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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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- Naghavi, M, et al.
(författare)
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Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: JAMA. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 1538-3598 .- 0098-7484. ; 320:8, s. 792-814
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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- Irgens, I., et al.
(författare)
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Telehealth for people with spinal cord injury: a narrative review
- 2018
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Ingår i: Spinal Cord. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1362-4393 .- 1476-5624. ; 56:7, s. 643-655
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Study design Narrative review. Objectives To find and discuss what has been published about the use of telehealth, on people with spinal cord injury (teleSCI). Method Cochrane Library, Ovid Medline, EMBASE and CINAHL, from 1996 till June 2017 have been searched. Searches in PsycINFO, from 1996 till September 2017, were included afterwards. Extracted data include studies in English language, containing information about spinal cord injury and disorders, and telehealth. Literature reviews, systematic reviews, and studies containing other types of neurological disorders, were excluded. Studies were grouped based on how and to whom telehealth was offered. Results Twenty nine studies were included in the review. They were categorized according to the way teleSCI was provided, and to what modality was used. Some studies utilized more than one modality. TeleSCI seems to be favorable concerning treatment and follow-up, as well as favorable socioeconomically and environmentally. The studies spanned across several aims and outcomes. There was also heterogeneity in number of participants, the differences in modalities, and in the level of evidence. Thus it was challenging to compare studies and make future recommendations. Conclusions TeleSCI can be used for examination and guiding purposes. Further research is warranted to evaluate optimal utilization, methodology and efficacy.
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- Jones, Kelly M., et al.
(författare)
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Determining the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of a stroke instructional and educational DVD in a multinational context : a randomized controlled pilot study
- 2018
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Ingår i: Clinical Rehabilitation. - : SAGE Publications. - 0269-2155 .- 1477-0873. ; 32:8, s. 1086-1097
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To assess the feasibility of conducting a randomized controlled trial of an instructional and educational stroke DVD and determine the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of this intervention in a multinational context. Design: Non-funded, pilot randomized controlled trial of intervention versus usual care. Setting: International, multicentre, community-based. Participants: Community-living adults up to three years post stroke with moderate to severe disability and their nominated informal caregivers. Interventions: Intervention patients viewed and practised rehabilitation techniques demonstrated in the DVD over six weeks. Main measures: Trial feasibility by number of active recruitment sites, recruitment efficiency, randomization and follow-up. Intervention feasibility by patient and caregiver impressions. Preliminary efficacy by the quality of life – 5-level EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) health status measure, General Health Questionnaire and Centre for Epidemiological Studies–Depression at two months. Results: In total, 14 recruitment sites were established across eight countries. Recruitment was achieved at nine (64%) sites. Over 16 months, 66 participants were recruited (mean (SD) age = 63.5 (12.47) years) and randomized to intervention (n = 34) and control (n = 32) groups. In total, 54 (82%) completed a follow-up assessment. Patient and/or caregiver comments about the benefits and barriers to accessing the intervention were mixed. There were no significant between-group differences in outcomes at two months (P > 0.05). Conclusion: Conducting a multinational trial of a stroke DVD requires full funding. The intervention was acceptable to some patients and their caregivers, yet a generalized education approach did not fully meet their needs and/or expectations. A more individualized method may be required to meet peoples’ changing needs during stroke recovery.
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