndromes. Methods We estimated deaths associated with 33 bacterial genera or species across 11 infectious syndromes in 2019 using methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, in addition to a subset of the input data described in the Global Burden of Antimicrobial Resistance 2019 study. This study included 343 million individual records or isolates covering 11 361 study-location-years. We used three modelling steps to estimate the number of deaths associated with each pathogen: deaths in which infection had a role, the fraction of deaths due to infection that are attributable to a given infectious syndrome, and the fraction of deaths due to an infectious syndrome that are attributable to a given pathogen. Estimates were produced for all ages and for males and females across 204 countries and territories in 2019. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for final estimates of deaths and infections associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens following standard GBD methods by taking the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest. Findings From an estimated 13.7 million (95% UI 10.9-17.1) infection-related deaths in 2019, there were 7.7 million deaths (5.7-10.2) associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens (both resistant and susceptible to antimicrobials) across the 11 infectious syndromes estimated in this study. We estimated deaths associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens to comprise 13.6% (10.2-18.1) of all global deaths and 56.2% (52.1-60.1) of all sepsis-related deaths in 2019. Five leading pathogens-Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa-were responsible for 54.9% (52.9-56.9) of deaths among the investigated bacteria. The deadliest infectious syndromes and pathogens varied by location and age. The age-standardised mortality rate associated with these bacterial pathogens was highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, with 230 deaths (185-285) per 100 000 population, and lowest in the high-income super-region, with 52.2 deaths (37.4-71.5) per 100 000 population. S aureus was the leading bacterial cause of death in 135 countries and was also associated with the most deaths in individuals older than 15 years, globally. Among children younger than 5 years, S pneumoniae was the pathogen associated with the most deaths. In 2019, more than 6 million deaths occurred as a result of three bacterial infectious syndromes, with lower respiratory infections and bloodstream infections each causing more than 2 million deaths and peritoneal and intra-abdominal infections causing more than 1 million deaths. Interpretation The 33 bacterial pathogens that we investigated in this study are a substantial source of health loss globally, with considerable variation in their distribution across infectious syndromes and locations. Compared with GBD Level 3 underlying causes of death, deaths associated with these bacteria would rank as the second leading cause of death globally in 2019; hence, they should be considered an urgent priority for intervention within the global health community. Strategies to address the burden of bacterial infections include infection prevention, optimised use of antibiotics, improved capacity for microbiological analysis, vaccine development, and improved and more pervasive use of available vaccines. These estimates can be used to help set priorities for vaccine need, demand, and development. Copyright (c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
|
|
| 2. |
- Fenstermacher, M.E., et al.
(author)
-
DIII-D research advancing the physics basis for optimizing the tokamak approach to fusion energy
- 2022
-
In: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 0029-5515 .- 1741-4326. ; 62:4
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- DIII-D physics research addresses critical challenges for the operation of ITER and the next generation of fusion energy devices. This is done through a focus on innovations to provide solutions for high performance long pulse operation, coupled with fundamental plasma physics understanding and model validation, to drive scenario development by integrating high performance core and boundary plasmas. Substantial increases in off-axis current drive efficiency from an innovative top launch system for EC power, and in pressure broadening for Alfven eigenmode control from a co-/counter-I p steerable off-axis neutral beam, all improve the prospects for optimization of future long pulse/steady state high performance tokamak operation. Fundamental studies into the modes that drive the evolution of the pedestal pressure profile and electron vs ion heat flux validate predictive models of pedestal recovery after ELMs. Understanding the physics mechanisms of ELM control and density pumpout by 3D magnetic perturbation fields leads to confident predictions for ITER and future devices. Validated modeling of high-Z shattered pellet injection for disruption mitigation, runaway electron dissipation, and techniques for disruption prediction and avoidance including machine learning, give confidence in handling disruptivity for future devices. For the non-nuclear phase of ITER, two actuators are identified to lower the L-H threshold power in hydrogen plasmas. With this physics understanding and suite of capabilities, a high poloidal beta optimized-core scenario with an internal transport barrier that projects nearly to Q = 10 in ITER at ∼8 MA was coupled to a detached divertor, and a near super H-mode optimized-pedestal scenario with co-I p beam injection was coupled to a radiative divertor. The hybrid core scenario was achieved directly, without the need for anomalous current diffusion, using off-axis current drive actuators. Also, a controller to assess proximity to stability limits and regulate β N in the ITER baseline scenario, based on plasma response to probing 3D fields, was demonstrated. Finally, innovative tokamak operation using a negative triangularity shape showed many attractive features for future pilot plant operation.
|
|
| 3. |
|
|
| 4. |
- Blach, S., et al.
(author)
-
Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study
- 2022
-
In: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 7:5, s. 396-415
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age =0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0.7% (95% UI 0.7-0.9), corresponding to 56.8 million (95% UI 55.2-67.8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6.8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63.6 million (61.8-75.8) infections (0.9% [0.8-1.0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12.9 million (12.5-15.4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000-765 000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56.8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination. Copyright (C) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
|
|
| 5. |
|
|
| 6. |
|
|
| 7. |
- Gottlieb, C. A., et al.
(author)
-
ATOMIUM: ALMA tracing the origins of molecules in dust forming oxygen rich M-type stars: Motivation, sample, calibration, and initial results
- 2022
-
In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 660
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This overview paper presents atomium, a Large Programme in Cycle 6 with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA). The goal of atomium is to understand the dynamics and the gas phase and dust formation chemistry in the winds of evolved asymptotic giant branch (AGB) and red supergiant (RSG) stars. A more general aim is to identify chemical processes applicable to other astrophysical environments. Seventeen oxygen-rich AGB and RSG stars spanning a range in (circum)stellar parameters and evolutionary phases were observed in a homogeneous observing strategy allowing for an unambiguous comparison. Data were obtained between 213.83 and 269.71 GHz at high (0.025-0.050), medium (0.13-0.24), and low (~1) angular resolution. The sensitivity per ~1.3 km s-1 channel was 1.5-5 mJy beam-1, and the line-free channels were used to image the millimetre wave continuum. Our primary molecules for studying the gas dynamics and dust formation are CO, SiO, AlO, AlOH, TiO, TiO2, and HCN; secondary molecules include SO, SO2, SiS, CS, H2O, and NaCl. The scientific motivation, survey design, sample properties, data reduction, and an overview of the data products are described. In addition, we highlight one scientific result - the wind kinematics of the atomium sources. Our analysis suggests that the atomium sources often have a slow wind acceleration, and a fraction of the gas reaches a velocity which can be up to a factor of two times larger than previously reported terminal velocities assuming isotropic expansion. Moreover, the wind kinematic profiles establish that the radial velocity described by the momentum equation for a spherical wind structure cannot capture the complexity of the velocity field. In fifteen sources, some molecular transitions other than 12CO v = 0 J = 2 - 1 reach a higher outflow velocity, with a spatial emission zone that is often greater than 30 stellar radii, but much less than the extent of CO. We propose that a binary interaction with a (sub)stellar companion may (partly) explain the non-monotonic behaviour of the projected velocity field. The atomium data hence provide a crucial benchmark for the wind dynamics of evolved stars in single and binary star models.
|
|
| 8. |
- Van Bavel, Jay J., et al.
(author)
-
National identity predicts public health support during a global pandemic
- 2022
-
In: Nature Communications. - : Nature Portfolio. - 2041-1723. ; 13:1
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Understanding collective behaviour is an important aspect of managing the pandemic response. Here the authors show in a large global study that participants that reported identifying more strongly with their nation reported greater engagement in public health behaviours and support for public health policies in the context of the pandemic. Changing collective behaviour and supporting non-pharmaceutical interventions is an important component in mitigating virus transmission during a pandemic. In a large international collaboration (Study 1, N = 49,968 across 67 countries), we investigated self-reported factors associated with public health behaviours (e.g., spatial distancing and stricter hygiene) and endorsed public policy interventions (e.g., closing bars and restaurants) during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic (April-May 2020). Respondents who reported identifying more strongly with their nation consistently reported greater engagement in public health behaviours and support for public health policies. Results were similar for representative and non-representative national samples. Study 2 (N = 42 countries) conceptually replicated the central finding using aggregate indices of national identity (obtained using the World Values Survey) and a measure of actual behaviour change during the pandemic (obtained from Google mobility reports). Higher levels of national identification prior to the pandemic predicted lower mobility during the early stage of the pandemic (r = -0.40). We discuss the potential implications of links between national identity, leadership, and public health for managing COVID-19 and future pandemics.
|
|
| 9. |
- Waldschlager, K., et al.
(author)
-
Learning from natural sediments to tackle microplastics challenges: A multidisciplinary perspective
- 2022
-
In: Earth-Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0012-8252. ; 228
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Although the study of microplastics in the aquatic environment incorporates a diversity of research fields, it is still in its infancy in many aspects while comparable topics have been studied in other disciplines for decades. In particular, extensive research in sedimentology can provide valuable insights to guide future microplastics research. To advance our understanding of the comparability of natural sediments with microplastics, we take an interdisciplinary look at the existing literature describing particle properties, transport processes, sampling techniques and ecotoxicology. Based on our analysis, we define seven research goals that are essential to improve our understanding of microplastics and can be tackled by learning from natural sediment research, and identify relevant tasks to achieve each goal. These goals address (1) the description of microplastic particles, (2) the
|
|
| 10. |
- Caretta, Martina Angela, et al.
(author)
-
Water
- 2022
-
In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability : Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
-
Book chapter (other academic/artistic)
|
|
