| 1. |
- Almström, Peter, 1980-
(författare)
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Three essays on transport CBA uncertainty
- 2015
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) has for a long time been used in transport planning, but it is often questioned. One main argument against CBA is that the results depend largely on assumptions regarding one or a few input factors, as for example the future fuel price or valuation of CO2 emissions.The three papers included in this thesis investigate some aspects of uncertainty in transport CBA calculations. The two first papers explore how changes in input data assumptions affect the CBA ranking of six rail and road investments in Stockholm. The first paper deals with the effect of different land-use assumptions while the second deals with the influence of economic growth, driving cost and public transport fare. The third paper investigates how alternative formulations of the public transport mode choice and route choice affect travel flows, ticket revenues and consumer surplus. These are important factors previously known to affect CBA results.The findings of the first two papers suggest that CBA results are robust concerning different land-use scenarios and single input factors. No change in rank between a road and a rail object is observed in the performed model calculations, and only one change between two road objects. The fact that CBA results seem robust regarding input assumptions supports the use CBA as a tool for selecting transport investments. The results in the third paper indicate that if there is detailed interest in, for example, number of boardings and ticket income from a certain transit line, or the total benefit of a price change, a more detailed formulation of the public transport mode choice and route choice will provide more reliable results. On the other hand, this formulation requires substantially more data on the transit line and price structure than the conventional formulation used in Swedish transport planning, especially in areas with many different pricing systems.
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| 2. |
- Anderstig, Christer, et al.
(författare)
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Congestion Charges and Labour Market Imperfections
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Transport Economics and Policy. - : UNIV BATH. - 0022-5258 .- 1754-5951. ; 50, s. 113-131
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Standard cost-benefit analyses of transport policy measures will not capture all benefits and losses if there are labour market imperfections. In the case of congestion charges, theoretical analyses have raised concerns that these effects may constitute considerable losses, possibly to the extent that aggregate welfare is reduced, contrary to conventional wisdom. We investigate this by estimating the effects on labour income of the Stockholm congestion charges, using an estimated relationship between accessibility and income. Results show that effects on labour income are, in fact, positive. It turns out to be crucial that the model accounts for value-of-time heterogeneity.
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| 3. |
- Berglund, Christofer, 1985-
(författare)
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Borders and Belonging : Nation-Building in Georgia's Armenian and Azerbaijani Ethno-Regions, 2004–2012
- 2016
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Since the fall of the Soviet Union, scholars researching ethnic politics have approached the South Caucasus as a testing ground for theories of separatism and conflict. But the 2003 Rose Revolution brought a new generation of politicians to power in Georgia. President Mikheil Saakashvili distanced himself from the ethnic nationalism of the past, which had poisoned relations between Georgians and their Armenian and Azerbaijani compatriots. The incoming authorities instead sought to foster an inclusive nationalism, wherein belonging hinged on speaking the state language and all Georgian-speakers, regardless of origin, were to be equals.This thesis investigates this nation-building project and its influence on the integration of Georgia's Armenian and Azerbaijani borderlands. I first examine the mode through which these peripheries were incorporated into post-Soviet Georgia. Since Armenians controlled "their own" domain to a greater extent than the Azerbaijanis, I infer that the former were absorbed along integralist and the latter along colonial lines. Moving to the time-period after the Rose Revolution, I next explore if Georgian officials and Georgian adolescents were tolerant towards Georgian-speaking minorities. With the help of elite interviews and a socio-linguistic experiment (n = 792), I reveal that officials and adolescents were open to integrated Armenians and Azerbaijanis alike. I then proceed to inspect the centre's nationalising agencies and their efforts to incentivise minorities to interact with Georgians, and to use the state language during these contacts. Last but not least, I turn to the reactions this nation-building project elicited in the borderlands. On the basis of interviews with local elites and a socio-linguistic experiment involving Armenian and Azerbaijani adolescents (n = 434; n = 483), I discovered sharp differences: Armenians reacted with defiance and Azerbaijanis with compliance.These findings augment our knowledge of ethno-linguistic stereotypes in the Caucasus. They also demonstrate that inclusive nation-building projects can inspire minorities to integrate – despite adverse circumstances – but hint at one condition conducive to this end. Armenians perceived the state language as a battering ram against "their own" domain, while Azerbaijanis saw it as a tool to escape their isolation. This within-country comparison suggests that similar nation-building projects can trigger different reactions in integralist and colonial borderlands.
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| 4. |
- Kristoffersson, Ida, 1980-, et al.
(författare)
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Estimation of large-scale tour generation model taking travellers' daily tour pattern into account
- 2019
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Tour generation is conventionally modelled separately per tour purpose. Tours with different purposes are however not generated independently of each other in reality. For example, few travellers conduct more than three tours per day. In this paper, the conventional tour generation model is extended into estimation of a model that takes travellers’ daily tour pattern into account. Results show that access to car and drivers’ licence, having a job and presence of children in the household increase the probability of making many tours in one day. Furthermore, results show that accessibility is an important factor for generation of non-mandatory tours, that weekend and holiday season are important determinants of when tour purposes are generated, that high income increases the probability of conducting business tours as well as tour patterns that include expensive activities and that high income reduces the probability of conducting cheap activities such as visiting friends and family.
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| 5. |
- Kristoffersson, Ida, 1980-, et al.
(författare)
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Sampers4 : Skattning av regionala efterfrågemodeller
- 2018
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Denna rapport har tagits fram som slutrapportering av projektet ”Sampers4 -fortsättning” finansierat av Trafikverket, som genomförts under hösten 2017 och våren 2018. Detta projekt har tagit vid där tidigare omskattningsprojekt för Sampers regionala efterfrågemodeller slutat. De största förändringarna och förbättringarna i denna senaste omskattning är:att även de som inte angivit någon inkomst i RVU har fått en inkomst påkodad,att hushållsvariabler kunnat inkluderas i skattningen på grund av framsteg inom framtagning av syntetisk befolkning med hushållsdata som kan användas vid implementering,att konsistensen mellan utbud och efterfrågan förbättrats genom att impedansen från kollektivtrafikutläggningen använts i skattning av efterfrågemodeller för färdmedelsval.Projektet ”Sampers4 –fortsättning” har avgränsats till att gälla skattning av regionala efterfrågemodeller. Implementering av modellerna har påbörjats i tidigare omskattningsprojekt, men har inte ingått i detta projekt. Vi inser att mycket av vårt arbete i detta projekt inte kunnat göras utan det arbete som gjorts i tidigare omskattningsprojekt.
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| 6. |
- Lövenheim, Boel, et al.
(författare)
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Health risk assessment of reduced air pollution exposure when changing commuting by car to bike
- 2016
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study we have assessed the reduction in traffic emissions and population exposure assuming all potential car commuters would switch to biking if they live within 30 minute travel by bike. The scenario would result in more than 100 000 new bikers and due to the reduced traffic emissions 42 premature deaths would be avoided per year. This is almost twice as large effect as the congestion tax in Stockholm. Introduction Regular physical activity has important and wide-ranging health benefits including reduced risk of chronic disease, and physical inactivity is mentioned as perhaps the most important public health problem of the 21st century. At the same time, the direct effects of traffic emissions is a major health problem. Transferring commuting by car to bike will increase physical activity and reduce emissions and reduce population exposure to traffic pollution. The exposure of commuters will also change; new bikers may get higher exposure whilst old bikers and car drivers may get lower exposures, depending on commuting route and distance. Methodology In this study we have calculated the potential number of car-to-bike switching commuters depending on distance, travel time, age of commuters, etc. We have made calculations for a 30-minute biking scenario, i.e. transferring all car commuters to bike if their travel time by bike is less than or equal to 30 minutes. The commuting distance depends on age and sex. For the travel and traffic modelling the LuTrans model was used. It includes all different modes of travel; walking, bicycling, public transport systems and car traffic. The model was developed based on travel survey data and is regularly calibrated using traffic counts. Emissions from road traffic were calculated based on HBEFA 3.2. A Gaussian dispersion model was used estimate exposures over the county of Stockholm. Results The 30 min scenario resulted in 106 881 more bikers, an increase of 2.6 times compared to base scenario. Of all bikers 50% were men and the mean age of all bikers was 42. The traffic emissions of NOx was reduced by up to 7%. Up to 20% reduction in traffic contribution to NOx concentrations was calculated as shown in Figure 1. The mean reduction in concentration for the whole area is 6% and the largest occur were most people live.The population weighted mean NOx concentration for 1.6 million people in Greater Stockholm is estimated to be reduced by 0.41 μg m-3. Assuming that the premature mortality is reduced by 8% per 10 μg m-3 (Nafstad et al., 2004), this corresponds to 42 avoided premature deaths every year or 514 gained life years gained. This is even somewhat more beneficial than the effects of the congestion charge in Stockholm (Johansson et al., 2009), which was estimated to save 27 premature deaths per year. The gain in reduced mortality is almost as large as the gain in health of the increased physical activity. Conclusions Transferring car commuters to bike is not only beneficial for the physical activity, but will also lead to reduced traffic emissions and reduced population exposure. Our estimates show that it may be even more beneficial for mortality due to air pollution exposure than the congestion charge in Stockholm. Acknowledgement This project was funded by the Swedish Research Council for Health, Working life and Welfare. References Johansson, C., Burman, L., Forsberg, B. 2009. The effects of congestions tax on air quality and health. Atmos. Environ. 43, 4843-4854.Nafstad, P., Lund Håheim, L., Wisloeff, T., Gram, G., Oftedal, B., Holme, I., Hjermann, I. and Leren, P. 2004. Urban Air Pollution and Mortality in a Cohort of Norwegian Men. Environ. Health Perspect. 112, 610-615.
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