| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Kallmen, H, et al.
(författare)
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Psychometric Properties of the AUDIT, AUDIT-C, CRAFFT and ASSIST-Y among Swedish Adolescents
- 2019
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Ingår i: European addiction research. - : S. Karger AG. - 1421-9891 .- 1022-6877. ; 25:2, s. 68-77
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- <b><i>Background/Aims:</i></b> Not enough is known about the psychometric properties of screening instruments for problematic alcohol consumption among adolescents. The aim of the current study was to evaluate and compare the performance of the screening instruments: Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), AUDIT-C, CRAFFT, and the alcohol domain of Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test-Youth (ASSIST-Y) among adolescents and to suggest optimal cut-offs indicating problematic use. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> Data was collected from a general population sample (<i>n</i> = 1,421) and a treatment-seeking sample (<i>n</i> = 59) using electronic versions of the instruments. <b><i>Results:</i></b> The internal consistencies for the instruments were fair (alpha’s AUDIT 0.74, AUDIT-C 0.75, CRAFFT 0.67, ASSIST-Y 0.62), and test-retest reliabilities were good to excellent (intraclass correlation coefficients AUDIT 0.86, AUDIT-C 0.93, CRAFFT 0.77, ASSIST-Y 0.63). The CRAFFT and ASSIST-Y demonstrated reasonable construct validities while factor solutions for AUDIT and AUDIT-C could not be determined. The optimal cut-off score was 2 for both CRAFFT and ASSIST-Y (61 and 73% sensitivities and 79 and 65% specificities, respectively), while sensitivity scores were poor for AUDIT and AUDIT-C. <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> Based on the current sample, ASSIST-Y and the CRAFFT performed better than AUDIT and AUDIT-C. Health-care clinics working with adolescents should carefully consider their choice of screening instruments.
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| 4. |
- Källmén, Håkan, et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol habits in Sweden during 1997-2018 : a repeated cross-sectional study
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nordic Journal of Psychiatry. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0803-9488 .- 1502-4725. ; 73:8, s. 522-526
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: This study describes changes in alcohol habits in age and gender strata among the Swedish general population during the 21-year period following the Swedish EU membership in 1995.Methods: The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) was distributed as a postal questionnaire to randomly selected cross-sectional samples every fourth year, starting in 1997.Results: Six samples were included in this study. A comparison between 2014 and 2018 showed a tendency to decreasing average total AUDIT scores, particularly among men and in the youngest age group (Cohen’s d = 0.28).Conclusion: The results should be understood in the context of declining response rates in this type of survey.
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| 5. |
- Källmén, Håkan, et al.
(författare)
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Concurrent validity of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) in relation to Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) severity levels according to the brief DSM-5 AUD diagnostic assessment screener
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nordic Journal of Psychiatry. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0803-9488 .- 1502-4725. ; 73:7, s. 397-400
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) is a well-established and widely used screening instrument. It has been shown that AUDIT has good criterion validity in relation to alcohol abuse and dependence according to DSM-IV, but it has not yet been validated following the introduction of the DSM-5 diagnostic system. The aim of this study was to evaluate concurrent validity for the AUDIT in relation to self-reported DSM-5 severity levels for Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) in a Swedish general population sample.Methods: A postal questionnaire, containing the AUDIT and the 13-item brief DSM-5 AUD diagnostic assessment screener, was sent to a random sample of 1,500 persons drawn from the Swedish population, aged between 17 and 80 years and having a public residence address in Sweden. To evaluate the concurrent validity of AUDIT in relation to DSM-5 severity criteria for AUD, a Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was conducted.Results: Area under the curve (AUROC) showed excellent differentiation between AUD or not, mild (.93), moderate (.92) and severe (.99). Higher individual AUDIT scores were associated with more severe levels of AUD according to the DSM-5 screener. The optimal cutoff scores approximate earlier research on the DSM-IV and were identified as 5, 7 and 13 points, respectively, for mild, moderate and severe AUD.Conclusions: Our findings indicate that AUDIT is a valid screener for detecting concurrent AUD at three severity levels in the Swedish general population.
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| 6. |
- Riper, Heleen, et al.
(författare)
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Effectiveness and treatment moderators of internet interventions for adult problem drinking : An individual patient data meta-analysis of 19 randomised controlled trials
- 2018
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Ingår i: PLoS Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 15:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundFace-to-face brief interventions for problem drinking are effective, but they have found limited implementation in routine care and the community. Internet-based interventions could overcome this treatment gap. We investigated effectiveness and moderators of treatment outcomes in internet-based interventions for adult problem drinking (iAIs).Methods and findingsSystematic searches were performed in medical and psychological databases to 31 December 2016. A one-stage individual patient data meta-analysis (IPDMA) was conducted with a linear mixed model complete-case approach, using baseline and first follow-up data. The primary outcome measure was mean weekly alcohol consumption in standard units (SUs, 10 grams of ethanol). Secondary outcome was treatment response (TR), defined as less than 14/21 SUs for women/men weekly. Putative participant, intervention, and study moderators were included. Robustness was verified in three sensitivity analyses: a two-stage IPDMA, a one-stage IPDMA using multiple imputation, and a missing-not-at-random (MNAR) analysis. We obtained baseline data for 14,198 adult participants (19 randomised controlled trials [RCTs], mean age 40.7 [SD = 13.2], 47.6% women). Their baseline mean weekly alcohol consumption was 38.1 SUs (SD = 26.9). Most were regular problem drinkers (80.1%, SUs 44.7, SD = 26.4) and 19.9% (SUs 11.9, SD = 4.1) were binge-only drinkers. About one third were heavy drinkers, meaning that women/men consumed, respectively, more than 35/50 SUs of alcohol at baseline (34.2%, SUs 65.9, SD = 27.1). Post-intervention data were available for 8,095 participants. Compared with controls, iAI participants showed a greater mean weekly decrease at follow-up of 5.02 SUs (95% CI -7.57 to -2.48, p < 0.001) and a higher rate of TR (odds ratio [OR] 2.20, 95% CI 1.63-2.95, p < 0.001, number needed to treat [NNT] = 4.15, 95% CI 3.06-6.62). Persons above age 55 showed higher TR than their younger counterparts (OR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.21-2.27, p = 0.002). Drinking profiles were not significantly associated with treatment outcomes. Human-supported interventions were superior to fully automated ones on both outcome measures (comparative reduction: -6.78 SUs, 95% CI -12.11 to -1.45, p = 0.013; TR: OR = 2.23, 95% CI 1.22-4.08, p = 0.009). Participants treated in iAIs based on personalised normative feedback (PNF) alone were significantly less likely to sustain low-risk drinking at follow-up than those in iAIs based on integrated therapeutic principles (OR = 0.52, 95% CI 0.29-0.93, p = 0.029). The use of waitlist control in RCTs was associated with significantly better treatment outcomes than the use of other types of control (comparative reduction: -9.27 SUs, 95% CI -13.97 to -4.57, p < 0.001; TR: OR = 3.74, 95% CI 2.13-6.53, p < 0.001). The overall quality of the RCTs was high; a major limitation included high study dropout (43%). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of our primary analyses.ConclusionTo our knowledge, this is the first IPDMA on internet-based interventions that has shown them to be effective in curbing various patterns of adult problem drinking in both community and healthcare settings. Waitlist control may be conducive to inflation of treatment outcomes.
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| 7. |
- Andersson, Claes, et al.
(författare)
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Automated telephone interventions for problematic alcohol use in clinical and population samples : a randomized controlled trial
- 2017
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Ingår i: BMC Research Notes. - : BioMed Central. - 1756-0500. ; 10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective The primary objective was to evaluate 6-month outcomes for brief and extensive automated telephony interventions targeting problematic alcohol use, in comparison to an assessment-only control group. The secondary objective was to compare levels of problematic alcohol use (hazardous, harmful or probable dependence), gender and age among study participants from clinical psychiatric and addiction outpatient settings and from population-based telephone helpline users and Internet help-seeker samples. Results The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) was used for screening of problematic alcohol use and 6-month follow-up assessment. A total of 248 of help-seekers with at least hazardous use (AUDIT scores of ≥ 6/≥ 8 for women/men) were recruited from clinical and general population settings. Minor recruitment group differences were identified with respect to AUDIT scores and age at baseline. One hundred and sixty persons (64.5%) did not complete the follow-up assessment. The attrition group had a higher proportion of probable dependence (71% vs. 56%; p = 0.025), and higher scores on the total AUDIT, and its subscales for alcohol consumption and alcohol problems. At follow up, within-group problem levels had declined across all three groups, but there were no significant between-group differences. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01958359, Registered October 9, 2013. Retrospectively registered
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| 8. |
- Belkic, Karen, et al.
(författare)
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Imaging surveillance programs for women at high breast cancer risk in Europe : Are women from ethnic minority groups adequately included?
- 2015
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Ingår i: International Journal of Oncology. - : Spandidos Publications. - 1019-6439 .- 1791-2423. ; 47:3, s. 817-839
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Women from ethnic minority groups, including immigrants and refugees are reported to have low breast cancer (BC) screening rates. Active, culturally-sensitive outreach is vital for increasing participation of these women in BC screening programs. Women at high BC risk and who belong to an ethnic minority group are of special concern. Such women could benefit from ongoing trials aimed at optimizing screening strategies for early BC detection among those at increased BC risk. Considering the marked disparities in BC survival in Europe and its enormous and dynamic ethnic diversity, these issues are extremely timely for Europe. We systematically reviewed the literature concerning European surveillance studies that had imaging in the protocol and that targeted women at high BC risk. The aim of the present review was thereby to assess the likelihood that women at high BC risk from minority ethnic groups were adequately included in these surveillance programs. Twenty-seven research groups in Europe reported on their imaging surveillance programs for women at increased BC risk. The benefit of strategies such as inclusion of magnetic resonance imaging and/or more intensive screening was clearly documented for the participating women at increased BC risk. However, none of the reports indicated that sufficient outreach was performed to ensure that women at increased BC risk from minority ethnic groups were adequately included in these surveillance programs. On the basis of this systematic review, we conclude that the specific screening needs of ethnic minority women at increased BC risk have not yet been met in Europe. Active, culturally-sensitive outreach is needed to identify minority women at increased BC risk and to facilitate their inclusion in on-going surveillance programs. It is anticipated that these efforts would be most effective if coordinated with the development of European-wide, population-based approaches to BC screening.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Bergdahl, Lena, 1980-, et al.
(författare)
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Auricular Acupuncture and Cognitive Behavioural Therapy for Insomnia : A Randomised Controlled Study
- 2016
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Ingår i: Sleep Disorders. - : Hindawi Publishing Corporation. - 2090-3545 .- 2090-3553. ; 2016
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective. The most effective nonpharmacological treatment for insomnia disorder is cognitive behavioural therapy-insomnia (CBT-i). However CBT-i may not suit everyone. Auricular acupuncture (AA) is a complementary treatment. Studies show that it may alleviate insomnia symptoms. The aim of this randomised controlled study was to compare treatment effects of AA with CBT-i and evaluate symptoms of insomnia severity, anxiety, and depression. Method. Fifty-nine participants, mean age 60.5 years (SD 9.4), with insomnia disorder were randomised to group treatment with AA or CBT-i. Self-report questionnaires, the Insomnia Severity Index (ISI), Dysfunctional Beliefs and Attitudes about Sleep scale (DBAS-16), Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS), and Hospital Anxiety and Depression scale (HAD), were collected at baseline, after treatment, and at 6-month follow-up. A series of linear mixed models were performed to examine treatment effect over time between and within the groups. Results. Significant between-group improvements were seen in favour of CBT-i in ISI after treatment and at the 6-month follow-up and in DBAS-16 after treatment. Both groups showed significant within-group postintervention improvements in ISI, and these changes were maintained six months later. The CBT-i group also showed a significant reduction in DBAS-16 after treatment and six months later. Conclusions. Compared to CBT-i, AA, as offered in this study, cannot be considered an effective stand-alone treatment for insomnia disorder.
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