| 1. |
- Hageman, S., et al.
(författare)
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SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe
- 2021
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 42:25, s. 2439-2454
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe. Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.
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| 2. |
- Surendran, Praveen, et al.
(författare)
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Discovery of rare variants associated with blood pressure regulation through meta-analysis of 1.3 million individuals
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 52:12, s. 1314-1332
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Genetic studies of blood pressure (BP) to date have mainly analyzed common variants (minor allele frequency > 0.05). In a meta-analysis of up to similar to 1.3 million participants, we discovered 106 new BP-associated genomic regions and 87 rare (minor allele frequency <= 0.01) variant BP associations (P < 5 x 10(-8)), of which 32 were in new BP-associated loci and 55 were independent BP-associated single-nucleotide variants within known BP-associated regions. Average effects of rare variants (44% coding) were similar to 8 times larger than common variant effects and indicate potential candidate causal genes at new and known loci (for example, GATA5 and PLCB3). BP-associated variants (including rare and common) were enriched in regions of active chromatin in fetal tissues, potentially linking fetal development with BP regulation in later life. Multivariable Mendelian randomization suggested possible inverse effects of elevated systolic and diastolic BP on large artery stroke. Our study demonstrates the utility of rare-variant analyses for identifying candidate genes and the results highlight potential therapeutic targets.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Börschel, Christin S., et al.
(författare)
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Risk prediction of atrial fibrillation and its complications in the community using hs troponin I
- 2023
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Ingår i: European Journal of Clinical Investigation. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0014-2972 .- 1365-2362. ; 53:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is becoming increasingly common. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) do not explain all AF cases. Blood-based biomarkers reflecting cardiac injury such as high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) may help close this gap.Methods: We investigated the predictive ability of hsTnI for incident AF in 45,298 participants (median age 51.4 years, 45.0% men) across European community cohorts in comparison to CVRF and established biomarkers (C-reactive protein, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide).Results: During a median follow-up of 7.7 years, 1734 (3.8%) participants developed AF. Those in the highest hsTnI quarter (≥4.2 ng/L) had a 3.91-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.30, 4.63; p <.01) risk for developing AF compared to the lowest quarter (<1.4 ng/L). In multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models a statistically significant association was seen between hsTnI and AF (hazard ratio (HR) per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in log10(hsTnI) 1.08; 95% CI 1.01, 1.16; p =.03). Inclusion of hsTnI did improve model discrimination (C-index CVRF 0.811 vs. C-index CVRF and hsTnI 0.813; p <.01). Higher hsTnI concentrations were associated with heart failure (HR per SD 1.37; 95% CI 1.12, 1.68; p <.01) and overall mortality (HR per SD 1.24; 95% CI 1.09, 1.41; p <.01).Conclusion: hsTnI as a biomarker of myocardial injury does not improve prediction of AF incidence beyond classical CVRF and NT-proBNP. However, it is associated with the AF-related disease heart failure and mortality likely reflecting underlying subclinical cardiovascular impairment.
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| 6. |
- Erzurumluoglu, A. Mesut, et al.
(författare)
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Meta-analysis of up to 622,409 individuals identifies 40 novel smoking behaviour associated genetic loci
- 2020
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Ingår i: Molecular Psychiatry. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1359-4184 .- 1476-5578. ; 25:10, s. 2392-2409
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Smoking is a major heritable and modifiable risk factor for many diseases, including cancer, common respiratory disorders and cardiovascular diseases. Fourteen genetic loci have previously been associated with smoking behaviour-related traits. We tested up to 235,116 single nucleotide variants (SNVs) on the exome-array for association with smoking initiation, cigarettes per day, pack-years, and smoking cessation in a fixed effects meta-analysis of up to 61 studies (up to 346,813 participants). In a subset of 112,811 participants, a further one million SNVs were also genotyped and tested for association with the four smoking behaviour traits. SNV-trait associations with P < 5 × 10-8 in either analysis were taken forward for replication in up to 275,596 independent participants from UK Biobank. Lastly, a meta-analysis of the discovery and replication studies was performed. Sixteen SNVs were associated with at least one of the smoking behaviour traits (P < 5 × 10-8) in the discovery samples. Ten novel SNVs, including rs12616219 near TMEM182, were followed-up and five of them (rs462779 in REV3L, rs12780116 in CNNM2, rs1190736 in GPR101, rs11539157 in PJA1, and rs12616219 near TMEM182) replicated at a Bonferroni significance threshold (P < 4.5 × 10-3) with consistent direction of effect. A further 35 SNVs were associated with smoking behaviour traits in the discovery plus replication meta-analysis (up to 622,409 participants) including a rare SNV, rs150493199, in CCDC141 and two low-frequency SNVs in CEP350 and HDGFRP2. Functional follow-up implied that decreased expression of REV3L may lower the probability of smoking initiation. The novel loci will facilitate understanding the genetic aetiology of smoking behaviour and may lead to the identification of potential drug targets for smoking prevention and/or cessation.
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| 7. |
- Magnussen, Christina, et al.
(författare)
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Global effect of modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease and mortality
- 2023
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Ingår i: New England Journal of Medicine. - : Massachusetts Medical Society. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 389:14, s. 1273-1285
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking.Methods: We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality.Results: Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6).Conclusions: Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.)
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| 8. |
- Camen, Stephan, et al.
(författare)
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Risk Factors, Subsequent Disease Onset, and Prognostic Impact of Myocardial Infarction and Atrial Fibrillation
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Heart Association. - : American Heart Association. - 2047-9980. ; 11:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Although myocardial infarction (MI) and atrial fibrillation (AF) are frequent comorbidities and share common cardiovascular risk factors, the direction and strength of the association of the risk factors with disease onset, subsequent disease incidence, and mortality are not completely understood.METHODS AND RESULTS: In pooled multivariable Cox regression analyses, we examined temporal relations of disease onset and identified predictors of MI, AF, and all-cause mortality in 108 363 individuals (median age, 46.0 years; 48.2% men) free of MI and AF at baseline from 6 European population-based cohorts. During a maximum follow-up of 10.0 years, 3558 (3.3%) individuals were diagnosed exclusively with MI, 1922 (1.8%) with AF but no MI, and 491 (0.5%) individuals developed both MI and AF. Association of sex, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive treatment, and diabetes appeared to be stronger with incident MI than with AF, whereas increasing age and body mass index showed a higher risk for incident AF. Total cholesterol and daily smoking were significantly related to incident MI but not AF. Combined population attributable fraction of cardiovascular risk factors was >70% for incident MI, whereas it was only 27% for AF. Subsequent MI after AF (hazard ratio [HR], 1.68; 95% CI, 1.03–2.74) and subsequent AF after MI (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.31–2.34) both significantly increased overall mortality risk.CONCLUSIONS: We observed different associations of cardiovascular risk factors with both diseases indicating distinct pathophysiological pathways. Subsequent diagnoses of MI and AF significantly increased mortality risk.
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| 9. |
- Neumann, Johannes Tobias, et al.
(författare)
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Prognostic value of cardiovascular biomarkers in the population
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 0098-7484 .- 1538-3598. ; 331:22, s. 1898-1909
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Importance: Identification of individuals at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease within the population is important to inform primary prevention strategies.Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of routinely available cardiovascular biomarkers when added to established risk factors.Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual-level analysis including data on cardiovascular biomarkers from 28 general population-based cohorts from 12 countries and 4 continents with assessments by participant age. The median follow-up was 11.8 years.Exposure: Measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, B-type natriuretic peptide, or high-sensitivity C-reactive protein.Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, which included all fatal and nonfatal events. The secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, heart failure, ischemic stroke, and myocardial infarction. Subdistribution hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of biomarkers and outcomes were calculated after adjustment for established risk factors. The additional predictive value of the biomarkers was assessed using the C statistic and reclassification analyses.Results: The analyses included 164054 individuals (median age, 53.1 years [IQR, 42.7-62.9 years] and 52.4% were women). There were 17211 incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events. All biomarkers were significantly associated with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (subdistribution HR per 1-SD change, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.11-1.16] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I; 1.18 [95% CI, 1.12-1.23] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T; 1.21 [95% CI, 1.18-1.24] for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; 1.14 [95% CI, 1.08-1.22] for B-type natriuretic peptide; and 1.14 [95% CI, 1.12-1.16] for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) and all secondary outcomes. The addition of each single biomarker to a model that included established risk factors improved the C statistic. For 10-year incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in younger people (aged <65 years), the combination of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein resulted in a C statistic improvement from 0.812 (95% CI, 0.8021-0.8208) to 0.8194 (95% CI, 0.8089-0.8277). The combination of these biomarkers also improved reclassification compared with the conventional model. Improvements in risk prediction were most pronounced for the secondary outcomes of heart failure and all-cause mortality. The incremental value of biomarkers was greater in people aged 65 years or older vs younger people.Conclusions and Relevance: Cardiovascular biomarkers were strongly associated with fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events and mortality. The addition of biomarkers to established risk factors led to only a small improvement in risk prediction metrics for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, but was more favorable for heart failure and mortality..
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| 10. |
- Oskarsson, Viktor, et al.
(författare)
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Influence of geographical latitude on vitamin D status: cross-sectional results from the BiomarCaRE consortium
- 2022
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Ingår i: British Journal of Nutrition. - : Cambridge University Press. - 0007-1145 .- 1475-2662. ; 128:11, s. 2208-2218
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Even though sunlight is viewed as the most important determinant of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) status, several European studies have observed higher 25(OH)D concentrations among north-Europeans than south-Europeans. We studied the association between geographical latitude (derived from ecological data) and 25(OH)D status in 6 European countries by using harmonized immunoassay data from 81,084 participants in the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project (male sex 48.9%; median age 50.8 years; examination period 1984 to 2014). Quantile regression models, adjusted for age, sex, decade and calendar week of sampling, and time from sampling to analysis, were used for between-country comparisons. Up until the median percentile, the ordering of countries by 25(OH)D status (from highest to lowest) was as follows: Sweden (at 65.6 to 63.8 oN), Germany (at 48.4 oN), Finland (at 65.0 to 60.2 oN), Italy (at 45.6 to 41.5 oN), Scotland (at 58.2 to 55.1 oN), and Spain (at 41.5 oN). From the 75th percentile and upwards, Finland had higher values than Germany. As an example, using the Swedish cohort as comparator, the median 25(OH)D concentration was 3.03, 3.28, 5.41, 6.54, and 9.28 ng/mL lower in the German, Finnish, Italian, Scottish, and Spanish cohort, respectively (P-value < 0.001 for all comparisons). The ordering of countries was highly consistent in subgroup analyses by sex, age, and decade and season of sampling. In conclusion, we confirmed the previous observation of a north-to-south gradient of 25(OH)D status in Europe, with higher percentile values among north-Europeans than south-Europeans.
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