| 1. |
- Dimmock, Andrew P., et al.
(författare)
-
Modeling the Geomagnetic Response to the September 2017 Space Weather Event Over Fennoscandia Using the Space Weather Modeling Framework : Studying the Impacts of Spatial Resolution
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Space Weather. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 1542-7390. ; 19:5
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We must be able to predict and mitigate against geomagnetically induced current (GIC) effects to minimize socio-economic impacts. This study employs the space weather modeling framework (SWMF) to model the geomagnetic response over Fennoscandia to the September 7-8, 2017 event. Of key importance to this study is the effects of spatial resolution in terms of regional forecasts and improved GIC modeling results. Therefore, we ran the model at comparatively low, medium, and high spatial resolutions. The virtual magnetometers from each model run are compared with observations from the IMAGE magnetometer network across various latitudes and over regional-scales. The virtual magnetometer data from the SWMF are coupled with a local ground conductivity model which is used to calculate the geoelectric field and estimate GICs in a Finnish natural gas pipeline. This investigation has lead to several important results in which higher resolution yielded: (1) more realistic amplitudes and timings of GICs, (2) higher amplitude geomagnetic disturbances across latitudes, and (3) increased regional variations in terms of differences between stations. Despite this, substorms remain a significant challenge to surface magnetic field prediction from global magnetohydrodynamic modeling. For example, in the presence of multiple large substorms, the associated large-amplitude depressions were not captured, which caused the largest model-data deviations. The results from this work are of key importance to both modelers and space weather operators. Particularly when the goal is to obtain improved regional forecasts of geomagnetic disturbances and/or more realistic estimates of the geoelectric field.
|
|
| 2. |
- Boynton, R. J., et al.
(författare)
-
System Identification of Local Time Electron Fluencies at Geostationary Orbit
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Space Physics. - 2169-9380 .- 2169-9402. ; 125:11
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The electron fluxes at geostationary orbit measured by Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) 13, 14, and 15 spacecraft are modeled using system identification techniques. System identification, similar to machine learning, uses input-output data to train a model, which can then be used to provide forecasts. This study employs the nonlinear autoregressive moving average exogenous technique to deduce the electron flux models. The electron fluxes at geostationary orbit are known to vary in space and time, making it a spatiotemporal system, which complicates the modeling using system identification/machine learning approach. Therefore, the electron flux data are binned into 24 magnetic local time (MLT), and a separate model is developed for each of the 24 MLT bins. MLT models are developed for six of the GOES 13, 14, and 15 electron flux energy channels (75 keV, 150 keV, 275 keV, 475 keV, >800 keV, and >2 MeV). The models are assessed on separate test data by prediction efficiency (PE) and correlation coefficient (CC) and found these to vary by MLT and electron energy. The lowest energy of 75 keV at the midnight sector had a PE of 36.0 and CC of 59.3, which increased on the dayside to a PE of 66.9 and CC of 81.6. These metrics increased to the >2 MeV model, which had a low PE and CC of 63.0 and 81.8 on the nightside to a high of 80.3 and 90.8 on the dayside.
|
|
