| 1. |
- Ekman, Mattias, et al.
(författare)
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Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer : performance and confidence of experts and non-experts
- 2005
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Ingår i: International Journal of Forecasting. - : Elsevier B.V. - 1872-8200 .- 0169-2070. ; 21:3, s. 565-576
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper investigates the forecasting performance and confidence of experts and non-experts. 251 participants with four different levels of knowledge of soccer (ranging between expertise and almost ignorance) took part in a survey and predicted the outcome of the first round of World Cup 2002. The participating experts (i.e., sport journalists, soccer fans, and soccer coaches) and the non-experts were found to be equally accurate and better than chance. A simple prediction rule that followed world rankings outperformed most participants. Experts overestimated their performance and tended to be overconfident, while the opposite tendency was observed for the participants with limited knowledge. Providing non-experts with information did not improve their performance, but increased their confidence.
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| 2. |
- Malmberg, Bo, et al.
(författare)
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Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050
- 2007
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Ingår i: International Journal of Forecasting. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0169-2070 .- 1872-8200. ; 23:4, s. 553-567
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Abstract Demographic projections of age structure provide the best information available on long-term future human resources and demand. Fairly robust correlations between age structure, GDP and GDP growth have been discovered in current data. In this paper we use these two facts to study the forecasting properties of previous termdemographically basednext term models. Extending the previous termforecastsnext term to 2050 suggests that, due to projected fertility decreases, the poor countries of today will start to catch up with developed economies, in which the growth process will stagnate due to the growth of the elderly population. This remains the case whether or not indications of positive longevity effects are taken into account.
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| 3. |
- Medeiros, Marcelo C., et al.
(författare)
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Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions, and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series : a re-examination
- 2005
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Ingår i: International Journal of Forecasting. - : Elsevier. - 1872-8200 .- 0169-2070. ; 21:4, s. 755-774
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we examine the forecast accuracy of linear autoregressive, smooth transition autoregressive (STAR), and neural network (NN) time series models for 47 monthly macroeconomic variables of the G7 economies. Unlike previous studies that typically consider multiple but fixed model specifications, we use a single but dynamic specification for each model class. The point forecast results indicate that the STAR model generally outperforms linear autoregressive models. It also improves upon several fixed STAR models, demonstrating that careful specification of nonlinear time series models is of crucial importance. The results for neural network models are mixed in the sense that at long forecast horizons, an NN model obtained using Bayesian regularization produces more accurate forecasts than a corresponding model specified using the specific-to-general approach. Reasons for this outcome are discussed.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Öller, Lars-Erik, 1939-
(författare)
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Book review
- 2008
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Ingår i: International Journal of Forecasting. - : Elsevier. - 0169-2070. ; 24:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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