| 1. |
- Andren, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Integrating animal tracking datasets at a continental scale for mapping Eurasian lynx habitat
- 2023
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Ingår i: Diversity and Distributions. - 1366-9516 .- 1472-4642. ; 29, s. 1546-1560
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim The increasing availability of animal tracking datasets collected across many sites provides new opportunities to move beyond local assessments to enable detailed and consistent habitat mapping at biogeographical scales. However, integrating wildlife datasets across large areas and study sites is challenging, as species' varying responses to different environmental contexts must be reconciled. Here, we compare approaches for large-area habitat mapping and assess available habitat for a recolonizing large carnivore, the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx).LocationEurope.Methods We use a continental-scale animal tracking database (450 individuals from 14 study sites) to systematically assess modelling approaches, comparing (1) global strategies that pool all data for training versus building local, site-specific models and combining them, (2) different approaches for incorporating regional variation in habitat selection and (3) different modelling algorithms, testing nonlinear mixed effects models as well as machine-learning algorithms.Results Testing models on training sites and simulating model transfers, global and local modelling strategies achieved overall similar predictive performance. Model performance was the highest using flexible machine-learning algorithms and when incorporating variation in habitat selection as a function of environmental variation. Our best-performing model used a weighted combination of local, site-specific habitat models. Our habitat maps identified large areas of suitable, but currently unoccupied lynx habitat, with many of the most suitable unoccupied areas located in regions that could foster connectivity between currently isolated populations.Main Conclusions We demonstrate that global and local modelling strategies can achieve robust habitat models at the continental scale and that considering regional variation in habitat selection improves broad-scale habitat mapping. More generally, we highlight the promise of large wildlife tracking databases for large-area habitat mapping. Our maps provide the first high-resolution, yet continental assessment of lynx habitat across Europe, providing a consistent basis for conservation planning for restoring the species within its former range.
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| 2. |
- Andren, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Large carnivore expansion in Europe is associated with human population density and land cover changes
- 2021
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Ingår i: Diversity and Distributions. - : Wiley. - 1366-9516 .- 1472-4642. ; 27, s. 602-617
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim: The recent recovery of large carnivores in Europe has been explained as resulting from a decrease in human persecution driven by widespread rural land abandonment, paralleled by forest cover increase and the consequent increase in availability of shelter and prey. We investigated whether land cover and human population density changes are related to the relative probability of occurrence of three European large carnivores: the grey wolf (Canis lupus), the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) and the brown bear (Ursus arctos).Location: Europe, west of 64 degrees longitude.Methods: We fitted multi-temporal species distribution models using >50,000 occurrence points with time series of land cover, landscape configuration, protected areas, hunting regulations and human population density covering a 24-year period (1992-2015). Within the temporal window considered, we then predicted changes in habitat suitability for large carnivores throughout Europe.Results: Between 1992 and 2015, the habitat suitability for the three species increased in Eastern Europe, the Balkans, North-West Iberian Peninsula and Northern Scandinavia, but showed mixed trends in Western and Southern Europe. These trends were primarily associated with increases in forest cover and decreases in human population density, and, additionally, with decreases in the cover of mosaics of cropland and natural vegetation.Main conclusions: Recent land cover and human population changes appear to have altered the habitat suitability pattern for large carnivores in Europe, whereas protection level did not play a role. While projected changes largely match the observed recovery of large carnivore populations, we found mismatches with the recent expansion of wolves in Central and Southern Europe, where factors not included in our models may have played a dominant role. This suggests that large carnivores' co-existence with humans in European landscapes is not limited by habitat availability, but other factors such as favourable human tolerance and policy.
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| 3. |
- Azevedo, Josué, et al.
(författare)
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Deforestation limits evolutionary rescue under climate change in Amazonian lizards
- 2024
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Ingår i: DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS. - 1366-9516 .- 1472-4642. ; 30:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AimThe impact of climate change on biodiversity is often analysed under a stable evolutionary perspective focused on whether species can currently tolerate warmer climates. However, species may adapt to changes, and particularly under conditions of low habitat fragmentation, standing adaptive genetic variation can spread across populations tracking changing climates, increasing the potential for evolutionary rescue. Here, our aim is to integrate genomic data, niche modelling and landscape ecology to predict range shifts and the potential for evolutionary rescue.LocationThe megadiverse Amazonian rainforest.MethodsWe use genome-environment association analyses to search for candidate loci under environmental selection, while accounting for neutral genetic variation in a widespread Amazonian whiptail lizard (Teiidae: Kentropyx calcarata). We then model the distribution of individuals with genotypes adapted to different climate conditions. We predict range shifts for each genotype in distinct future climate change scenarios by integrating this information with dispersal constraints based on predicted scenarios of forest cover across Amazonia. The predicted ranges of each genotype were then overlapped to infer the potential for evolutionary rescue.ResultsWe find that the potential for evolutionary rescue and, therefore, a smaller degree of range loss buffering extinction risk in the future is considerably high, provided that current forest cover is retained and climate change is not extreme. However, under extreme environmental change scenarios, range loss will be high in central and southern Amazonia, irrespective of the degree of deforestation.Main ConclusionsOur results suggest that protecting the Amazonian rainforest against further deforestation and mitigating climate change to moderate scenarios until 2070 could foster evolutionary rescue of ectothermic organisms. These actions could prevent substantial biodiversity loss in Amazonia, emphasizing the importance of understanding species adaptability in maintaining biodiversity.
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| 4. |
- Bradter, Ute, et al.
(författare)
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Habitat suitability models based on opportunistic citizen science data: Evaluating forecasts from alternative methods versus an individual-based model
- 2021
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Ingår i: Diversity and Distributions. - : Wiley. - 1366-9516 .- 1472-4642. ; 27, s. 2397-2411
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim To evaluate the utility of opportunistic data from citizen science programmes for forecasting species distributions against forecasts with a model of individual-based population dynamics. Location Sweden. Methods We evaluated whether alternative methods for building habitat suitability models (HSMs) based on opportunistic data from citizen science programmes produced forecasts that were consistent with forecasts from two benchmark models: (1) a HSM based on data from systematic monitoring and (2) an individual-based model for spatially explicit population dynamics based on empirical demographic and movement data. We forecasted population numbers and habitat suitability for three realistic, future forest landscapes for a forest bird, the Siberian jay (Perisoreus infaustus). We ranked simulated forest landscapes with respect to their benefits to Siberian jays for each modelling method and compared the agreement of the rankings among methods. Results Forecasts based on our two benchmark models were consistent with each other and with expectations based on the species' ecology. Forecasts from logistic regression models based on opportunistic data were consistent with the benchmark models if species detections were combined with high-quality inferred absences derived via retrospective interviews with experienced "super-reporters." In contrast, forecasts with three other widely used methods were inconsistent with the benchmark models, sometimes with misleading rankings of future scenarios. Main conclusions Our critical evaluation of alternative HSMs against a spatially explicit IBM demonstrates that information on species absences critically improves forecasts of species distributions using opportunistic data from citizen science programmes. Moreover, high-quality information on species absences can be retrospectively inferred from surveys of the consistency of reporting of individual species and the identification skills of participating reporters. We recommend that citizen science projects incorporate procedures to evaluate reporting behaviour. Inferred absences may be especially useful for improving forecasts for species and regions poorly covered by systematic monitoring schemes.
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| 5. |
- Chazot, Nicolas
(författare)
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Anthropogenic pressures coincide with Neotropical biodiversity hotspots in a flagship butterfly group
- 2022
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Ingår i: Diversity and Distributions. - : Wiley. - 1366-9516 .- 1472-4642. ; 28, s. 2912-2930
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim The biodiversity crisis has highlighted the need to assess and map biodiversity in order to prioritize conservation efforts. Clearwing butterflies (tribe Ithomiini) have been proposed as biological indicators for habitat quality in Neotropical forests, which contain the world's richest biological communities. Here, we provide maps of different facets of Ithomiini diversity across the Neotropics to identify areas of evolutionary and ecological importance for conservation and evaluate their overlap with current anthropogenic threats. Location Neotropics. Methods We ran species distribution models on a data set based on 28,986 georeferenced occurrences representing 388 ithomiine species to generate maps of geographic rarity, taxonomic, phylogenetic and Mullerian mimetic wing pattern diversity. We quantified and mapped the overlap of diversity hotspots with areas threatened by or providing refuge from current anthropogenic pressures. Results The eastern slopes of the Andes formed the primary hotspot of taxonomic, phylogenetic and mimetic diversity, with secondary hotspots in Central America and the Atlantic Forest. Most diversity indices were strongly spatially correlated. Nevertheless, species-poor communities on the Pacific slopes of the Andes also sheltered some of the geographically rarest species. Overall, tropical montane forests that host high species and mimetic diversity as well as rare species and mimicry rings appeared particularly under threat. Main conclusions Remote parts of the Upper Amazon may act as refuges against current anthropogenic pressures for a limited portion of Ithomiini diversity. Furthermore, it is likely that the current threat status may worsen with ongoing climate change and deforestation. In this context, the tropical Andes occupy a crucial position as the primary hotspot for multiple facets of biodiversity for ithomiine butterflies, as they do for angiosperms, tetrapods and other insect taxa. Our results support the role of ithomiine butterflies as a suitable flagship indicator group for Neotropical butterfly diversity and reinforce the position of the tropical Andes as a flagship region for biodiversity conservation in general, and insect and butterfly conservation in particular.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Farooq, Harith, 1986, et al.
(författare)
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WEGE: A new metric for ranking locations for biodiversity conservation
- 2020
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Ingår i: Diversity and Distributions. - : Wiley. - 1366-9516 .- 1472-4642.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim Effective policymaking for biological conservation requires the identification and ranking of the most important areas for protection or management. One of the most frequently used systems for selecting priority areas is the Key Biodiversity Areas (hereafter KBAs), developed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). However, KBAs cannot be used to rank areas, potentially limiting their use when limited funding is available. To tackle this shortcoming and facilitate spatial prioritization, here we develop and validate the "WEGE index" (Weighted Endemism including Global Endangerment index), consisting of an adaptation of the EDGE score (Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered). WEGE allows the ranking of any set of locations according to the KBA guidelines and on a continuous scale. Location Global. Methods We calculated the EDGE score, Weighted Endemism, Evolutionary distinctiveness, Extinction risk and our newly developed WEGE index for all terrestrial species of amphibians, mammals and birds accessed by IUCN. We then compared the performance of each of those five indices at prioritizing areas according to the KBA guidelines. Results We found that for all taxa surveyed, WEGE was consistently better at identifying areas that trigger KBA status. Main conclusions In our analyses, WEGE outperformed all other methods and metrics designed for similar purposes. It can serve as a robust evidence-based methodology to prioritize among otherwise equally qualified sites according to the KBA categories. WEGE can therefore support transparent, evidence-based and biologically meaningful decision-making for conservation priorities.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Gossmann, Anika, et al.
(författare)
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Interaction between regional temperature and shade level shapes saproxylic beetle communities
- 2024
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Ingår i: Diversity and Distributions. - 1366-9516 .- 1472-4642. ; 30
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AimThe 'concept of relative constancy of habitats' assumes that species differ in their habitat preferences depending on the regional temperature so that all populations experience similar microclimatic conditions. Our aim was to assess the relevance of this concept by disentangling the effects of shade level and regional temperature on southern and northern distributed saproxylic (=dead wood dependent) beetle species.LocationSweden.MethodsWe established a field experiment by placing 435 logs of Norway spruce (Picea abies) along shade gradients in six regions differing in regional temperature (along a 1200 km latitudinal gradient). For each log, we sampled the saproxylic beetle community and calculated the Community Temperature Index (CTI), indicating to what extent the community is dominated by southern or northern species.ResultsSpecies richness and total abundance were better explained by shade level, whereas species composition was better explained by study region. In colder regions, CTI varied along the shade gradient, whereas in warmer regions, CTI was more similar along the shade gradient. Moreover, in colder regions, the number of southern species was higher in sun-exposed logs, whereas in warmer regions, the number of southern species was higher in shaded logs. This supports the concept of relative constancy of habitats. In contrast, northern species preferred shaded conditions regardless of the regional temperature.Main ConclusionsRegional temperature, shade level and resulting microclimate are important drivers of species richness, total abundance and composition. Occurrence patterns of saproxylic beetle species follow to some extent the concept of relative constancy of habitats since their habitat preferences vary with regional temperature. Northern species are of conservation concern due to disadvantages by climate warming and clear-cutting. They are favoured by preserving forests with rarely disturbed canopies.
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| 10. |
- Green, Leon, et al.
(författare)
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Sperm performance limits the reproduction of an invasive fish in novel salinities
- 2021
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Ingår i: Diversity and Distributions. - : Wiley. - 1366-9516 .- 1472-4642. ; 27:6, s. 1091-1105
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim: The few fish species able to reproduce across wide osmotic ranges either plastically acclimate sperm performance to, or are locally adapted to, different salinities. The invasive round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) is spreading in Eurasia and the Americas, into both fresh and brackish water. We aim to understand if reproduction in different salinities is affected by an ability to acclimate. Location: Brackish and freshwater systems of northern Europe and the Baltic Sea. Methods: We cross-exposed round gobies of freshwater and brackish origin to 0 and 16 practical salinity units (PSU), and the fish were given nest boxes in which to spawn. After 4weeks, we measured their sperm performance in both 0 and 16 PSU; fertilization success of each egg clutch was measured through visual analysis of eggs. Clutches were split and allowed to develop in both 0 and 16 PSU salinity, and reproductive success (zygote development) was measured 20±1days later. Responses were analysed using generalized mixed models. Results: After a month, the fish showed no plasticity in sperm performance to their acclimation salinity, regardless of their origin. Sperm velocity was highest in the salinity similar to the males’ origin. Significantly lower fertilization success was measured for individuals that reproduced outside their salinity of origin despite recurring spawning events in all treatment groups. Among fertilized eggs, zygote development was similar regardless of salinity treatment of either eggs or parents. Main Conclusions: Short-term acclimation to new salinities does not affect sperm performance in the round goby. Alternative hypotheses such as local adaption should be further investigated. Limits to the species’ reproductive success, and therefore invasion processes, are likely dependent on environment-phenotype matches. Fish of brackish origin spawned successfully in freshwater, pointing to an increased risk of introducing populations of brackish origin into freshwater.
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