| 1. |
- Acosta, R. P., et al.
(författare)
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A Model-Data Comparison of the Hydrological Response to Miocene Warmth : Leveraging the MioMIP1 Opportunistic Multi-Model Ensemble
- 2024
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Ingår i: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology. - 2572-4517 .- 2572-4525. ; 39:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Miocene (23.03-5.33 Ma) is recognized as a period with close to modern-day paleogeography, yet a much warmer climate. With large uncertainties in future hydroclimate projections, Miocene conditions illustrate a potential future analog for the Earth system. A recent opportunistic Miocene Model Intercomparison Project 1 (MioMIP1) focused on synthesizing published Miocene climate simulations and comparing them with available temperature reconstructions. Here, we build on this effort by analyzing the hydrological cycle response to Miocene forcings across early-to-middle (E2MMIO; 20.03-11.6 Ma) and middle-to-late Miocene (M2LMIO; 11.5-5.33 Ma) simulations with CO2 concentrations ranging from 200 to 850 ppm and providing a model-data comparison against available precipitation reconstructions. We find global precipitation increases by similar to 2.1 and 2.3% per degree of warming for E2MMIO and M2LMIO simulations, respectively. Models generally agree on a wetter than modern-day tropics; mid and high-latitude, however, do not agree on the sign of subtropical precipitation changes with warming. Global monsoon analysis suggests most monsoon regions, except the North American Monsoon, experience higher precipitation rates under warmer conditions. Model-data comparison shows that mean annual precipitation is underestimated by the models regardless of CO2 concentration, particularly in the mid- to high-latitudes. This suggests that the models may not be (a) resolving key processes driving the hydrological cycle response to Miocene boundary conditions and/or (b) other boundary conditions or processes not considered here are critical to reproducing Miocene hydroclimate. This study highlights the challenges in modeling and reconstructing the Miocene hydrological cycle and serves as a baseline for future coordinated MioMIP efforts. This study looks at Earth's hydrological cycle during the Miocene (23-5 million years ago). During this period, the Earth's climate was 3-7 degrees C warmer than today, with carbon dioxide (CO2) estimates ranging between 400 and 850 ppm. Understanding how the hydrological cycle responded during warmer climate conditions can give us insight into what might happen as the Earth gets warmer. We analyzed a suite of Miocene paleoclimate simulations with different CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and compared them against fossil plant data, which gives an estimate of the average annual rainfall during the period. We found that during the Miocene global rainfall increased by about 2.1%-2.3% for each degree of warming. The models agree that the tropics, mid- and high-latitude, became wetter than they are today but have lower agreement on whether subtropical areas got wetter or drier as they warmed. Compared to proxies, models consistently underestimated how much rain fell in a year, especially in the mid- to high-latitude. This illustrates the challenges in reconstructing the Miocene's hydrological cycle and suggests that the models might not fully capture the range of uncertainties associated with changes in the hydrological cycle due to warming or other factors that differentiated the Miocene. A multi-model comparison of the hydrological cycle in early-to-middle and middle-to-late Miocene simulations is conductedModels generally agree on wetter than modern tropics, middle and high latitudes, but not on the sign of subtropical precipitation changesModel-data comparison shows mean annual precipitation is underestimated by the models, particularly in the mid- to high-latitudes
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| 2. |
- Anderson, Lloyd B., et al.
(författare)
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Atmospheric CO2 Estimates for the Late Oligocene and Early Miocene Using Multi-Species Cross-Calibrations of Boron Isotopes
- 2024
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Ingår i: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology. - 2572-4517 .- 2572-4525. ; 39:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The boron isotope (δ11B) proxy for seawater pH is a tried and tested means to reconstruct atmospheric CO2 in the geologic past, but uncertainty remains over how to treat species-specific calibrations that link foraminiferal δ11B to pH estimates prior to 22 My. In addition, no δ11B-based reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 exist for wide swaths of the Oligocene (33–23 Ma), and large variability in CO2 reconstructions during this epoch based on other proxy evidence leaves climate evolution during this period relatively unconstrained. To add to our understanding of Oligocene and early Miocene climate, we generated new atmospheric CO2 estimates from new δ11B data from fossil shells of surface-dwelling planktic foraminifera from the mid-Oligocene to early Miocene (∼28–18 Ma). We estimate atmospheric CO2 of ∼680 ppm for the mid-Oligocene, which then evolves to fluctuate between ∼500–570 ppm during the late Oligocene and between ∼420–700 ppm in the early Miocene. These estimates tend to trend higher than Oligo-Miocene CO2 estimates from other proxies, although we observe good proxy agreement in the late Oligocene. Reconstructions of CO2 fall lower than estimates from paleoclimate model simulations in the early Miocene and mid Oligocene, which indicates that more proxy and/or model refinement is needed for these periods. Our species cross-calibrations, assessing δ11B, Mg/Ca, δ18O, and δ13C, are able to pinpoint and evaluate small differences in the geochemistry of surface-dwelling planktic foraminifera, lending confidence to paleoceanographers applying this approach even further back in time.
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| 3. |
- Kocken, Ilja J., et al.
(författare)
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North Atlantic Temperature Change Across the Eocene-Oligocene Transition From Clumped Isotopes
- 2024
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Ingår i: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology. - 2572-4517 .- 2572-4525. ; 39:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) (∼34 Ma) is marked by the rapid development of a semi-permanent Antarctic ice-sheet, as indicated by ice-rafted debris and a 1–1.5‰ increase in deep sea δ18O. Proxy reconstructions indicate a drop in atmospheric CO2 and global cooling. How these changes affected surface ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic and ocean water stratification remains poorly constrained. In this study, we apply clumped-isotope thermometry to well-preserved planktonic foraminifera, that are associated with lower mixed-layer to subthermocline dwelling depths from the drift sediments at international ocean discovery program Site 1411, Newfoundland, across four intervals bracketing the EOT. The thermocline/lower mixed-layer dwelling foraminifera record a cooling of 1.9 ± 3.5 K (mean ± 95% CI) across the EOT. While the cooling amplitude is similar to previous sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions, absolute temperatures (Eocene 20.0 ± 2.9°C, Oligocene 18.0 ± 2.2°C) appear colder than previous organic proxy reconstructions for the northernmost Atlantic extrapolated to this location. We discuss seasonal bias, recording depth, and appropriate consideration of paleolatitudes, all of which complicate the comparison between SST reconstructions and model output. Our subthermocline dwelling foraminifera record a larger cooling across the EOT (Eocene 19.0 ± 3.5°C, Oligocene 13.0 ± 3.2°C, cooling of 5.5 ± 4.6 K) than foraminifera from the thermocline/lower mixed-layer, consistent with global cooling and an increase in ocean stratification which may be related to the onset or intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.
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