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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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- Mörtzell Henriksson, Monica, et al.
(författare)
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Adverse events in apheresis : an update of the WAA registry data
- 2016
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Ingår i: Transfusion and apheresis science. - : Elsevier. - 1473-0502 .- 1878-1683. ; 54:1, s. 2-15
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Apheresis with different procedures and devices are used for a variety of indications that may have different adverse events (AEs). The aim of this study was to clarify the extent and possible reasons of various side effects based on data from a multinational registry. The WAA-apheresis registry data focus on adverse events in a total of 50846 procedures in 7142 patients (42% women). AEs were graded as mild, moderate (need for medication), severe (interruption due to the AE) or death (due to AE). More AEs occurred during the first procedures versus subsequent (8.4 and 5.5%, respectively). AEs were mild in 2.4% (due to access 54%, device 7%, hypotension 15%, tingling 8%), moderate in 3% (tingling 58%, urticaria 15%, hypotension 10%, nausea 3%), and severe in 0.4% of procedures (syncope/hypotension 32%, urticaria 17%, chills/fever 8%, arrhythmia/asystole 4.5%, nausea/vomiting 4%). Hypotension was most common if albumin was used as the replacement fluid, and urticaria when plasma was used. Arrhythmia occurred to similar extents when using plasma or albumin as replacement. In 64% of procedures with bronchospasm, plasma was part of the replacement fluid used. Severe AEs are rare. Although most reactions are mild and moderate, several side effects may be critical for the patient. We present side effects in relation to the procedures and suggest that safety is increased by regular vital sign measurements, cardiac monitoring and by having emergency equipment nearby.
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- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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- Stegmayr, Bernd, et al.
(författare)
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Distribution of indications and procedures within the framework of centers participating in the WAA apheresis registry
- 2017
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Ingår i: Transfusion and apheresis science. - : Elsevier BV. - 1473-0502 .- 1878-1683. ; 56:1, s. 71-74
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The WAA apheresis registry was established in 2003 and an increasing number of centers have since then included their experience and data of their procedures. The registry now contains data of more than 74,000 apheresis procedures in more than 10,000 patients. This report shows that the indications for apheresis procedures are changing towards more oncological diagnoses and stem cell collections from patients and donors and less therapeutic apheresis procedures. In centers that continue to register, the total extent of apheresis procedures and patients treated have expanded during the latest years.
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