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- Schumacher, A. E., et al.
(författare)
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Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- 2024
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 403:10440, s. 1989-2056
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 6. |
- Santoro, V., et al.
(författare)
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HighNESS conceptual design report: Volume II. the NNBAR experiment.
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Neutron Research. - 1023-8166 .- 1477-2655. ; 25:3-4, s. 315-406
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A key aim of the HighNESS project for the European Spallation Source is to enable cutting-edge particle physics experiments. This volume presents a conceptual design report for the NNBAR experiment. NNBAR would exploit a new cold lower moderator to make the first search in over thirty years for free neutrons converting to anti-neutrons. The observation of such a baryon-number-violating signature would be of fundamental significance and tackle open questions in modern physics, including the origin of the matter-antimatter asymmetry. This report shows the design of the beamline, supermirror focusing system, magnetic and radiation shielding, and anti-neutron detector necessary for the experiment. A range of simulation programs are employed to quantify the performance of the experiment and show how background can be suppressed. For a search with full background suppression, a sensitivity improvement of three orders of magnitude is expected, as compared with the previous search. Civil engineering studies for the NNBAR beamline are also shown, as is a costing model for the experiment.
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| 7. |
- Santoro, V., et al.
(författare)
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HighNESS conceptual design report: Volume I
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Neutron Research. - 1023-8166 .- 1477-2655. ; 25:3-4, s. 85-314
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The European Spallation Source, currently under construction in Lund, Sweden, is a multidisciplinary international laboratory. Once completed to full specifications, it will operate the world’s most powerful pulsed neutron source. Supported by a 3 million Euro Research and Innovation Action within the EU Horizon 2020 program, a design study (HighNESS) has been completed to develop a second neutron source located below the spallation target. Compared to the first source, designed for high cold and thermal brightness, the new source has been optimized to deliver higher intensity, and a shift to longer wavelengths in the spectral regions of cold (CN, 2–20 Å), very cold (VCN, 10–120 Å), and ultracold (UCN, >500 Å) neutrons. The second source comprises a large liquid deuterium moderator designed to produce CN and support secondary VCN and UCN sources. Various options have been explored in the proposed designs, aiming for world-leading performance in neutronics. These designs will enable the development of several new instrument concepts and facilitate the implementation of a high-sensitivity neutron-antineutron oscillation experiment (NNBAR). This document serves as the Conceptual Design Report for the HighNESS project, representing its final deliverable.
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| 8. |
- Salamania, Janella, 1992-, et al.
(författare)
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Elucidating dislocation core structures in titanium nitride through high-resolution imaging and atomistic simulations
- 2022
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Ingår i: Materials & design. - : Elsevier. - 0264-1275 .- 1873-4197. ; 224
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Although titanium nitride (TiN) is among the most extensively studied and thoroughly characterizedthin-film ceramic materials, detailed knowledge of relevant dislocation core structures is lacking. Byhigh-resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) of epitaxial single crystal (001)-oriented TiN films, we identify different dislocation types and their core structures. These include, besidesthe expected primary a/2{110}h110i dislocation, Shockley partial dislocations a/6{111}h112i and sessileLomer edge dislocations a/2{100}h011i. Density-functional theory and classical interatomic potentialsimulations complement STEM observations by recovering the atomic structure of the different disloca-tion types, estimating Peierls stresses, and providing insights on the chemical bonding nature at the core.The generated models of the dislocation cores suggest locally enhanced metal–metal bonding, weakenedTi-N bonds, and N vacancy-pinning that effectively reduces the mobilities of {110}h110i and {111}h112idislocations. Our findings underscore that the presence of different dislocation types and their effects onchemical bonding should be considered in the design and interpretations of nanoscale and macroscopicproperties of TiN.
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| 9. |
- Calamba, Katherine, et al.
(författare)
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Effect of nitrogen vacancies on the growth, dislocation structure, and decomposition of single crystal epitaxial (Ti1-xAlx)N-y thin films
- 2021
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Ingår i: Acta Materialia. - : Elsevier. - 1359-6454 .- 1873-2453. ; 203
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The effect of varying nitrogen vacancies on the growth, microstructure, spinodal decomposition and hardness values of predominantly single crystal cubic phase c-(Ti1-xAlx)N-y films was investigated. Epitaxial c-(Ti1-xAlx)N-y films with y = 0.67, 0.79, and 0.92 were grown on MgO(001) and MgO(111) substrates by magnetron sputter deposition. High N vacancy c-(Ti1-xAlx)N-0.67 films deposited on MgO(111) contained coherently oriented w-(0001) structures while segregated conical structures were observed on the films grown on MgO(001). High resolution STEM images revealed that the N-deficient growth conditions induced segregation with small compositional fluctuations that increase with the number of N vacancies. Similarly, strain map analysis of the epitaxial c-(Ti1-xAlx)N-y (001) and (111) films show fluctuations in strain concentration that scales with the number of N vacancies and increases during annealing. The spinodal decomposition coarsening rate of the epitaxial c-(Ti1-xAlx)N-y films was observed to increase with decreasing N vacancies. Nanoindentation showed decreasing trends in hardness of the as-deposited films as the N vacancies increase. Isothermal post-anneal at 1100 degrees C in vacuum for 120 min revealed a continuation in the increase in hardness for the film with the largest number of N vacancies (y = 0.67) while the hardness decreased for the films with y = 0.79 and 0.92. These results suggest that nitrogen-deficient depositions of c-(Ti1-xAlx)N-y films help to promote a self-organized phase segregation, while higher N vacancies generally increase the coherency strain which delays the coarsening process and can influence the hardness at high temperatures.
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| 10. |
- Salamania, Janella, 1992-, et al.
(författare)
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High-resolution STEM investigation of the role of dislocations during decomposition of Ti1-xAlxNy
- 2023
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Ingår i: Scripta Materialia. - : Elsevier. - 1359-6462 .- 1872-8456. ; 229
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The defect structures forming during high-temperature decomposition of Ti1-xAlxNy films were investigated through high-resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy. After annealing to 950 °C, misfit edge dislocations a/6〈112〉{111} partial dislocations permeate the interface between TiN-rich and AlN-rich domains to accommodate lattice misfits during spinodal decomposition. The stacking fault energy associated with the partial dislocations decreases with increasing Al content, which facilitates the coherent cubic to wurtzite structure transition of AlN-rich domains. The wurtzite AlN-rich structure is recovered when every third cubic {111} plane is shifted by along the [211] direction. After annealing to 1100 °C, a temperature where coarsening dominates the microstructure evolution, we observe intersections of stacking faults, which form sessile locks at the interface of the TiN- and AlN-rich domains. These observed defect structures facilitate the formation of semicoherent interfaces and contribute to hardening in Ti1-xAlxNy.
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