| 1. |
- Beser Hugosson, Muriel
(författare)
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Quantifying uncertainties in a national forecasting model
- 2005
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A. - : Elsevier BV. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 39:6, s. 531-547
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Uncertainties related to demand model system outputs is an important issue in travel demand models. This paper focuses on uncertainties arisen from the fact that models are estimated on a sample of the population (and not the whole population). Forecasting systems can be quite complex, and may contain procedures that not easily permit analytically derived statistical measures of uncertainty. In this paper, the possibilities to use computer-intensive numerical methods to compute statistical measures for very complex systems, without being bound to an analytical approach, are explored. Here, the bootstrap method is used to obtain statistical measures of outputs produced by the forecasting system SAMPERS. The SAMPERS system is used by Swedish transport authorities. The bootstrap method is briefly described as well as the procedure of applying bootstrap on the SAMPERS system. Numerical results are presented for selected forecast results at different levels such as total traffic demand, origin-destination demand, train line demand and the demand on specific links. Also, the uncertainty related to the value of time estimate is analysed.
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| 2. |
- Daunfeldt, Sven-Olov, et al.
(författare)
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Congestion charges and retail revenues : results from the Stockholm road pricing trial
- 2009
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A. - : Elsevier. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 43:3, s. 306-309
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper studies the impact of the Stockholm road pricing trial on retail revenues. The analysis is performed using revenue data from 14 shopping malls, 9 within the tool area and 5 outside the tool area. The data also include revenue data from a sample of retail stores located along the main shopping streets in Stockholm. The results show that the Stockholm road pricing trial did not negatively affect retail revenue, neither in shopping malls nor in the sample of retail stores.
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| 3. |
- Dziekan, Katrin, et al.
(författare)
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Dynamic At-stop Real-time Information Displays for Public Transport : Effects on Customers
- 2007
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A. - Oxford : PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 41:6, s. 489-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dynamic at-stop real-time information displays are becoming more and more ubiquitous in modern public transport. Reactions and attitudes towards these systems are very positive. But there is a need to provide a comprehensive framework of the possible effects that these kinds of displays can have on customers. The seven main effects described in this paper are: (A) reduced wait time, (B) positive psychological factors, such as reduced uncertainty, increased ease-of-use and a greater feeling of security, (C) increased willingness-to-pay, (D) adjusted travel behaviour such as better use of wait time or more efficient travelling, (E) mode choice effects, (F) higher customer satisfaction and finally (G) better image. Two studies are presented in this paper. Study I supports and proves that perceived wait times can be reduced by 20% by employing a before-after implementation evaluation study with questionnaires on a tramline. Study II shows the effects of real-time displays on behaviour in the form of adjusted walking speeds, by using a behaviour observation method in a subway station. The effect framework does not claim completeness and many effects are related to each other. However, the framework is a useful basis for designing evaluation studies and provides arguments in favour of at-stop real-time information displays.
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| 4. |
- Eliasson, Jonas
(författare)
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A Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Stockholm Congestion Charging System
- 2009
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A. - : Elsevier BV. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 43:4, s. 468-480
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a cost-benefit analysis of the Stockholm congestion charging system, based on the observed rather than on the model-forecasted data. The most important data sources are travel time and traffic flow measurements made in the year before the charges were introduced (during April 2005) and during the first spring with the charges (during April 2006, 4 months after the charges were introduced). Using matrix calibration, effects on the non-observed link flows and travel times are extrapolated, enabling us to calculate the social value of changes in travel times and travel costs. Impacts on traffic safety and emissions are calculated using standard Swedish CBA relationships. The system is shown to yield a significant social surplus, well enough to cover both investment and operating costs, provided that it is kept for a reasonable lifetime: investment and startup costs are "recovered" in terms of social benefits in around 4 years.
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| 5. |
- Eliasson, Jonas, 1969-, et al.
(författare)
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Equity effects of congestion pricing. Quantitative methodology and a case study for Stockholm
- 2006
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A. - : Elsevier BV. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 40:7, s. 602-620
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is widely recognised that congestion pricing could be an effective measure to solve environmental and congestion problems in urban areas—a reform that normally also would generate a net welfare surplus. Despite this the implementation of congestion pricing has been very slow. One reason for a low public and political acceptance could be that equity impacts have not been given enough concern. In studies of distributional impacts of congestion pricing it has often been claimed that the reform is regressive rather than progressive even if there are studies claiming the opposite. We develop a method for detailed, quantitative assessment of equity effects of road pricing and apply it to a real-world example, namely a proposed congestion-charging scheme for Stockholm. The method simultaneously takes into account differences in travel behaviour, in preferences (such as values of time) and in supply of travel possibilities (car ownership, public transport level-of-service etc.). We conclude that the two most important factors for the net impact of congestion pricing are the initial travel patterns and how revenues are used. Differences in these respects dwarf differences in other factors such as values of time. This is accentuated by the fact that the total collected charges are more than three times as large as the net benefits. With respect to different groups, we find that men, high-income groups and residents in the central parts of the city will be affected the most. If revenues are used for improving public transport, this will benefit women and low-income groups the most. If revenues are used for tax cuts, the net benefits will be about equal for men and women on the average, while it naturally will benefit high-income groups. Given that it is likely that the revenues will be used to some extent to improve the public transport system, we conclude that the proposed congestion-charging scheme for Stockholm is progressive rather than regressive.
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| 6. |
- Eliasson, Jonas, et al.
(författare)
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Introduction : Editorial
- 2009
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A. - Amsterdam : Elsevier. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 43:3, s. 237-239
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Eliasson, Jonas, et al.
(författare)
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The Stockholm Congestion-Charging Trial 2006 : Overview of the effects
- 2009
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A. - Amsterdam : Elsevier BV. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 43:3, s. 240-250
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Stockholm congestion charging trial in 2006 demonstrated the effects of a full-scale time-differentiated urban road toll scheme. Improvements in travel times were large enough to be perceived by the general public. This was pivotal to the radical change of public attitudes that occurred during the trial and that resulted in a positive outcome of a subsequent referendum on a proposal for making the system permanent. This paper summarises the effects of the trial and analyses to what extent targets were met. Effects on congestion reduction were larger than anticipated, which also resulted in favourable economic and environmental effects. The trial showed that a single-cordon toll could affect traffic within a large area, i.e., not just close to the zone limits.
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| 9. |
- Eriksson, Louise, et al.
(författare)
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Acceptability of single and combined transport policy measures : the importance of environmental and policy specific beliefs
- 2008
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A. - : Elsevier. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 42:8, s. 1117-1128
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study, the acceptability of different transport policy measures was examined. Three measures were assessed individually and as packages combining one push measure (a raised tax on fossil fuel) and one pull measure (in Package 1 improved public transport and in Package 2 a subsidy of renewable fuel). To analyze factors important for the acceptability, we proposed a model where the value-belief-norm theory combined with policy specific beliefs (perceived fairness and perceived effectiveness) predicted acceptability. Furthermore, we examined whether problem awareness or personal norm was more important for acceptability. In a questionnaire study conducted in Sweden, a sample of car users (N = 616) assessed the transport policy measures. Results showed that while the pull measures were perceived to be effective, fair, and acceptable, the push measure and the packages were perceived to be rather ineffective, unfair, and unacceptable. The proposed model was supported for the measures and problem awareness was found to have a direct effect on acceptability for the pull measures while personal norm was found to have a direct effect on acceptability for the push measure and the two policy packages. In addition, perceived fairness and effectiveness were found to be particularly important for acceptability.
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| 10. |
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