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- Belgrano, Andrea
(författare)
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Working Group on Integrated Assessments of the North Sea (WGINOSE)
- 2022
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Rapport (refereegranskat)abstract
- The objective of this study was to conduct an impact risk assessment of Greater North Sea Ecoregion activities and pressures. Specifically, to conduct a revision of the EO wire-diagram of the Greater North Sea based upon ICES published guidelines for the conduct of EOs ICES Technical Guidelines (2021) and to identify the top-ranked sectors and pressures contributing the most to the overall impact risk in the North Sea. A group of 21 experts familiar with different elements of the North Sea assessed the links between a total of 16 sectors, 8 pressures and 6 ecological characteristics in line with the ICES published technical guidance. A total of 309 separate sector/pressure/ecological characteristics combinations were evaluated to determine their impact risk (e.g. as determined by the product of the spatial overlap, frequency of exposure and degree of impact). An analysis of the relative contribution of the sector and pressures scores to the overall impact risk revealed the largest contribution to the overall impact risk was from fishing (60%), followed by shipping (16%), whereas species extraction, marine litter and contaminants are considered to be the primary pressures impacting the North Sea ecosystem.
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- Belgrano, Andrea, et al.
(författare)
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Workshop on Ecosystem Based Fisheries Advice for the Baltic (WKEBFAB; outputs from 2021 meeting)
- 2022
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The main aim of the meeting was to organise a meeting with members of the ICES/HELCOM Working Group on Integrated Assessments of the Baltic Sea (WGIAB) and the ICES Baltic Fisheries Assessment working group (WGBFAS), as well as invited experts on ecosystem-based fisheries management from other sea regions, to propose a roadmap towards providing ecosystem based fisheries advice (EBFAdvice) for the Baltic Sea. The specific objective was to conclude on ecosystem aspects that could be added to the fisheries advice provided by ICES. In order to achieve this, the WK reviewed working international EBF approaches, reviewed ecosystem indicators relevant for EBFAdvice in the Baltic and evaluated how existing ecosystem models can be used for giving advice on ecosystem-based catch options. The lack of management strategy evaluations implemented for the Baltic Sea became apparent and the WK stresses their development and application as a key step for implementation of EBFAdvice. Several ecosystem indicators are currently operational for the Baltic Sea region, mainly via developments in HELCOM and in relation to the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. These indicators could potentially support an EBFAdvice by providing an integrated ecosystem assessment framing, but further work is needed to assess how selected existing indicators could be analytically linked to the developing EBFAdvice. The WK proposed a roadmap on utilising ecosystem information in stock assessment and advice for the Baltic Sea over 2022-2023. As a central aim for the work, the WK agreed to test the use of Scaling factors for the species-specific long term Ftarget derived catch options (hence, applying an approach similar to the Feco approach developed by WKDICE and WKIRISH). The WK also proposed to produce Ecological and socio-economic profiles (ESP) of the specific stocks, which would identify quantitative indicators/factors for ecological processes that can be used to scale the species-specific Ftarget. Additionally, the WK proposed to amend the regular fisheries advice with information on Ecosystem consequences / Ecosystem risks as a result of the stock specific advice in question. The WK agreed that at its first stage of implementation, the EBFAdvice would focus on developing the F scaling factor, ESP and risks, as described above, in relation to the already existing single species assessment and stock-prediction models (while in the long term, multi-species or specific food web models would preferentially be used). It was identified that the implementations should be part of the ICES Benchmark process, where the approach would be tested and accepted. The proposed next benchmark of the small pelagic stocks in the Baltic 2022-2023, creates the first window of opportunity to test scaling factors. The WK recommends that the F scaling factor, ESP and risks be formulated in such a way that they can be integrated into existing ICES advice products, namely the advice on fishing opportunities, the Baltic Sea Ecosystem Overview and the Baltic Sea Fisheries Overview. The WK, further, proposed a number of changes to the ICES advisory process, in order to facilitate the operationalization of the roadmap and EBFAdvice. The work required to eventualize the proposed roadmap is dependent on further funding, and is foreseen to be facilitated by two more workshops (WKEBFAB 2 and 3). It should be noted that the working group for integrated assessment (WGIAB) has already suggested in their meeting ToRs for 2022-2024 to assist in the work of WKEBFAB and this collaboration is expressed as an item in the TORs.
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| 4. |
- Bergenius Nord, Mikaela, et al.
(författare)
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Benchmark workshop on Pandalus stocks (WKPRAWN)
- 2022
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in divisions 3.a and 4.a East (Skagerrak and Kattegat and northern North Sea in the Norwegian Deep)An ensemble model was developed to incorporate uncertainty in natural mortality (SS3 model). A distribution of possible natural mortalities at age was constructed based on a suite of M life history and other type models. Three M scenarios were developed: a low, median and high M. An objective weighting approach was used based on model performance statistics and diagnostics to develop the final assessment. The reference points were estimated using a shortcut MSE approach testing a range of fishing mortalities and biomass thresholds in relation to virgin stock size (B0). Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic)For the Barents Sea stock, the accepted assessment model fell on SPiCT. The commercial CPUE used in the assessment was thoroughly investigated and standardized using a non-spatial model. A spatio-temporal modelling approach (sdmTMB) for the joint Norwegian/Russian Barents Sea Ecosystem Survey (BESS) was presented and compared to the design-based estimators currently used. There was some retrospective error on F/Fmsy but Based on the presented diagnostics, the reference model was considered adequate and acceptable. The standard approach for short-term forecasts and reference points was agreed.Flemish Cap shrimp (NAFO Div. 3M)There was limited progress on the Flemish Cap stock (pra.27.3M). An excellent long-term EU survey from 1988-present is available for the stock covering the period of the moratorium. This shows an increase from 2016 to 2019 with a subsequent decrease. Length-composition data are also available from the survey for this assessment. In future, it may be possible to explore an SS3 model for this stock given the partial and patchy nature of the available data.
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- Bergström, Ulf, et al.
(författare)
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Workshop on Stickleback and Round Goby in the Baltic Sea (WKSTARGATE)
- 2022
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The aim of the Workshop on Stickleback and Round Goby in the Baltic Sea (WKSTARGATE) was to update, summarize and synthesize the current knowledge of both species with respect to their ecology and potential use in fisheries. Ongoing projects were presented in the mornings of the first two days to inform participants about current research in the respective countries (Annex 5). The group discussed ecological aspects that are relevant to fisheries, such as distribution and abundances, feeding ecology and behaviour. So far, no dedicated monitoring exists for either of the species. However, the Baltic International Acoustic Survey (BIAS), coordinated by ICES, has been used to estimate abundances and biomasses of pelagic stickleback in offshore areas across the Baltic, while the availability and quality of coastal data differs between countries, but is generally scarce. Even less current abundance information is available for round goby. It is only available for areas where it is already commercially exploited like Latvia.Most studies on the ecological impact of these species focus on trophic interactions, and its resulting competition. It became clear, that these ecological impacts depend on the abundance of the species and that the effects therefore vary on a temporal and spatial scale. Estimating the ecological impact of a stickleback or round goby fishery is therefore very speculative without reliable abundance data, why the group decided to describe the known impact of the species on the ecosystem.Landings of round goby increased significantly in Latvia during the last years, while stickleback landings decreased over the last five decades but most recently show a slight increase. A targeted round goby fishery exists in Latvian waters, while the stickleback is solely taken as bycatch in all Baltic countries. Both fisheries are currently unmanaged and, with the exception of round goby fishery in Latvia, unregulated. In Latvia the round goby fishery is regulated by effort, to reduce the bycatch of native species. Furthermore, Latvia has initiated work towards a stock assessment of round goby. Efforts for a Baltic-wide stickleback assessment have been undertaken by Sweden, and both, Sweden and Denmark are taking first steps towards a full analytical stock assessment.
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| 7. |
- Cardinale, Massimiliano, et al.
(författare)
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Workshop on ICES reference points (WKREF1)
- 2022
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The ICES Workshop on ICES reference points (WKREF1) was tasked to provide a thorough review of the ICES reference points system as a basis to re-evaluate the process for estimating, updating and communicating reference points in the context of the ICES advice. As part of the preparation leading to WKREF1 a large database of the most recent assessment outputs for 78 Category 1 stocks were collated in the form `FLStock` objects, which formed the basis for several components of the presented analyses.
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