| 1. |
- Adolfson, Malin, et al.
(författare)
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Bayesian analysis of DSGE models : Some comments
- 2007
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Ingår i: Econometric Reviews. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0747-4938 .- 1532-4168. ; 26:2-4, s. 173-185
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sungbae An and Frank Schorfheide have provided an excellent review of the main elements of Bayesian inference in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. Bayesian methods have, for reasons clearly outlined in the paper a very natural role to flay in DSGE analysis, and the appeal of the Bayesian paradigm is indeed strongly evidenced by the flood of empirical applications in the area over the last couple of years. We expect their paper to be the natural starting point for applied economists interested in learning about Bayesian techniques for analyzing DSGE models, and as such the paper is likely to have a strong influence on what will be considered best practice for estimating DSGE models. The authors have, for good reasons, chosen a stylized six-equation model to present the methodology. We shall use here the large-scale model in Adolfson et al. (2005), henceforth ALLV, to illustrate a few econometric problems which we have found to be especially important as the size of the model increases. The model in ALLV is an open economy extension of the closed economy model in Christiano et al. (2005). It consists of 25 log-linearized equations, which can be written as a state space representation With 60 state variables, many of them unobserved. Fifteen observed unfiltered time series are used to estimate 51 structural parameters. An additional complication compared to the model in An and Schorfheide's paper is that some of the coefficients in the measurement equation are non-linear functions of the structural parameters. The model is currently the main vehicle for policy analysis at Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) and similar models are being developed in many other policy institutions, which testifies to the model's practical relevance. The version considered here is estimated on Euro area data over the period 1980Q1-2002Q4. We refer to ALLV for details.
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| 2. |
- Adolfson, Malin, et al.
(författare)
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Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through
- 2007
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Ingår i: Journal of International Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1996 .- 1873-0353. ; 72:2, s. 481-511
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for an open economy, and estimate it on Euro area data using Bayesian estimation techniques. The model incorporates several open economy features, as well as a number of nominal and real frictions that have proven to be important for the empirical fit of closed economy models. The paper offers: i) a theoretical development of the standard DSGE model into an open economy setting, ii) Bayesian estimation of the model, including assessments of the relative importance of various shocks and frictions for explaining the dynamic development of an open economy, and iii) an evaluation of the model's empirical properties using standard validation methods.
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| 3. |
- Adolfson, Malin, et al.
(författare)
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Empirical properties of closed- and open-economy DSGE models of the Euro area
- 2008
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Ingår i: Macroeconomic Dynamics. - 1365-1005 .- 1469-8056. ; 12, s. 2-19
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we compare the empirical proper-ties of closed- and open-economy DSGE models estimated on Euro area data. The comparison is made along several dimensions; we examine the models in terms of their marginal likelihoods, forecasting performance, variance decompositions, and their transmission mechanisms of monetary policy.
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| 4. |
- Adolfson, Malin, et al.
(författare)
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Forecasting performance of an open economy DSGE model
- 2007
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Ingår i: Econometric Reviews. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0747-4938 .- 1532-4168. ; 26:04-feb, s. 289-328
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper analyzes the forecasting performance of an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, estimated with Bayesian methods, for the Euro area during 1994Q1-2002Q4. We compare the DSGE model and a few variants of this model to various reduced form forecasting models such as vector autoregressions (VARs) and vector error correction models (VECM), estimated both by maximum likelihood and, two different Bayesian approaches, and traditional benchmark models, e.g., the random. walk. The accuracy of point forecasts, interval forecasts and the predictive distribution as a whole are assessed in, an out-of-sample rolling event evaluation using several univariate and multivariate measures. The results show that the open economy DSGE model compares well with more empirical models and thus that the tension between, rigor and fit in older generations of DSGE models is no longer present. We also critically examine the role of Bayesian model probabilities and other frequently used low-dimensional summaries, e.g., the log determinant statistic, as measures of overall forecasting performance.
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| 5. |
- Carlsson, Jane, 1946, et al.
(författare)
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Fysioterapi vid huvudvärk hos barn och ungdomar
- 2009
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Ingår i: Migrän och spänningshuvudvärk hos barn och tonåringar, Bo Larsson (red). - Lund : Studentlitteratur. - 9789144048277 ; , s. 113-123
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Återkommande huvudvärk är ett av de vanligaste hälsoproblemen bland barn och tonåringar. Tecken finns också som tyder på att ofta förekommande huvudvärk under senare år har ökat i förekomst i dessa åldersgrupper. Den är också kopplad till ökad förekomst av andra kroppsliga besvär och psykiska problem, nedsatt funktion i vardagen och sämre livskvalitet. Prognosen på såväl kort som lång sikt är också osäker för dessa individer. De vanligaste formerna av återkommande huvudvärk bland barn och ungdom, som inte beror på annan bakomliggande kroppslig eller psykisk sjukdom, är migrän och spänningshuvudvärk. Under senare år har kunskapen om förekomst, prognos, orsaker till sådan huvudvärk och psykosociala faktorer avsevärt ökat liksom om vilken behandling med läkemedel, psykologiska eller fysioterapeutiska metoder som kan minska besvären. Föreliggande bok är en starkt omarbetad upplaga av den första som utgavs till smärtåret 1998. Avsikten har varit att uppdatera innehållet i ljuset av senare års forskning och starka kunskapsutveckling. Då återkommande huvudvärk hos barn och ungdom är ett negligerat och starkt underbehandlat hälsoproblem är det en förhoppning att boken kan bidra till att fler får effektiv hjälp av det som finns att erbjuda i hälsovården. Förhoppningsvis ger boken också ett bättre underlag i valet av lämpliga bedömings- och behandlingsmetoder för dem som möter barn och ungdom med återkommande huvudvärk. Boken riktar sig främst till personal inom hälso- och sjukvård, men vänder sig också till tonåringar med återkommande huvudvärk, föräldrar, lärare och andra som vill öka sin kunskap och förståelse om detta angelägna hälsoproblem.
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| 6. |
- Dahlöf, Carl, 1947, et al.
(författare)
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Huvudvärk : Fakta, frågor och svar
- 2005
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Bok (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Boken beskriver hur man diagnostiserar och behandlar huvudvärk samt vad de olika tillstånden kan bero på. Dessutom redovisas kända alternativa behandlingsformer, allt från akupunktur till huskurer. Under de senaste åren har närmare 100 brev med frågor, intressanta funderingar och tips kommit in till författarna från personer runt om i Sverige med olika sorters huvudvärk. Dessa brev redovisas, besvaras och kommenteras i respektive kapitel. Boken är avsedd för vårdpersonal och patienter.
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| 9. |
- Hedenrud, Tove, et al.
(författare)
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Beliefs about medicines and adherence among Swedish migraineurs
- 2008
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Ingår i: The Annals of Pharmacotherapy. - 1060-0280 .- 1542-6270. ; 42:1, s. 39-45
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The problem of low adherence to drug therapy is as prevalent in migraine as in any other disorder, with important consequences for the patient, such as impaired quality of life and absence from work. Beliefs about medicines have been identified as one of the most significant factors for adherence.OBJECTIVE: To analyze whether beliefs about medicines and medication-related factors are associated with adherence to prophylactic drug therapy among migraineurs at a Swedish tertiary care clinic.METHODS: A questionnaire was distributed to migraineurs visiting a tertiary care clinic in Sweden. All participants had recently been prescribed prophylactic medicine. The questionnaire was comprised of background questions, questions about disease characteristics, perceived effects, and adverse effects of migraine medications used, the Beliefs about Medicines questionnaire, and the Medication Adherence Report Scale. Medication-related variables, collected from patients' records with consent, were also included. Logistic regression analysis was performed to analyze the association between beliefs about medicines, medication-related variables, and adherence to prophylactic drugs.RESULTS: Of the 174 participants in the study, 64% were considered to be adherent to their prescribed prophylactic medicine. Users of beta-blockers were significantly more adherent compared with patients using other drugs (eg, tricyclic antidepressants [TCAs] or antiepileptics); the reverse was true for patients taking TCAs. Respondents with the lowest level of education (CONCLUSIONS: About one-third of the migraineurs did not adhere to their prophylactic drugs. Beliefs about medicines and medication-related factors could not predict nonadherence. We recommend further research on medication-related variables in relation to adherence among migraineurs.
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| 10. |
- Hedenrud, Tove, 1967, et al.
(författare)
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Beliefs about medicines and adherence among Swedish migraineurs.
- 2007
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Ingår i: The 13th Congress of the International Headache Society, Stockholm, juni 2007..
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective The aim was to analyze whether beliefs about medicines are associated with adherence to prophylactic medication among Swedish migraineurs. Methods A questionnaire was distributed consecutively to migraineurs attending a tertiary clinic. All participants were prescribed prophylactic medication. The questionnaire comprised e.g. background questions, beliefs about medicines (BMQ), and self-reported adherence (MARS). The General BMQ comprises three subparts: General Harm, General Overuse, and General Benefit. The specific part of the BMQ has two subparts: Specific Necessity and Specific Concerns. For the BMQ Specific, a necessity–concerns differential was calculated for each participant. A logistic regression analysis was performed to analyze the association between beliefs about medicines and adherence to prophylactic medication. Results Of the 175 participants, 15% were male and more than half of the participants were aged 45 years and over. Fifty percent had a university degree. Sixty-four percent were considered adherent. There was no significant difference in adherence between gender, age groups, or by educational level. Respondents with only compulsory school were less concerned about the long-term effects of medications and had a higher necessity–concern differential. In the logistic regression analysis, no variable was significantly associated with adherence. Conclusions The present study showed no association between beliefs about medication and adherence. We recommend that lack of adherence to migraine prophylactic drugs should be considered more often, looked for, and addressed in order to identify sufferers with an unnecessarily high migraine-associated disability. This assumes greater attention to the problem amongst both physicians and researchers in all countries.
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