| 1. |
- Armstrong, Ben, et al.
(författare)
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The Role of Humidity in Associations of High Temperature with Mortality : A Multicountry, Multicity Study
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Health Perspectives. - : The National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. - 0091-6765 .- 1552-9924. ; 127:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: There is strong experimental evidence that physiologic stress from high temperatures is greater if humidity is higher. However, heat indices developed to allow for this have not consistently predicted mortality better than dry-bulb temperature.Objectives: We aimed to clarify the potential contribution of humidity an addition to temperature in predicting daily mortality in summer by using a large multicountry dataset.Methods: In 445 cities in 24 countries, we fit a time-series regression model for summer mortality with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) for temperature (up to lag 3) and supplemented this with a range of terms for relative humidity (RH) and its interaction with temperature. City-specific associations were summarized using meta-analytic techniques.Results: Adding a linear term for RH to the temperature term improved fit slightly, with an increase of 23% in RH (the 99th percentile anomaly) associated with a 1.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.8, 1.3] decrease in mortality. Allowing curvature in the RH term or adding terms for interaction of RH with temperature did not improve the model fit. The humidity-related decreased risk was made up of a positive coefficient at lag 0 outweighed by negative coefficients at lags of 1–3 d. Key results were broadly robust to small model changes and replacing RH with absolute measures of humidity. Replacing temperature with apparent temperature, a metric combining humidity and temperature, reduced goodness of fit slightly.Discussion:The absence of a positive association of humidity with mortality in summer in this large multinational study is counter to expectations from physiologic studies, though consistent with previous epidemiologic studies finding little evidence for improved prediction by heat indices. The result that there was a small negative average association of humidity with mortality should be interpreted cautiously; the lag structure has unclear interpretation and suggests the need for future work to clarify.
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| 2. |
- Gasparrini, Antonio, et al.
(författare)
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Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios
- 2017
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Ingår i: The Lancet Planetary Health. - 2542-5196. ; 1:9, s. e360-e367
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates.Methods: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes.Findings: Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (-3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (-4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet.Interpretation: This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks.
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| 3. |
- Guo, Yuming, et al.
(författare)
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Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios : A multicountry time series modelling study
- 2018
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Ingår i: PLoS Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 15:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
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| 4. |
- Lee, Jae Young, et al.
(författare)
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Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
- 2019
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Ingår i: Environment International. - : Elsevier. - 0160-4120 .- 1873-6750. ; 131
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010-2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (-0.92%p/°C) and Australia (-0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.
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| 5. |
- Lewis, Kate Marie, et al.
(författare)
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Mothers education and offspring asthma risk in 10 European cohort studies
- 2017
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Ingår i: European Journal of Epidemiology. - : SPRINGER. - 0393-2990 .- 1573-7284. ; 32:9, s. 797-805
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Highly prevalent and typically beginning in childhood, asthma is a burdensome disease, yet the risk factors for this condition are not clarified. To enhance understanding, this study assessed the cohort-specific and pooled risk of maternal education on asthma in children aged 3-8 across 10 European countries. Data on 47,099 children were obtained from prospective birth cohort studies across 10 European countries. We calculated cohort-specific prevalence difference in asthma outcomes using the relative index of inequality (RII) and slope index of inequality (SII). Results from all countries were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis procedures to obtain mean RII and SII scores at the European level. Final models were adjusted for child sex, smoking during pregnancy, parity, mothers age and ethnicity. The higher the score the greater the magnitude of relative (RII, reference 1) and absolute (SII, reference 0) inequity. The pooled RII estimate for asthma risk across all cohorts was 1.46 (95% CI 1.26, 1.71) and the pooled SII estimate was 1.90 (95% CI 0.26, 3.54). Of the countries examined, France, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands had the highest prevalences of childhood asthma and the largest inequity in asthma risk. Smaller inverse associations were noted for all other countries except Italy, which presented contradictory scores, but with small effect sizes. Tests for heterogeneity yielded significant results for SII scores. Overall, offspring of mothers with a low level of education had an increased relative and absolute risk of asthma compared to offspring of high-educated mothers.
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| 6. |
- Liu, Cong, et al.
(författare)
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Ambient Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in 652 Cities
- 2019
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Ingår i: New England Journal of Medicine. - Waltham : Massachusetts Medical Society. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 381:8, s. 705-715
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The systematic evaluation of the results of time-series studies of air pollution is challenged by differences in model specification and publication bias.METHODS: We evaluated the associations of inhalable particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM10) and fine PM with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) with daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries or regions. Daily data on mortality and air pollution were collected from 652 cities in 24 countries or regions. We used overdispersed generalized additive models with random-effects meta-analysis to investigate the associations. Two-pollutant models were fitted to test the robustness of the associations. Concentration-response curves from each city were pooled to allow global estimates to be derived.RESULTS: On average, an increase of 10 μg per cubic meter in the 2-day moving average of PM10 concentration, which represents the average over the current and previous day, was associated with increases of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.50) in daily all-cause mortality, 0.36% (95% CI, 0.30 to 0.43) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0.47% (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.58) in daily respiratory mortality. The corresponding increases in daily mortality for the same change in PM2.5 concentration were 0.68% (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.77), 0.55% (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.66), and 0.74% (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.95). These associations remained significant after adjustment for gaseous pollutants. Associations were stronger in locations with lower annual mean PM concentrations and higher annual mean temperatures. The pooled concentration-response curves showed a consistent increase in daily mortality with increasing PM concentration, with steeper slopes at lower PM concentrations.CONCLUSIONS: Our data show independent associations between short-term exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 and daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in more than 600 cities across the globe. These data reinforce the evidence of a link between mortality and PM concentration established in regional and local studies. (Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and others.).
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| 7. |
- Llop, Sabrina, et al.
(författare)
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CYP3A genes and the association between prenatal methylmercury exposure and neurodevelopment
- 2017
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Ingår i: Environment International. - : Elsevier BV. - 0160-4120 .- 1873-6750. ; 105, s. 34-42
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Results on the association between prenatal exposure to methylmercury (MeHg) and child neuropsychological development are heterogeneous. Underlying genetic differences across study populations could contribute to this varied response to MeHg. Studies in Drosophila have identified the cytochrome p450 3A (CYP3A) family as candidate MeHg susceptibility genes. Objectives We evaluated whether genetic variation in CYP3A genes influences the association between prenatal exposure to MeHg and child neuropsychological development. Methods The study population included 2639 children from three birth cohort studies: two subcohorts in Seychelles (SCDS) (n = 1160, 20 and 30 months of age, studied during the years 2001–2012), two subcohorts from Spain (INMA) (n = 625, 14 months of age, 2003–2009), and two subcohorts from Italy and Greece (PHIME) (n = 854, 18 months of age, 2006–2011). Total mercury, as a surrogate of MeHg, was analyzed in maternal hair and/or cord blood samples. Neuropsychological development was evaluated using Bayley Scales of Infant Development (BSID). Three functional polymorphisms in the CYP3A family were analyzed: rs2257401 (CYP3A7), rs776746 (CYP3A5), and rs2740574 (CYP3A4). Results There was no association between CYP3A polymorphisms and cord mercury concentrations. The scores for the BSID mental scale improved with increasing cord blood mercury concentrations for carriers of the most active alleles (β[95% CI]: = 2.9[1.53,4.27] for CYP3A7 rs2257401 GG + GC, 2.51[1.04,3.98] for CYP3A5 rs776746 AA + AG and 2.31[0.12,4.50] for CYP3A4 rs2740574 GG + AG). This association was near the null for CYP3A7 CC, CYP3A5 GG and CYP3A4 AA genotypes. The interaction between the CYP3A genes and total mercury was significant (p < 0.05) in European cohorts only. Conclusions Our results suggest that the polymorphisms in CYP3A genes may modify the response to dietary MeHg exposure during early life development.
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| 8. |
- Middeldorp, Christel M., et al.
(författare)
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The Early Growth Genetics (EGG) and EArly Genetics and Lifecourse Epidemiology (EAGLE) consortia : design, results and future prospects
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Journal of Epidemiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0393-2990 .- 1573-7284. ; 34:3, s. 279-300
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The impact of many unfavorable childhood traits or diseases, such as low birth weight and mental disorders, is not limited to childhood and adolescence, as they are also associated with poor outcomes in adulthood, such as cardiovascular disease. Insight into the genetic etiology of childhood and adolescent traits and disorders may therefore provide new perspectives, not only on how to improve wellbeing during childhood, but also how to prevent later adverse outcomes. To achieve the sample sizes required for genetic research, the Early Growth Genetics (EGG) and EArly Genetics and Lifecourse Epidemiology (EAGLE) consortia were established. The majority of the participating cohorts are longitudinal population-based samples, but other cohorts with data on early childhood phenotypes are also involved. Cohorts often have a broad focus and collect(ed) data on various somatic and psychiatric traits as well as environmental factors. Genetic variants have been successfully identified for multiple traits, for example, birth weight, atopic dermatitis, childhood BMI, allergic sensitization, and pubertal growth. Furthermore, the results have shown that genetic factors also partly underlie the association with adult traits. As sample sizes are still increasing, it is expected that future analyses will identify additional variants. This, in combination with the development of innovative statistical methods, will provide detailed insight on the mechanisms underlying the transition from childhood to adult disorders. Both consortia welcome new collaborations. Policies and contact details are available from the corresponding authors of this manuscript and/or the consortium websites.
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| 9. |
- Ruiz, Milagros, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of Low Maternal Education on Early Childhood Overweight and Obesity in Europe
- 2016
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Ingår i: Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology. - : WILEY-BLACKWELL. - 0269-5022 .- 1365-3016. ; 30:3, s. 274-284
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundComparable evidence on adiposity inequalities in early life is lacking across a range of European countries. This study investigates whether low maternal education is associated with overweight and obesity risk in children from distinct European settings during early childhood. MethodsProspective data of 45 413 children from 11 European cohorts were used. Childrens height and weight obtained at ages 4-7 years were used to assess prevalent overweight and obesity according to the International Obesity Task Force definition. The Relative/Slope Indices of Inequality (RII/SII) were estimated within each cohort and by gender to investigate adiposity risk among children born to mothers with low education as compared to counterparts born to mothers with high education. Individual-data meta-analyses were conducted to obtain aggregate estimates and to assess heterogeneity between cohorts. ResultsLow maternal education yielded a substantial risk of early childhood adiposity across 11 European countries. Low maternal education yielded a mean risk ratio of 1.58 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34, 1.85) and a mean risk difference of 7.78% (5.34, 10.22) in early childhood overweight, respectively, measured by the RII and SII. Early childhood obesity risk by low maternal education was as substantial for all cohorts combined (RII = 2.61 (2.10, 3.23)) and (SII = 4.01% (3.14, 4.88)). Inequalities in early childhood adiposity were consistent among boys, but varied among girls in a few cohorts. ConclusionsConsiderable inequalities in overweight and obesity are evident among European children in early life. Tackling early childhood adiposity is necessary to promote childrens immediate health and well-being and throughout the life course.
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| 10. |
- Sera, Francesco, et al.
(författare)
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How urban characteristics affect vulnerability to heat and cold : a multi-country analysis
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press. - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 48:4, s. 1101-1112
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The health burden associated with temperature is expected to increase due to a warming climate. Populations living in cities are likely to be particularly at risk, but the role of urban characteristics in modifying the direct effects of temperature on health is still unclear. In this contribution, we used a multi-country dataset to study effect modification of temperature-mortality relationships by a range of city-specific indicators.METHODS: We collected ambient temperature and mortality daily time-series data for 340 cities in 22 countries, in periods between 1985 and 2014. Standardized measures of demographic, socio-economic, infrastructural and environmental indicators were derived from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Regional and Metropolitan Database. We used distributed lag non-linear and multivariate meta-regression models to estimate fractions of mortality attributable to heat and cold (AF%) in each city, and to evaluate the effect modification of each indicator across cities.RESULTS: Heat- and cold-related deaths amounted to 0.54% (95% confidence interval: 0.49 to 0.58%) and 6.05% (5.59 to 6.36%) of total deaths, respectively. Several city indicators modify the effect of heat, with a higher mortality impact associated with increases in population density, fine particles (PM2.5), gross domestic product (GDP) and Gini index (a measure of income inequality), whereas higher levels of green spaces were linked with a decreased effect of heat.CONCLUSIONS: This represents the largest study to date assessing the effect modification of temperature-mortality relationships. Evidence from this study can inform public-health interventions and urban planning under various climate-change and urban-development scenarios.
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