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- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 2. |
- Park, Hyeonjin, et al.
(författare)
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pH-Modulated Nanoarchitectonics for Enhancement of Multivalency-Induced Vesicle Shape Deformation at Receptor-Presenting Lipid Membrane Interfaces
- 2023
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Ingår i: Langmuir. - 1520-5827 .- 0743-7463. ; 39:23, s. 8297-8305
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Multivalent ligand-receptor interactions betweenreceptor-presentinglipid membranes and ligand-modified biological and biomimetic nanoparticlesinfluence cellular entry and fusion processes. Environmental pH changescan drive these membrane-related interactions by affecting membranenanomechanical properties. Quantitatively, however, the correspondingeffects on high-curvature, sub-100 nm lipid vesicles are scarcelyunderstood, especially in the multivalent binding context. Herein,we employed the label-free localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR)sensing technique to track the multivalent attachment kinetics, shapedeformation, and surface coverage of biotin ligand-functionalized,zwitterionic lipid vesicles with different ligand densities on a streptavidinreceptor-coated supported lipid bilayer under varying pH conditions(4.5, 6, 7.5). Our results demonstrate that more extensive multivalentinteractions caused greater vesicle shape deformation across the testedpH conditions, which affected vesicle surface packing as well. Notably,there were also pH-specific differences, i.e., a higher degree ofvesicle shape deformation was triggered at a lower multivalent bindingenergy in pH 4.5 than in pH 6 and 7.5 conditions. These findings supportthat the nanomechanical properties of high-curvature lipid membranes,especially the membrane bending energy and the corresponding responsivenessto multivalent binding interactions, are sensitive to solution pH,and indicate that multivalency-induced vesicle shape deformation occursslightly more readily in acidic pH conditions relevant to biologicalenvironments.
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