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- Batljan, Ilija, et al.
(författare)
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Population aging : the effect of change in educational composition
- 2009
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Ingår i: EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGEING. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1613-9372 .- 1613-9380. ; 6:3, s. 201-211
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We investigate how expected changes in the educational level composition of the older population may affect future prevalence of severe ill-health among older people in Sweden. Previous research has indicated that the number of older people, given educational differentials in mortality and expected changes in educational composition during the next decades, may increase more than expected following official population projections in Sweden. Eight alternative scenario projections for the possible development in the number of people with severe ill-health in Sweden between 2000 and 2035 are presented. Scenario projections, where both morbidity and mortality inequalities by educational level are taken into account, are compared with scenarios in which only age and gender are modelled. The projections are made with both constant and decreasing mortality. The calculations show that the expected increases in severe ill-health as a result from the ageing of the population in the period 2000-2035 might, to a large extent, be counteracted by the increase in the educational level of the Swedish population. We recommend therefore that in projections of the prevalence of ill-health, in addition to the ageing of the population, also changes in educational level should be taken into account.
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- Batljan, Ilija, et al.
(författare)
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The effect of change in educational composition on population ageing
- 2009
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Ingår i: EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGEING. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1613-9372 .- 1613-9380. ; 6:3, s. 191-200
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Official Swedish demographic projections have systematically underestimated the number of older people. One explanation behind the underestimation may be found in the fact that the demographic projections are not taking into account socio-economic mortality differentials. We performed alternative demographic scenarios based on assumptions of unchanged and continuing declining mortality, with and without taking into account socio-economic gradients in mortality. According to a scenario based on assumption on declining mortality rates per age group, sex and educational level, the number of older persons (65+) in Sweden will increase by 62% during the period 2000-2035. This can be compared to an increase by 54% in a scenario that does not take into account future structural differences in educational levels and the latest trends in socio-economic inequality in life expectancy (the method used by statistical offices). The socio-economic structure of the older population is significantly changing over the years. We project that by year 2035, only 20% of women 80 years and older will have a low educational level, compared to about 75-80% today. The change in socio-economic structure is similar for the older men. Standard demographic projections that do not take into account socio-economic mortality differentials, risk underestimating the number of older people and hiding dramatic changes in population composition. Taking into account socio-economic mortality differentials results in alternative projections giving us new information regarding the future size and socio-economic composition of the older population. We recommend use of this information in health care and long-term care human resources planning or when assessing financial sustainability of health care, long-term care and pension systems in the future.
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- Hacic, Kozma, et al.
(författare)
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Aging in disguise : age, period and cohort effects in mobility and edentulousness over three decades
- 2007
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Ingår i: European journal of ageing. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1613-9372 .- 1613-9380. ; 4:2, s. 83-91
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- By corroborating cross-sectional with longitudinal analyses, this study illustrates how cohort effects can confound trends over age and time. Mobility (walking difficulties) and edentulousness (toothlessness) were studied from 1968 to 2002 in a nationally representative panel aged 18-75 (5 waves, n approximate to 5,000) and ages 77+ at later waves (2 waves, n approximate to 500). Three analyses were done: cross-sectional 10-year age group differences in 5 waves, time-lag differences between waves (shifts across time) for age groups, and within-cohort differences between waves for 10-year birth cohorts followed over time. Complementary age-period-cohort models using logistic regression analysis evaluated differences. Both mobility and edentulousness have earlier been shown to be strongly related to age cross-sectionally. For mobility, cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses showed large changes, whereas time-lag analysis indicated no or marginal changes. Both cross-sectional and longitudinal results showed an exponential curvilinear age dependency for mobility limitations, with limitations becoming more usual in older ages. In contrast, cross-sectional and time-lag analyses of edentulousness showed large differences, whereas longitudinal analysis indicated no or marginal changes. Rates of edentulousness became increasingly lower for successively later cohorts in a curvilinear fashion. These patterns demonstrate that age effects dominated mobility, whereas cohort effects dominated edentulousness. Age-period-cohort models confirmed these findings. The cohort effect of edentulousness implies that the cohorts' movement through time gives a false impression of age and period effects in cross-sectional data.
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- Hovbrandt, Pia, et al.
(författare)
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Very old people’s use of the pedestrian environment: functional limitations, frequency of activity and environmental demands
- 2007
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Ingår i: European Journal of Ageing. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1613-9380 .- 1613-9372. ; 4:4, s. 201-211
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Due to decreased functional capacity as well as high environmental demands there is a risk of diminishing activity outside home in very old age (age 80+). In order to explore differences according to functional limitations (FL) among very old people with respect to frequency of activity, perceived health, overall perception of neighbourhood environment, and perceived problems in the pedestrian environment, data derived from a postal questionnaire survey to very old people living in an urban area in Sweden were used. This explorative study is based on the sub-sample of people aged 80+ who reported outdoor activities (n = 97). Four groups of respondents with different types of FL were identified: with no FL (n = 23), with only movement-related FL (n = 26), with only perception/cognition-related FL (n = 16), and with both movement- and perception/ cognition-related FL (n = 32). The majority of the respondents reported rather high frequency of activity outside home. When examining differences between the four groups, the analysis indicated how the complexity of FL and perceived problems in the pedestrian environment impacted on their activity performance. Persons with both movement- and perception/cognition-related FL were less satisfied with their frequency of activity, experienced their health more negatively and experienced more problems in the pedestrian environment than in the other groups. The findings from this study indicate the importance of considering combinations of FL in creating supportive environments for activity and health.
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- Larsson, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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Are public care and services for older people targeted according to need? : Applying the Behavioural Model on longitudinal data of a Swedish urban older population
- 2006
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Ingår i: European Journal of Ageing. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1613-9372 .- 1613-9380. ; 3:1, s. 22-33
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The objectives were to identify factors that predict the use of home help services and transition into institutional care and to study to what extent care services were targeted according to the individuals’ needs. A further objective was to study whether people who had moved into institutional care facilities had received home help prior to institutionalisation. A community-dwelling sample (n=502) aged 81–100 was twice interviewed and assessed with medical examinations. Their use of public elderly care between 1994/1996 and 2000 was studied using survival analyses. Need factors, according to the Andersen Behavioural Model, were the most important predictors for the use of elderly care. Among people living alone, dementia, functional limitations, and depressive symptoms predicted the use of home help services and institutionalisation. Among non-demented cohabiting people, depressive symptoms and dependence in ADLs increased the likelihood of both home help and institutionalisation. Among cohabiting people with dementia, the effect of dementia was difficult to separate from the effects of ADL limitations and depression. Enabling factors were of importance among cohabiting people. A high level of education increased the likelihood of moving into institutional care, and informal extra-residential care increased the likelihood of both outcomes indicating that elderly care resources had not been targeted solely according to need. Predisposing factors such as age and gender were of importance only among people living alone. Basically the same factors predicted both the receipt of home help and institutionalisation. Only 4% of people living alone and 5% of those cohabiting moved to institutions without previously receiving home help.
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