| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 3. |
- Scolnic, D., et al.
(författare)
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How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?
- 2018
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 852:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of 103Gpc(-3) yr(-1), consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is z = 0.8 for WFIRST, z = 0.25 for LSST, and z = 0.04 for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.
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| 4. |
- Abdalla, H., et al.
(författare)
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Gamma-ray blazar spectra with HESS II mono analysis : The case of PKS2155-304 and PG1553+113
- 2017
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 600
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. The addition of a 28 m Cherenkov telescope (CT5) to the H.E.S.S. array extended the experiment's sensitivity to lower energies. The lowest energy threshold is obtained using monoscopic analysis of data taken with CT5, providing access to gamma-ray energies below 100 GeV for small zenith angle observations. Such an extension of the instrument's energy range is particularly beneficial for studies of active galactic nuclei with soft spectra, as expected for those at a redshift >= 0.5. The high-frequency peaked BL Lac objects PKS 2155-304 (z = 0.116) and PG 1553 + 113 (0.43 < z < 0.58) are among the brightest objects in the gamma-ray sky, both showing clear signatures of gamma-ray absorption at E > 100 GeV interpreted as being due to interactions with the extragalactic background light (EBL). Aims. The aims of this work are twofold: to demonstrate the monoscopic analysis of CT5 data with a low energy threshold, and to obtain accurate measurements of the spectral energy distributions (SED) of PKS 2155-304 and PG 1553 + 113 near their SED peaks at energies approximate to 100 GeV. Methods. Multiple observational campaigns of PKS 2155 304 and PG 1553 + 113 were conducted during 2013 and 2014 using the full H.E.S.S. II instrument (CT1-5). A monoscopic analysis of the data taken with the new CT5 telescope was developed along with an investigation into the systematic uncertainties on the spectral parameters which are derived from this analysis. Results. Using the data from CT5, the energy spectra of PKS 2155 304 and PG 1553 + 113 were reconstructed down to conservative threshold energies of 80 GeV for PKS 2155 304, which transits near zenith, and 110 GeV for the more northern PG 1553 + 113. The measured spectra, well fitted in both cases by a log-parabola spectral model ( with a 5.0 similar to statistical preference for non-zero curvature for PKS 2155 304 and 4.5 sigma for PG 1553+113), were found consistent with spectra derived from contemporaneous Fermi-LAT data, indicating a sharp break in the observed spectra of both sources at E approximate to 100 GeV. When corrected for EBL absorption, the intrinsic H.E.S.S. II mono and Fermi-LAT spectrum of PKS 2155 304 was found to show significant curvature. For PG 1553+113, however, no significant detection of curvature in the intrinsic spectrum could be found within statistical and systematic uncertainties.
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| 5. |
- Mayer, Manuel, et al.
(författare)
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Constraints on particle acceleration in SS433/W50 from MAGIC and HESS observations
- 2018
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 612
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. The large jet kinetic power and non-thermal processes occurring in the microquasar SS 433 make this source a good candidate for a very high-energy (VHE) gamma-ray emitter. Gamma-ray fluxes above the sensitivity limits of current Cherenkov telescopes have been predicted for both the central X-ray binary system and the interaction regions of SS 433 jets with the surrounding W50 nebula. Non-thermal emission at lower energies has been previously reported, indicating that efficient particle acceleration is taking place in the system. Aims. We explore the capability of SS 433 to emit VHE gamma rays during periods in which the expected flux attenuation due to periodic eclipses (P-orb similar to 13.1 days) and precession of the circumstellar disk (P-pre similar to 162 days) periodically covering the central binary system is expected to be at its minimum. The eastern and western SS 433/W50 interaction regions are also examined using the whole data set available. We aim to constrain some theoretical models previously developed for this system with our observations. Methods. We made use of dedicated observations from the Major Atmospheric Gamma Imaging Cherenkov telescopes (MAGIC) and High Energy Spectroscopic System (H.E.S.S.) of SS 433 taken from 2006 to 2011. These observation were combined for the first time and accounted for a total effective observation time of 16.5 h, which were scheduled considering the expected phases of minimum absorption of the putative VHE emission. Gamma-ray attenuation does not affect the jet/medium interaction regions. In this case, the analysis of a larger data set amounting to similar to 40-80 h, depending on the region, was employed. Results. No evidence of VHE gamma-ray emission either from the central binary system or from the eastern/western interaction regions was found. Upper limits were computed for the combined data set. Differential fluxes from the central system are found to be less than or similar to 10(-12)-10(-13) TeV-1 cm(-2) s(-1) in an energy interval ranging from similar to few x 100 GeV to similar to few TeV. Integral flux limits down to similar to 10(-12)-10(-13) ph cm(-2) s(-1) and similar to 10(-13)-10(-14) ph cm(-2) s(-1) are obtained at 300 and 800 GeV, respectively. Our results are used to place constraints on the particle acceleration fraction at the inner jet regions and on the physics of the jet/medium interactions. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that the fraction of the jet kinetic power that is transferred to relativistic protons must be relatively small in SS 433, q(p) <= 2.5 x 10(-5), to explain the lack of TeV and neutrino emission from the central system. At the SS 433/W50 interface, the presence of magnetic fields greater than or similar to 10 mu G is derived assuming a synchrotron origin for the observed X-ray emission. This also implies the presence of high-energy electrons with E-e up to 50 TeV, preventing an efficient production of gamma-ray fluxes in these interaction regions.
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| 6. |
- Petroff, E., et al.
(författare)
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A polarized fast radio burst at low Galactic latitude
- 2017
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford Academic. - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 469:4, s. 4465-4482
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report on the discovery of a new fast radio burst (FRB), FRB 150215, with the Parkes radio telescope on 2015 February 15. The burst was detected in real time with a dispersion measure (DM) of 1105.6 +/- 0.8 pc cm(-3), a pulse duration of 2.8(-0.5)(+1.2) ms, and a measured peak flux density assuming that the burst was at beam centre of 0.7(-0.1)(+0.2) Jy. The FRB originated at a Galactic longitude and latitude of 24.66 degrees, 5.28 degrees and 25 degrees away from the Galactic Center. The burst was found to be 43 +/- 5 per cent linearly polarized with a rotation measure (RM) in the range -9 < RM < 12 rad m(-2) (95 per cent confidence level), consistent with zero. The burst was followed up with 11 telescopes to search for radio, optical, X-ray, gamma-ray and neutrino emission. Neither transient nor variable emission was found to be associated with the burst and no repeat pulses have been observed in 17.25 h of observing. The sightline to the burst is close to the Galactic plane and the observed physical properties of FRB 150215 demonstrate the existence of sight lines of anomalously low RM for a given electron column density. The Galactic RM foreground may approach a null value due to magnetic field reversals along the line of sight, a decreased total electron column density from the Milky Way, or some combination of these effects. A lower Galactic DM contribution might explain why this burst was detectable whereas previous searches at low latitude have had lower detection rates than those out of the plane.
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| 7. |
- Albert, A., et al.
(författare)
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SEARCHING FOR DARK MATTER ANNIHILATION IN RECENTLY DISCOVERED MILKY WAY SATELLITES WITH FERMI-LAT
- 2017
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 834:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We search for excess gamma-ray emission coincident with the positions of confirmed and candidate Milky Way satellite galaxies using six years of data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). Our sample of 45 stellar systems includes 28 kinematically confirmed dark-matter-dominated dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs) and 17 recently discovered systems that have photometric characteristics consistent with the population of known dSphs. For each of these targets, the relative predicted gamma-ray flux due to dark matter annihilation is taken from kinematic analysis if available, and estimated from a distance-based scaling relation otherwise, assuming that the stellar systems are DM-dominated dSphs. LAT data coincident with four of the newly discovered targets show a slight preference (each similar to 2 sigma local) for gamma-ray emission in excess of the background. However, the ensemble of derived gamma-ray flux upper limits for individual targets is consistent with the expectation from analyzing random blank-sky regions, and a combined analysis of the population of stellar systems yields no globally significant excess (global significance < 1 sigma). Our analysis has increased sensitivity compared to the analysis of 15 confirmed dSphs by Ackermann et al. The observed constraints on the DM annihilation cross section are statistically consistent with the background expectation, improving by a factor of similar to 2 for large DM masses (m(DM, b<(b)over bar>) greater than or similar to 1 TeV and m(DM, tau+tau-) greater than or similar to 70 GeV) and weakening by a factor of similar to 1.5 at lower masses relative to previously observed limits.
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| 8. |
- Vedantham, H. K., et al.
(författare)
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Lunar occultation of the diffuse radio sky : LOFAR measurements between 35 and 80 MHz
- 2015
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 450, s. 2291-2305
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present radio observations of the Moon between 35 and 80 MHz to demonstrate a novel technique of interferometrically measuring large-scale diffuse emission extending far beyond the primary beam (global signal) for the first time. In particular, we show that (i) the Moon appears as a negative-flux source at frequencies 35 < ν < 80 MHz since it is ‘colder’ than the diffuse Galactic background it occults, (ii) using the (negative) flux of the lunar disc, we can reconstruct the spectrum of the diffuse Galactic emission with the lunar thermal emission as a reference, and (iii) that reflected RFI (radio-frequency interference) is concentrated at the centre of the lunar disc due to specular nature of reflection, and can be independently measured. Our RFI measurements show that (i) Moon-based Cosmic Dawn experiments must design for an Earth-isolation of better than 80 dB to achieve an RFI temperature <1 mK, (ii) Moon-reflected RFI contributes to a dipole temperature less than 20 mK for Earth-based Cosmic Dawn experiments, (iii) man-made satellite-reflected RFI temperature exceeds 20 mK if the aggregate scattering cross-section of visible satellites exceeds 175 m2 at 800 km height, or 15 m2 at 400 km height. Currently, our diffuse background spectrum is limited by sidelobe confusion on short baselines (10–15 per cent level). Further refinement of our technique may yield constraints on the redshifted global 21 cm signal from Cosmic Dawn (40 > z > 12) and the Epoch of Reionization (12 > z > 5).
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Zhang, Y., et al.
(författare)
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Galaxies in X-ray selected clusters and groups in Dark Energy Survey data - II. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of the red-sequence galaxy luminosity function
- 2019
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : OXFORD UNIV PRESS. - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 488:1, s. 1-17
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using similar to 100 X-ray selected clusters in the Dark Energy Survey Science Verification data, we constrain the luminosity function ( LF) of cluster red-sequence galaxies as a function of redshift. This is the first homogeneous optical/X-ray sample large enough to constrain the evolution of the LF simultaneously in redshift ( 0.1 < z < 1.05) and cluster mass ( 13.5 <= log(10)( M-200crit) similar to< 15.0). We pay particular attention to completeness issues and the detection limit of the galaxy sample. We then apply a hierarchical Bayesian model to fit the cluster galaxy LFs via a Schechter function, including its characteristic break ( m*) to a faint end power-law slope ( alpha). Our method enables us to avoid known issues in similar analyses based on stacking or binning the clusters. We find weak and statistically insignificant (similar to 1.9 sigma) evolution in the faint end slope alpha versus redshift. We also find no dependence in alpha or m* with the X-ray inferred cluster masses. However, the amplitude of the LF as a function of cluster mass is constrained to similar to 20 per cent precision. As a by-product of our algorithm, we utilize the correlation between the LF and cluster mass to provide an improved estimate of the individual cluster masses as well as the scatter in true mass given the X-ray inferred masses. This technique can be applied to a larger sample of X-ray or optically selected clusters from the Dark Energy Survey, significantly improving the sensitivity of the analysis.
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