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- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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| 2. |
- Robinson-Cohen, Cassianne, et al.
(författare)
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Genetic Variants Associated with Circulating Fibroblast Growth Factor 23
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Society of Nephrology. - : AMER SOC NEPHROLOGY. - 1046-6673 .- 1533-3450. ; 29:10, s. 2583-2592
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23), a bone-derived hormone that regulates phosphorus and vitamin D metabolism, contributes to the pathogenesis of mineral and bone disorders in CKD and is an emerging cardiovascular risk factor. Central elements of FGF23 regulation remain incompletely understood; genetic variation may help explain interindividual differences.Methods: We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of circulating FGF23 concentrations among 16,624 participants of European ancestry from seven cohort studies, excluding participants with eGFR<30 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) to focus on FGF23 under normal conditions. We evaluated the association of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with natural log-transformed FGF23 concentration, adjusted for age, sex, study site, and principal components of ancestry. A second model additionally adjusted for BMI and eGFR.Results: We discovered 154 SNPs from five independent regions associated with FGF23 concentration. The SNP with the strongest association, rs17216707 (P=3.0x10(-24)), lies upstream of CYP24A1, which encodes the primary catabolic enzyme for 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D and 25-hydroxyvitamin D. Each additional copy of the T allele at this locus is associated with 5% higher FGF23 concentration. Another locus strongly associated with variations in FGF23 concentration is rs11741640, within RGS14 and upstream of SLC34A1 (a gene involved in renal phosphate transport). Additional adjustment for BMI and eGFR did not materially alter the magnitude of these associations. Another top locus (within ABO, the ABO blood group transferase gene) was no longer statistically significant at the genome-wide level.Conclusions: Common genetic variants located near genes involved in vitamin D metabolism and renal phosphate transport are associated with differences in circulating FGF23 concentrations.
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| 3. |
- Wood, Angela M., et al.
(författare)
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Risk thresholds for alcohol consumption : combined analysis of individual-participant data for 599 912 current drinkers in 83 prospective studies
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 391:10129, s. 1513-1523
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Low-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers without previous cardiovascular disease.Methods: We did a combined analysis of individual-participant data from three large-scale data sources in 19 high-income countries (the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD, and the UK Biobank). We characterised dose-response associations and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) per 100 g per week of alcohol (12.5 units per week) across 83 prospective studies, adjusting at least for study or centre, age, sex, smoking, and diabetes. To be eligible for the analysis, participants had to have information recorded about their alcohol consumption amount and status (ie, non-drinker vs current drinker), plus age, sex, history of diabetes and smoking status, at least 1 year of follow-up after baseline, and no baseline history of cardiovascular disease. The main analyses focused on current drinkers, whose baseline alcohol consumption was categorised into eight predefined groups according to the amount in grams consumed per week. We assessed alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality, total cardiovascular disease, and several cardiovascular disease subtypes. We corrected HRs for estimated long-term variability in alcohol consumption using 152 640 serial alcohol assessments obtained some years apart (median interval 5.6 years [5th-95th percentile 1.04-13.5]) from 71 011 participants from 37 studies.Findings: In the 599 912 current drinkers included in the analysis, we recorded 40 310 deaths and 39 018 incident cardiovascular disease events during 5.4 million person-years of follow-up. For all-cause mortality, we recorded a positive and curvilinear association with the level of alcohol consumption, with the minimum mortality risk around or below 100 g per week. Alcohol consumption was roughly linearly associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR per 100 g per week higher consumption 1.14, 95% CI, 1.10-1.17), coronary disease excluding myocardial infarction (1.06, 1.00-1.11), heart failure (1.09, 1.03-1.15), fatal hypertensive disease (1.24, 1.15-1.33); and fatal aortic aneurysm (1.15, 1.03-1.28). By contrast, increased alcohol consumption was loglinearly associated with a lower risk of myocardial infarction (HR 0.94, 0.91-0.97). In comparison to those who reported drinking >0-<= 100 g per week, those who reported drinking >100-<= 200 g per week, >200-<= 350 g per week, or >350 g per week had lower life expectancy at age 40 years of approximately 6 months, 1-2 years, or 4-5 years, respectively.Interpretation: In current drinkers of alcohol in high-income countries, the threshold for lowest risk of all-cause mortality was about 100 g/week. For cardiovascular disease subtypes other than myocardial infarction, there were no clear risk thresholds below which lower alcohol consumption stopped being associated with lower disease risk. These data support limits for alcohol consumption that are lower than those recommended in most current guidelines.
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| 4. |
- Robinson-Cohen, Cassianne, et al.
(författare)
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Genetic Variants Associated with Circulating Parathyroid Hormone.
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN. - 1533-3450. ; 28:5, s. 1553-1565
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Parathyroid hormone (PTH) is a primary calcium regulatory hormone. Elevated serum PTH concentrations in primary and secondary hyperparathyroidism have been associated with bone disease, hypertension, and in some studies, cardiovascular mortality. Genetic causes of variation in circulating PTH concentrations are incompletely understood. We performed a genome-wide association study of serum PTH concentrations among 29,155 participants of European ancestry from 13 cohort studies (n=22,653 and n=6502 in discovery and replication analyses, respectively). We evaluated the association of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with natural log-transformed PTH concentration adjusted for age, sex, season, study site, and principal components of ancestry. We discovered associations of SNPs from five independent regions with serum PTH concentration, including the strongest association with rs6127099 upstream of CYP24A1 (P=4.2 × 10(-53)), a gene that encodes the primary catabolic enzyme for 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D and 25-dihydroxyvitamin D. Each additional copy of the minor allele at this SNP associated with 7% higher serum PTH concentration. The other SNPs associated with serum PTH concentration included rs4074995 within RGS14 (P=6.6 × 10(-17)), rs219779 adjacent to CLDN14 (P=3.5 × 10(-16)), rs4443100 near RTDR1 (P=8.7 × 10(-9)), and rs73186030 near CASR (P=4.8 × 10(-8)). Of these five SNPs, rs6127099, rs4074995, and rs219779 replicated. Thus, common genetic variants located near genes involved in vitamin D metabolism and calcium and renal phosphate transport associated with differences in circulating PTH concentrations. Future studies could identify the causal variants at these loci, and the clinical and functional relevance of these variants should be pursued.
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