| 1. |
- Barretto, Agop, et al.
(författare)
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Agricultural intensification in Brazil and its effects on land-use patterns: an analysis of the 1975-2006 period
- 2013
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1365-2486 .- 1354-1013. ; 19:6, s. 1804-1815
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Does agricultural intensification reduce the area used for agricultural production in Brazil? Census and other data for time periods 19751996 and 19962006 were processed and analyzed using Geographic Information System and statistical tools to investigate whether and if so, how, changes in yield and stocking rate coincide with changes in cropland and pasture area. Complementary medium-resolution data on total farmland area changes were used in a spatially explicit assessment of the land-use transitions that occurred in Brazil during 19602006. The analyses show that in agriculturally consolidated areas (mainly southern and southeastern Brazil), land-use intensification (both on cropland and pastures) coincided with either contraction of both cropland and pasture areas, or cropland expansion at the expense of pastures, both cases resulting in farmland stability or contraction. In contrast, in agricultural frontier areas (i.e., the deforestation zones in central and northern Brazil), land-use intensification coincided with expansion of agricultural lands. These observations provide support for the thesis that (i) technological improvements create incentives for expansion in agricultural frontier areas; and (ii) farmers are likely to reduce their managed acreage only if land becomes a scarce resource. The spatially explicit examination of land-use transitions since 1960 reveals an expansion and gradual movement of the agricultural frontier toward the interior (center-western Cerrado) of Brazil. It also indicates a possible initiation of a reversed trend in line with the forest transition theory, i.e., agricultural contraction and recurring forests in marginally suitable areas in southeastern Brazil, mainly within the Atlantic Forest biome. The significant reduction in deforestation that has taken place in recent years, despite rising food commodity prices, indicates that policies put in place to curb conversion of native vegetation to agriculture land might be effective. This can improve the prospects for protecting native vegetation by investing in agricultural intensification.
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| 2. |
- Cederberg, Christel, 1959, et al.
(författare)
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Trends in greenhouse gas emissions from consumption and production of animal food products - implications for long-term climate targets
- 2013
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Ingår i: Animal. - 1751-7311 .- 1751-732X. ; 7:2, s. 330-340
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To analyse trends in greenhouse (GHG) emissions from production and consumption of animal products in Sweden, life-cycle emissions were calculated for the average production of pork, chicken meat, beef, dairy and eggs in 1990 and 2005. The calculated average emissions were used together with food consumption statistics and literature data on imported products to estimate trends in per capita emissions from animal food consumption. Total life cycle emissions from the Swedish livestock production were around 8.5 Mt carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) in 1990 and emissions decreased to 7.3 Mt CO2e in 2005 (14% reduction). Around two-thirds of the emission cut was explained by more efficient production (less GHG emission per product unit) and one third was due to a reduced animal production. The average GHG emissions per product unit until the farm-gate were reduced by 20% for dairy, 15% for pork and 23% for chicken meat, unchanged for eggs and increased by 10% for beef. A larger share of the average beef was produced from suckler cows in cow-calf systems in 2005 due to the decreasing dairy cow herd, which explains the increased emissions for the average beef in 2005. The overall emissions cuts from the livestock sector were a result of several measures taken in farm production, for example increased dairy yield per cow, lowered use of synthetic nitrogen fertilisers in grasslands, reduced losses of ammonia from manure and a switch to biofuels for heating in chicken houses.In contrast to production, total GHG emissions from the Swedish consumption of animal products increased by around 22% between 1990 and 2005. This was explained by strong growth in meat consumption based mainly on imports, where growth in beef consumption especially was responsible for most emission increase over the 15-year period. Swedish GHG emissions caused by consumption of animal products reached around 1.1 tonnes CO2e per capita in 2005.The emission cuts necessary for meeting a global temperature-increase target of 2 degrees might imply a severe constraint on the long-term global consumption of animal food. Due to the relatively limited potential for reducing food-related emissions by higher productivity and technological means, structural changes in food consumption towards less emission intensive food might be required for meeting the 2-degree target.
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| 3. |
- Dees, M., et al.
(författare)
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Status and Future of Biomass Assessment for Energetic Use in Europe
- 2012
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Ingår i: 20th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition. - 9788889407547 ; , s. 23-24
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Results from biomass potential assessments vary considerably, both on global and European level. On the other hand reliable figures on biomass potentials are an important basis for energy policy and for strategies that aim at an increase of use of biomass for energy both on EU-Level as well as e. g. on national level in the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) by the 27 member states. This paper is based on the findings of two projects, BEE and CEUBIOM. It presents an overview of the findings of these projects and includes an analysis of biomass potential aspects within the NREAPs. It presents how, based on an analysis of the status quo of potential studies, the projects developed proposals for a harmonisation of the methodologies and it presents the key areas they identified for future work in the field.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Egeskog, Andrea, 1981, et al.
(författare)
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Greenhouse gas balances and land use changes associated with the planned expansion (to 2020) of the sugarcane ethanol industry in Sao Paulo, Brazil
- 2014
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Ingår i: Biomass and Bioenergy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1873-2909 .- 0961-9534. ; 63, s. 280-290
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Brazil is expected to increase its sugarcane production in the coming years. Almost 60% of the Brazilian sugarcane production in 2012 was situated in the state of São Paulo, where production is expected to increase further. This paper reports estimated direct land use changes and greenhouse gas balances (including soil carbon stock changes) associated with expanding production of sugarcane-based ethanol in São Paulo state. Geographic information about the location of existing and planned sugarcane mills and existing land use in these locations is used. Almost all of the sugarcane expansion in 2004-2008 took place on roughly equal shares of cropland or pasture land. The locations of the planned mills indicate that most new sugarcane might be planted on cropland unless the sugarcane is sourced from longer distances than has typically been the case. These results confirm that sugarcane expansion does not cause much direct deforestation but contrast with the view that direct competition for prime cropland is generally avoided since sugarcane is mostly planted on extensively used pasture lands. Analyses of greenhouse gas emissions and savings support the view that expansion of sugarcane ethanol in Brazil will likely bring about substantial savings - unless the expansion causes significant emissions associated with indirect land use change. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Hedenus, Fredrik, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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Future food consumption and climate change - are dietary shifts required?
- 2010
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Ingår i: Stockholm Futures Conference. Our future in the making.
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The FAO predicts a major increase in global animal food consumption to 2050. In this paper we investigate the climate effect of such a dietary shift. At present, food is responsible for 25-30% of the global greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast to the energy sector, the main way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from food production seems to be through general productivity improvements, rather than from specific technological and agronomic mitigation measures. In this paper we estimate the resulting methane and nitrous oxide emissions from global agriculture in 2050, in two scenarios, one with moderate productivity improvement and one with rapid productivity improvements. We compare the emissions to emissions levels compatible with the climate target of keeping the global average warming below 2 degree above the pre-industrial level. Our results suggest that under some circumstances dietary shift will be required to meet a 2 degree target.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Hedenus, Fredrik, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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The importance of reduced meat and dairy consumption for meeting stringent climate change targets
- 2014
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-1480 .- 0165-0009. ; 124:1-2, s. 79-91
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For agriculture, there are three major options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: 1) productivity improvements, particularly in the livestock sector; 2) dedicated technical mitigation measures; and 3) human dietary changes. The aim of the paper is to estimate long-term agricultural GHG emissions, under different mitigation scenarios, and to relate them to the emissions space compatible with the 2°C temperature target. Our estimates include emissions up to 2070 from agricultural soils, manure management, enteric fermentation and paddy rice fields, and are based on IPCC Tier 2 methodology. We find that baseline agricultural CO2-equivalent emissions (using Global Warming Potentials with a 100 year time horizon) will be approximately 13 Gton CO(2)eq/year in 2070, compared to 7.1 Gton CO(2)eq/year 2000. However, if faster growth in livestock productivity is combined with dedicated technical mitigation measures, emissions may be kept to 7.7 Gton CO(2)eq/year in 2070. If structural changes in human diets are included, emissions may be reduced further, to 3-5 Gton CO(2)eq/year in 2070. The total annual emissions for meeting the 2°C target with a chance above 50 % is in the order of 13 Gton CO(2)eq/year or less in 2070, for all sectors combined. We conclude that reduced ruminant meat and dairy consumption will be indispensable for reaching the 2°C target with a high probability, unless unprecedented advances in technology take place.
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