| 1. |
- Bravo, L, et al.
(författare)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Tabiri, S, et al.
(författare)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 4. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 5. |
- Schulze, Steve, et al.
(författare)
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The Palomar Transient Factory Core-collapse Supernova Host-galaxy Sample. I. Host-galaxy Distribution Functions and Environment Dependence of Core-collapse Supernovae
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 255:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Several thousand core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) of different flavors have been discovered so far. However, identifying their progenitors has remained an outstanding open question in astrophysics. Studies of SN host galaxies have proven to be powerful in providing constraints on the progenitor populations. In this paper, we present all CCSNe detected between 2009 and 2017 by the Palomar Transient Factory. This sample includes 888 SNe of 12 distinct classes out to redshift z approximate to 1. We present the photometric properties of their host galaxies from the far-ultraviolet to the mid-infrared and model the host-galaxy spectral energy distributions to derive physical properties. The galaxy mass function of Type Ic, Ib, IIb, II, and IIn SNe ranges from 10(5) to 10(11.5) M (circle dot), probing the entire mass range of star-forming galaxies down to the least-massive star-forming galaxies known. Moreover, the galaxy mass distributions are consistent with models of star-formation-weighted mass functions. Regular CCSNe are hence direct tracers of star formation. Small but notable differences exist between some of the SN classes. Type Ib/c SNe prefer galaxies with slightly higher masses (i.e., higher metallicities) and star formation rates than Type IIb and II SNe. These differences are less pronounced than previously thought. H-poor superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) and SNe Ic-BL are scarce in galaxies above 10(10) M (circle dot). Their progenitors require environments with metallicities of < 0.4 and < 1 solar, respectively. In addition, the hosts of H-poor SLSNe are dominated by a younger stellar population than all other classes of CCSNe. Our findings corroborate the notion that low metallicity and young age play an important role in the formation of SLSN progenitors.
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