| 1. |
- Buchecker, M., et al.
(författare)
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The role of risk perception in making flood risk management more effective
- 2013
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Ingår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981. ; 13, s. 3013-3030
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the last few decades, Europe has suffered from a number of severe flood events and, as a result, there has been a growing interest in probing alternative approaches to managing flood risk via prevention measures. A literature review reveals that, although in the last decades risk evaluation has been recognized as key element of risk management, and risk assessment methodologies (including risk analysis and evaluation) have been improved by including social, economic, cultural, historical and political conditions, the theoretical schemes are not yet applied in practice. One main reason for this shortcoming is that risk perception literature is mainly of universal and theoretical nature and cannot provide the necessary details to implement a comprehensive risk evaluation. This paper therefore aims to explore a procedure that allows the inclusion of stakeholders' perceptions of prevention measures in risk assessment. It proposes to adopt methods of risk communication (both one-way and two-way communication) in risk assessment with the final aim of making flood risk management more effective. The proposed procedure not only focuses on the effect of discursive risk communication on risk perception, and on achieving a shared assessment of the prevention alternatives, but also considers the effects of the communication process on perceived uncertainties, accepted risk levels, and trust in the managing institutions.The effectiveness of this combined procedure has been studied and illustrated using the example of the participatory flood prevention assessment process on the Sihl River in Zurich, Switzerland. The main findings of the case study suggest that the proposed procedure performed well, but that it needs some adaptations for it to be applicable in different contexts and to allow a (semi-) quantitative estimation of risk perception to be used as an indicator of adaptive capacity.
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| 2. |
- Gabrovšek, Franci, et al.
(författare)
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Karst show caves – how DTN technology as used in space assists automatic environmental monitoring and tourist protection – experiment in Postojna Cave
- 2014
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Ingår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981. ; 14:2, s. 443-457
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The paper presents an experiment demonstrating a novel and successful application of delay- and disruption-tolerant networking (DTN) technology for automatic data transfer in a karst cave early warning and measuring system. The experiment took place inside the Postojna Cave in Slovenia, which is open to tourists. Several automatic meteorological measuring stations are set up inside the cave, as an adjunct to the surveillance infrastructure; the regular data transfer provided by the DTN technology allows the surveillance system to take on the role of an early warning system (EWS). One of the stations is set up alongside the railway tracks, which allows the tourist to travel inside the cave by train. The experiment was carried out by placing a DTN "data mule" (a DTN-enabled computer with WiFi connection) on the train and by upgrading the meteorological station with a DTN-enabled WiFi transmission system. When the data mule is in the wireless drive-by mode, it collects measurement data from the station over a period of several seconds as the train without stopping passes the stationary equipment, and delivers data at the final train station by the cave entrance. This paper describes an overview of the experimental equipment and organization allowing the use of a DTN system for data collection and an EWS inside karst caves where there is regular traffic of tourists and researchers.
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| 3. |
- Montesarchio, Valeria, et al.
(författare)
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Rainfall threshold definition using an entropy decision approach and radar data
- 2012
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Ingår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981. ; 7, s. 2061-2074
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Flash flood events are floods characterised by a very rapid response of basins to storms, often resulting in loss of life and property damage. Due to the specific space-time scale of this type of flood, the lead time available for triggering civil protection measures is typically short. Rainfall threshold values specify the amount of precipitation for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given river cross section. If the threshold values are exceeded, it can produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk. It is therefore possible to directly compare the observed or forecasted precipitation with critical reference values, without running online real-time forecasting systems. The focus of this study is the Mignone River basin, located in Central Italy. The critical rainfall threshold values are evaluated by minimising a utility function based on the informative entropy concept and by using a simulation approach based on radar data. The study concludes with a system performance analysis, in terms of correctly issued warnings, false alarms and missed alarms.
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| 4. |
- Ridolfi, Elena, et al.
(författare)
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An entropy approach for evaluating the maximum information content achievable by an urban rainfall network
- 2011
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Ingår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981. ; 11:7, s. 2075-2083
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hydrological models are the basis of operational flood-forecasting systems. The accuracy of these models is strongly dependent on the quality and quantity of the input information represented by rainfall height. Finer space-time rainfall resolution results in more accurate hazard forecasting. In this framework, an optimum raingauge network is essential in predicting flood events.This paper develops an entropy-based approach to evaluate the maximum information content achievable by a rainfall network for different sampling time intervals. The procedure is based on the determination of the coefficients of transferred and nontransferred information and on the relative isoinformation contours.The nontransferred information value achieved by the whole network is strictly dependent on the sampling time intervals considered. An empirical curve is defined, to assess the objective of the research: the nontransferred information value is plotted versus the associated sampling time on a semi-log scale. The curve has a linear trend.In this paper, the methodology is applied to the high-density raingauge network of the urban area of Rome.
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| 5. |
- Smith, E. A., et al.
(författare)
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Transitioning from CRD to CDRD in Bayesian retrieval of rainfall from satellite passive microwave measurements : Part 3 - Identification of optimal meteorological tags
- 2013
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Ingår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981. ; 13:5, s. 1185-1208
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the first two parts of this study we have presented a performance analysis of our new Cloud Dynamics and Radiation Database (CDRD) satellite precipitation retrieval algorithm on various convective and stratiform rainfall case studies verified with precision radar ground truth data, and an exposition of the algorithm's detailed design in conjunction with a proof-of-concept analysis vis-a-vis its theoretical underpinnings. In this third part of the study, we present the underlying analysis used to identify what we refer to as the optimal metrological and geophysical tags, which are the optimally effective atmospheric and geographic parameters that are used to refine the selection of candidate microphysical profiles used for the Bayesian retrieval. These tags enable extending beyond the conventional Cloud Radiation Database (CRD) algorithm by invoking meteorological-geophysical guidance, drawn from a simulated database, which affect and are in congruence with the observed precipitation states. This is guidance beyond the restrictive control provided by only simulated radiative transfer equation (RTE) model-derived database brightness temperature (TB) vector proximity information in seeking to relate physically consistent precipitation profile solutions to individual satellite-observed TB vectors. The first two parts of the study have rigorously demonstrated that the optimal tags effectively mitigate against solution ambiguity, where use of only a CRD framework (TB guidance only) leads to pervasive non-uniqueness problems in finding rainfall solutions. Alternatively, a CDRD framework (TB + tag guidance) mitigates against non-uniqueness problems through improved constraints. It remains to show how these optimal tags are identified. By use of three statistical analysis procedures applied to a database from 120 North American atmospheric simulations of precipitating storms (independent of the 60 simulations for the European-Mediterranean basin region used in the Parts 1 and 2 studies), we examine 25 separate dynamical-thermodynamical-hydrological (DST) and geophysical parameters for their relationships to rainfall variables - specifically, surface rain rate and columnar liquid/ice/total water paths of precipitating hydrometeors. The analysis identifies seven optimal parameter tags which exceed all others in the strengths of their correlations to the precipitation variables but also have observational counterparts in the operational global forecast model outputs. The seven optimal tags are (1 and 2) vertical velocities at 700 and 500 hPa; (3) equivalent potential temperature at surface; (4) convective available potential energy; (5) moisture flux 50 hPa above surface; (6) freezing level height; and (7) terrain height, i.e., surface height.
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| 6. |
- Turkington, Thea, et al.
(författare)
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Empirical atmospheric thresholds for debris flows and flash floodsin the southern French Alps
- 2014
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Ingår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981. ; 14, s. 1517-1530
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Debris flows and flash floods are often preceded by intense, convective rainfall. The establishment of reliable rainfall thresholds is an important component for quantitative hazard and risk assessment, and for the development of an early warning system. Traditional empirical thresholds based on peak intensity, duration and antecedent rainfall can be difficult to verify due to the localized character of the rainfall and the absence of weather radar or sufficiently dense rain gauge networks in mountainous regions. However, convective rainfall can be strongly linked to regional atmospheric patterns and profiles. There is potential to employ this in empirical threshold analysis. This work develops a methodology to determine robust thresholds for flash floods and debris flows utilizing regional atmospheric conditions derived from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, comparing the results with rain-gauge-derived thresholds. The method includes selecting the appropriate atmospheric indicators, categorizing the potential thresholds, determining and testing the thresholds. The method is tested in the Ubaye Valley in the southern French Alps (548 km2), which is known to have localized convection triggered debris flows and flash floods. This paper shows that instability of the atmosphere and specific humidity at 700 hPa are the most important atmospheric indicators for debris flows and flash floods in the study area. Furthermore, this paper demonstrates that atmospheric reanalysis data are an important asset, and could replace rainfall measurements in empirical exceedance thresholds for debris flows and flash floods.
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| 7. |
- Jönsson, Anna Maria, et al.
(författare)
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Ensemble analysis of frost damage on vegetation caused by spring backlashes in a warmer Europe
- 2011
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Ingår i: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1684-9981. ; 11:2, s. 401-418
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Tree dehardening and budburst will occur earlier in a warmer climate, and this could lead to an increased risk of frost damage caused by temperature backlashes. By using a spring backlash index and a cold hardiness model, we assessed different aspects of risk for frost damage in Norway spruce forests during the present climate and for one future emission scenario. Uncertainties associated with climate modelling were quantified by using temperature data from three climate data sets: (1) E-Obs gridded observed climate data, (2) an ensemble of data from eight regional climate models (RCM) forced by ERA-40 reanalysis data, (3) an ensemble of regional climate scenarios produced by the regional climate model RCA3 driven at the boundary conditions by seven global climate models (GCM), all representing the SRES A1B emission scenario. The frost risk was analysed for three periods, 1961-1990, 2011-2040 and 2070-2097. The RCA3 GCM ensemble indicated that the risk for spring frost damage may increase in the boreo-nemoral forest zone of southern Scandinavia and the Baltic states/Belarus. This is due to an increased frequency of backlashes, lower freezing temperatures after the onset of the vegetation period and the last spring frost occurring when the trees are closer to budburst. The changes could be transient due to the fine balance between an increased risk of frost damage caused by dehardening during a period when freezing temperatures are common and a decreased risk caused by warmer temperatures. In the nemoral zone, the zone with highest risk for spring backlashes during the reference period (1961-1990), the spring frost severity may increase due to frost events occurring when the trees are closer to budburst. However, the risk in terms of frequency of backlashes and freezing temperature were projected to become lower already in the beginning of this century.
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