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- Abrahamsson, Marcus, et al.
(författare)
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Risk- and vulnerability analyses in crisis management of extreme events - A pilot study
- 2004
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Ingår i: Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, vol 1- 6. - 9781852338275 ; , s. 644-649
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper some findings from a pilot study regarding the use of risk- and vulnerability analysis in society's management of extreme events is presented. The study consisted of two major parts. The first part was an interview study with the main objective to generate a preliminary overview of methods and procedures used by 9 selected Swedish governmental agencies in their risk- and crisis management work. The second part, tightly connected to the interview study, was based on literature studies and generated a more general overview of existing risk- and crisis management strategies, risk- and vulnerability analysis methods etc., covering a wide range of government agency areas/sectors. The pilot study was the "starting point" for a long term research program in this field.
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- Abrahamsson, Marcus
(författare)
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Treatment of Uncertainty in Risk Based Regulations and Standards for Risk Analysis
- 2000
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The role of quantitative risk analysis as a foundation for decision making, regarding hazardous activities and establishments, has gained increased importance during the last decades. When performing a quantitative risk analysis, a wide range of uncertainties will inevitably be introduced during the process. The impact of these uncertainties must somehow be addressed if the analysis is to serve as a tool in the decision-making process. The objective of this report is to present a summary of how issues of uncertainty are dealt with in existing safety regulations, and in existing standards for risk analysis and management. Using this summary as a guide, various aspects of uncertainty are discussed. E.g. what role will uncertainty play in the decision-making process? Is there a need for identifying and separating different kinds of uncertainty (e.g. aleatory, or stochastic uncertainty, vs. epistemic, or knowledge based uncertainty) while creating the foundation for decision-making? Will we always be dependent on expert judgement while dealing with these issues? The work behind this paper is the first step in a research project with the objective to produce the basis for a Swedish Standard regarding treatment of uncertainties in quantitative risk analyses. The project is to be completed by the end of the year 2001.
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- Abrahamsson, Marcus
(författare)
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Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk Analysis - Characterisation and Methods of Treatment
- 2002
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The fundamental problems related to uncertainty in quantitative risk analyses, used in decision making in safety-related issues (for instance, in land use planning and licensing procedures for hazardous establishments and activities) are presented and discussed, together with the different types of uncertainty that are introduced in the various stages of an analysis. A survey of methods for the practical treatment of uncertainty, with emphasis on the kind of information that is needed for the different methods, and the kind of results they produce, is also presented. Furthermore, a thorough discussion of the arguments for and against each of the methods is given, and of different levels of treatment based on the problem under consideration. Recommendations for future research and standardisation efforts are proposed.
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