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- Thomas, HS, et al.
(author)
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- 2019
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swepub:Mat__t
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- Tran, K. B., et al.
(author)
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The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
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In: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 400:10352, s. 563-591
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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- Benmahi, B., et al.
(author)
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Monitoring of the evolution of H2O vapor in the stratosphere of Jupiter over an 18-yr period with the Odin space telescope
- 2020
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In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 641
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Context. The comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 impacted Jupiter in July 1994, leaving its stratosphere with several new species, with water vapor (H2O) among them. Aims. With the aid of a photochemical model, H2O can be used as a dynamical tracer in the Jovian stratosphere. In this paper, we aim to constrain the vertical eddy diffusion (Kzz) at levels where H2O is present. Methods. We monitored the H2O disk-averaged emission at 556.936 GHz with the space telescope between 2002 and 2019, covering nearly two decades. We analyzed the data with a combination of 1D photochemical and radiative transfer models to constrain the vertical eddy diffusion in the stratosphere of Jupiter. Results. Odin observations show us that the emission of H2O has an almost linear decrease of about 40% between 2002 and 2019. We can only reproduce our time series if we increase the magnitude of Kzz in the pressure range where H2O diffuses downward from 2002 to 2019, that is, from ~0.2 mbar to ~5 mbar. However, this modified Kzz is incompatible with hydrocarbon observations. We find that even if an allowance is made for the initially large abundances of H2O and CO at the impact latitudes, the photochemical conversion of H2O to CO2 is not sufficient to explain the progressive decline of the H2O line emission, which is suggestive of additional loss mechanisms. Conclusions. The Kzz we derived from the Odin observations of H2O can only be viewed as an upper limit in the ~0.2 mbar to ~5 mbar pressure range. The incompatibility between the interpretations made from H2O and hydrocarbon observations probably results from 1D modeling limitations. Meridional variability of H2O, most probably at auroral latitudes, would need to be assessed and compared with that of hydrocarbons to quantify the role of auroral chemistry in the temporal evolution of the H2O abundance since the SL9 impacts. Modeling the temporal evolution of SL9 species with a 2D model would naturally be the next step in this area of study.
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