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- Bengtsson, Lars, et al.
(författare)
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Extreme storms in Malmo, Sweden
- 2010
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Ingår i: Hydrological Processes. - : Wiley. - 1099-1085 .- 0885-6087. ; 24:24, s. 3462-3475
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Short-term very intensive storms in the years 1980-2007 from rain gauges in Malmo have been analysed to find intensities of long return periods and to investigate trends. Observations from different stations have been pooled into series to which probability functions have been adjusted. Quality control of short-term precipitation records is emphasized. In order to investigate whether high rain intensities are different today compared to back in time, new and old rain data have been compared. Trends over the last 25 years have been computed for storms of duration 10 min to 1 h, and for 89 years of daily rains. A literature review of investigations of changing rain intensities is presented. It is found that 10- to 25-year long rain series from single stations are too short to give good estimates of storms of long recurrence time because a single event influences much. The largest observed rains in Malmo in the investigated period have a return period of about 20-50 years. For the very short-term storms, 50-year old intensity-duration-frequency curves do not differ much from those derived from new data. Trend analysis shows changing short-term high storm intensities only for storms of 10-min duration. (C) Copyright. 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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- Bengtsson, Lars, et al.
(författare)
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Long- term change of daily and multi- daily precipitation in southern Sweden
- 2014
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Ingår i: Hydrological Processes. - : Wiley. - 1099-1085 .- 0885-6087. ; 28:6, s. 2897-2911
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Daily rain series from southern Sweden with records dating back to the 1870s have been analysed to investigate the trends of daily and multi-day precipitation of different return periods with emphasis on the extremes. Probabilities of extreme storms were determined as continuously changing values based on 25 years of data. An extra set of data was used to investigate changes in Skane, the southernmost peninsula of Sweden. Another 30-year data set of more than 200 stations of a dense gauge network in Skane was used to investigate the relation between very large daily rainfall and annual precipitation. The annual precipitation has increased significantly all over southern Sweden due to increased winter precipitation. There is a trend of increasing maximum annual daily precipitation at only one station, where the annual maximum often occurs in winter. The number of events with a short return period is increasing, but the number of more extreme events has not increased. Daily and multi-daily design storms of long return periods determined from extreme value analysis with updating year by year are not higher today than during the last 100 years. The largest daily storms are not related to stations with annual rainfall but seem to occur randomly. Copyright (c) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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- Beven, Keith J., et al.
(författare)
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GLUE : 20 years on
- 2014
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Ingår i: Hydrological Processes. - : Wiley. - 0885-6087 .- 1099-1085. ; 28:24, s. 5897-5918
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper reviews the use of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology in the 20 years since the paper by Beven and Binley in Hydrological Processes in (1992), which is now one of the most highly cited papers in hydrology. The original conception, the on-going controversy it has generated, the nature of different sources of uncertainty and the meaning of the GLUE prediction uncertainty bounds are discussed. The hydrological, rather than statistical, arguments about the nature of model and data errors and uncertainties that are the basis for GLUE are emphasized. The application of the Institute of Hydrology distributed model to the Gwy catchment at Plynlimon presented in the original paper is revisited, using a larger sample of models, a wider range of likelihood evaluations and new visualization techniques. It is concluded that there are good reasons to reject this model for that data set. This is a positive result in a research environment in that it requires improved models or data to be made available. In practice, there may be ethical issues of using outputs from models for which there is evidence for model rejection in decision making. Finally, some suggestions for what is needed in the next 20 years are provided.
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- Beven, Keith
(författare)
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Preferential flows and travel time distributions : defining adequate hypothesis tests for hydrological process models
- 2010
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Ingår i: Hydrological Processes. - : Wiley. - 0885-6087 .- 1099-1085. ; 24:12, s. 1537-1547
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This introduction to the second annual review issue of Hydrological Processes tries to put the collection of papers on preferential flows and travel time distributions into a more general context of testing models as hypotheses about how catchment systems function. It is suggested that, because of the possibilities of non-stationary and epistemic errors in both data and models, such tests could be carried out within a rejectionist limits-of-acceptability framework. The principles and difficulties of hypothesis testing within these particular research areas are discussed. An important point to take from this discussion is that the use of a formal testing framework, and the consequent rejection of models as hypotheses after allowing for uncertainties in the data, is the starting point for developing better theories and data sets. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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