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- Saevarsdottir, KS, et al.
(författare)
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Illness severity and risk of mental morbidities among patients recovering from COVID-19: a cross-sectional study in the Icelandic population
- 2021
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Ingår i: BMJ open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 11:7, s. e049967-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To test if patients recovering from COVID-19 are at increased risk of mental morbidities and to what extent such risk is exacerbated by illness severity.DesignPopulation-based cross-sectional study.SettingIceland.ParticipantsA total of 22 861 individuals were recruited through invitations to existing nationwide cohorts and a social media campaign from 24 April to 22 July 2020, of which 373 were patients recovering from COVID-19.Main outcome measuresSymptoms of depression (Patient Health Questionnaire), anxiety (General Anxiety Disorder Scale) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD; modified Primary Care PTSD Screen for DSM-5) above screening thresholds. Adjusting for multiple covariates and comorbidities, multivariable Poisson regression was used to assess the association between COVID-19 severity and mental morbidities.ResultsCompared with individuals without a diagnosis of COVID-19, patients recovering from COVID-19 had increased risk of depression (22.1% vs 16.2%; adjusted relative risk (aRR) 1.48, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.82) and PTSD (19.5% vs 15.6%; aRR 1.38, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.75) but not anxiety (13.1% vs 11.3%; aRR 1.24, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.64). Elevated relative risks were limited to patients recovering from COVID-19 that were 40 years or older and were particularly high among individuals with university education. Among patients recovering from COVID-19, symptoms of depression were particularly common among those in the highest, compared with the lowest tertile of influenza-like symptom burden (47.1% vs 5.8%; aRR 6.42, 95% CI 2.77 to 14.87), among patients confined to bed for 7 days or longer compared with those never confined to bed (33.3% vs 10.9%; aRR 3.67, 95% CI 1.97 to 6.86) and among patients hospitalised for COVID-19 compared with those never admitted to hospital (48.1% vs 19.9%; aRR 2.72, 95% CI 1.67 to 4.44).ConclusionsSevere disease course is associated with increased risk of depression and PTSD among patients recovering from COVID-19.
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| 2. |
- Bergsteinsson, Hjörleifur G., et al.
(författare)
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Heat load forecasting using adaptive temporal hierarchies
- 2021
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Ingår i: Applied Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0306-2619. ; 292
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Heat load forecasts are crucial for energy operators in order to optimize the energy production at district heating plants for the coming hours. Furthermore, forecasts of heat load are needed for optimized control of the district heating network since a lower temperature reduces the heat loss, but the required heat supply at the end-users puts a lower limit on the temperature level. Consequently, improving the accuracy of heat load forecasts leads to savings and reduced heat loss by enabling improved control of the network and an optimized production schedule at the plant. This paper proposes the use of temporal hierarchies to enhance the accuracy of heat load forecasts in district heating. Usually, forecasts are only made at the temporal aggregation level that is the most important for the system. However, forecasts for multiple aggregation levels can be reconciled and lead to more accurate forecasts at essentially all aggregation levels. Here it is important that the auto- and cross-covariance between forecast errors at the different aggregation levels are taken into account. This paper suggests a novel framework using temporal hierarchies and adaptive estimation to improve heat load forecast accuracy by optimally combining forecasts from multiple aggregation levels using a reconciliation process. The weights for the reconciliation are computed using an adaptively estimated covariance matrix with a full structure, enabling the process to share time-varying information both within and between aggregation levels. The case study shows that the proposed framework improves the heat load forecast accuracy by 15% compared to commercial state-of-the-art operational forecasts.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Magnusson, E., et al.
(författare)
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Development of a subglacial lake monitored with radio-echo sounding: case study from the eastern Skafta cauldron in the Vatnajokull ice cap, Iceland
- 2021
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Ingår i: Cryosphere. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1994-0416. ; 15:8, s. 3731-3749
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present repeated radio-echo sounding (RES, 5 MHz) on a profile grid over the eastern Skafta cauldron (ESC) in Vatnajokull ice cap, Iceland. The ESC is a similar to 3 km wide and 50-150 m deep ice cauldron created and maintained by subglacial geothermal activity of similar to 1GW. Beneath the cauldron and 200-400 m thick ice, water accumulates in a subglacial lake and is released semi-regularly in jokulhlaups. The RES record consists of annual surveys conducted at the beginning of every summer during the period 2014-2020. Comparison of the RES surveys reveals variable lake area (0.5-4.1 km(2)) and enables traced reflections from the lake roof to be distinguished from bedrock reflections. This allows construction of a digital elevation model (DEM) of the bedrock in the area, further constrained by two borehole measurements at the cauldron centre. It also allows creation of lake thickness maps and an estimate of lake volume at the time of each survey, which we compare with lowering patterns and released water volumes obtained from pre- and post-jokulhlaup surface DEMs. The estimated lake volume was 250 GL (gigalitres = 10(6) m(3)) in June 2015, but 320 +/- 20 GL drained from the ESC in October 2015. In June 2018, RES profiles revealed a lake volume of 185 GL, while 220 +/- 30 GL were released in a jokulhlaup in August 2018. Considering the water accumulation over the periods between RES surveys and jokulhlaups, this indicates 10 %-20% uncertainty in the RES-derived volumes at times when significant jokulhlaups may be expected.
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