| 1. |
|
|
| 2. |
|
|
| 3. |
- Ikuta, K. S., et al.
(författare)
-
Global mortality associated with 33 bacterial pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 400:10369, s. 2221-2248
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Reducing the burden of death due to infection is an urgent global public health priority. Previous studies have estimated the number of deaths associated with drug-resistant infections and sepsis and found that infections remain a leading cause of death globally. Understanding the global burden of common bacterial pathogens (both susceptible and resistant to antimicrobials) is essential to identify the greatest threats to public health. To our knowledge, this is the first study to present global comprehensive estimates of deaths associated with 33 bacterial pathogens across 11 major infectious syndromes. Methods We estimated deaths associated with 33 bacterial genera or species across 11 infectious syndromes in 2019 using methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, in addition to a subset of the input data described in the Global Burden of Antimicrobial Resistance 2019 study. This study included 343 million individual records or isolates covering 11 361 study-location-years. We used three modelling steps to estimate the number of deaths associated with each pathogen: deaths in which infection had a role, the fraction of deaths due to infection that are attributable to a given infectious syndrome, and the fraction of deaths due to an infectious syndrome that are attributable to a given pathogen. Estimates were produced for all ages and for males and females across 204 countries and territories in 2019. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for final estimates of deaths and infections associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens following standard GBD methods by taking the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest. Findings From an estimated 13.7 million (95% UI 10.9-17.1) infection-related deaths in 2019, there were 7.7 million deaths (5.7-10.2) associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens (both resistant and susceptible to antimicrobials) across the 11 infectious syndromes estimated in this study. We estimated deaths associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens to comprise 13.6% (10.2-18.1) of all global deaths and 56.2% (52.1-60.1) of all sepsis-related deaths in 2019. Five leading pathogens-Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa-were responsible for 54.9% (52.9-56.9) of deaths among the investigated bacteria. The deadliest infectious syndromes and pathogens varied by location and age. The age-standardised mortality rate associated with these bacterial pathogens was highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, with 230 deaths (185-285) per 100 000 population, and lowest in the high-income super-region, with 52.2 deaths (37.4-71.5) per 100 000 population. S aureus was the leading bacterial cause of death in 135 countries and was also associated with the most deaths in individuals older than 15 years, globally. Among children younger than 5 years, S pneumoniae was the pathogen associated with the most deaths. In 2019, more than 6 million deaths occurred as a result of three bacterial infectious syndromes, with lower respiratory infections and bloodstream infections each causing more than 2 million deaths and peritoneal and intra-abdominal infections causing more than 1 million deaths. Interpretation The 33 bacterial pathogens that we investigated in this study are a substantial source of health loss globally, with considerable variation in their distribution across infectious syndromes and locations. Compared with GBD Level 3 underlying causes of death, deaths associated with these bacteria would rank as the second leading cause of death globally in 2019; hence, they should be considered an urgent priority for intervention within the global health community. Strategies to address the burden of bacterial infections include infection prevention, optimised use of antibiotics, improved capacity for microbiological analysis, vaccine development, and improved and more pervasive use of available vaccines. These estimates can be used to help set priorities for vaccine need, demand, and development. Copyright (c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
|
|
| 4. |
|
|
| 5. |
|
|
| 6. |
|
|
| 7. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
-
- 2020
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
|
|
| 8. |
|
|
| 9. |
- Hamaus, N., et al.
(författare)
-
Euclid : Forecasts from redshift-space distortions and the Alcock-Paczynski test with cosmic voids
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 658
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Euclid is poised to survey galaxies across a cosmological volume of unprecedented size, providing observations of more than a billion objects distributed over a third of the full sky. Approximately 20 million of these galaxies will have their spectroscopy available, allowing us to map the three-dimensional large-scale structure of the Universe in great detail. This paper investigates prospects for the detection of cosmic voids therein and the unique benefit they provide for cosmological studies. In particular, we study the imprints of dynamic (redshift-space) and geometric (Alcock-Paczynski) distortions of average void shapes and their constraining power on the growth of structure and cosmological distance ratios. To this end, we made use of the Flagship mock catalog, a state-of-the-art simulation of the data expected to be observed with Euclid. We arranged the data into four adjacent redshift bins, each of which contains about 11000 voids and we estimated the stacked void-galaxy cross-correlation function in every bin. Fitting a linear-theory model to the data, we obtained constraints on f/b and DMH, where f is the linear growth rate of density fluctuations, b the galaxy bias, D-M the comoving angular diameter distance, and H the Hubble rate. In addition, we marginalized over two nuisance parameters included in our model to account for unknown systematic effects in the analysis. With this approach, Euclid will be able to reach a relative precision of about 4% on measurements of f/b and 0.5% on DMH in each redshift bin. Better modeling or calibration of the nuisance parameters may further increase this precision to 1% and 0.4%, respectively. Our results show that the exploitation of cosmic voids in Euclid will provide competitive constraints on cosmology even as a stand-alone probe. For example, the equation-of-state parameter, w, for dark energy will be measured with a precision of about 10%, consistent with previous more approximate forecasts.
|
|
| 10. |
- Pezzotta, A., et al.
(författare)
-
Euclid preparation XLI. Galaxy power spectrum modelling in real space
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 687
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We investigate the accuracy of the perturbative galaxy bias expansion in view of the forthcoming analysis of the Euclid spectroscopic galaxy samples. We compare the performance of a Eulerian galaxy bias expansion using state-of-the-art prescriptions from the effective field theory of large-scale structure (EFTofLSS) with a hybrid approach based on Lagrangian perturbation theory and high-resolution simulations. These models are benchmarked against comoving snapshots of the flagship I N-body simulation at z = (0.9, 1.2, 1.5, 1.8), which have been populated with H alpha galaxies leading to catalogues of millions of objects within a volume of about 58 h(-3) Gpc(3). Our analysis suggests that both models can be used to provide a robust inference of the parameters (h, omega c) in the redshift range under consideration, with comparable constraining power. We additionally determine the range of validity of the EFTofLSS model in terms of scale cuts and model degrees of freedom. From these tests, it emerges that the standard third-order Eulerian bias expansion - which includes local and non-local bias parameters, a matter counter term, and a correction to the shot-noise contribution - can accurately describe the full shape of the real-space galaxy power spectrum up to the maximum wavenumber of k(max) = 0.45 h Mpc(-1), and with a measurement precision of well below the percentage level. Fixing either of the tidal bias parameters to physically motivated relations still leads to unbiased cosmological constraints, and helps in reducing the severity of projection effects due to the large dimensionality of the model. We finally show how we repeated our analysis assuming a volume that matches the expected footprint of Euclid, but without considering observational effects, such as purity and completeness, showing that we can get constraints on the combination (h, omega c) that are consistent with the fiducial values to better than the 68% confidence interval over this range of scales and redshifts.
|
|
