| 1. |
- Yang, Wen-Yi, et al.
(författare)
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Association of Office and Ambulatory Blood Pressure With Mortality and Cardiovascular Outcomes
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). - : AMER MEDICAL ASSOC. - 0098-7484 .- 1538-3598. ; 322:5, s. 409-420
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- ImportanceBlood pressure (BP) is a known risk factor for overall mortality and cardiovascular (CV)-specific fatal and nonfatal outcomes. It is uncertain which BP index is most strongly associated with these outcomes. ObjectiveTo evaluate the association of BP indexes with death and a composite CV event. Design, Setting, and ParticipantsLongitudinal population-based cohort study of 11135 adults from Europe, Asia, and South America with baseline observations collected from May 1988 to May 2010 (last follow-ups, August 2006-October 2016). ExposuresBlood pressure measured by an observer or an automated office machine; measured for 24 hours, during the day or the night; and the dipping ratio (nighttime divided by daytime readings). Main Outcomes and MeasuresMultivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) expressed the risk of death or a CV event associated with BP increments of 20/10 mm Hg. Cardiovascular events included CV mortality combined with nonfatal coronary events, heart failure, and stroke. Improvement in model performance was assessed by the change in the area under the curve (AUC). ResultsAmong 11135 participants (median age, 54.7 years, 49.3% women), 2836 participants died (18.5 per 1000 person-years) and 2049 (13.4 per 1000 person-years) experienced a CV event over a median of 13.8 years of follow-up. Both end points were significantly associated with all single systolic BP indexes (P<.001). For nighttime systolic BP level, the HR for total mortality was 1.23 (95% CI, 1.17-1.28) and for CV events, 1.36 (95% CI, 1.30-1.43). For the 24-hour systolic BP level, the HR for total mortality was 1.22 (95% CI, 1.16-1.28) and for CV events, 1.45 (95% CI, 1.37-1.54). With adjustment for any of the other systolic BP indexes, the associations of nighttime and 24-hour systolic BP with the primary outcomes remained statistically significant (HRs ranging from 1.17 [95% CI, 1.10-1.25] to 1.87 [95% CI, 1.62-2.16]). Base models that included single systolic BP indexes yielded an AUC of 0.83 for mortality and 0.84 for the CV outcomes. Adding 24-hour or nighttime systolic BP to base models that included other BP indexes resulted in incremental improvements in the AUC of 0.0013 to 0.0027 for mortality and 0.0031 to 0.0075 for the composite CV outcome. Adding any systolic BP index to models already including nighttime or 24-hour systolic BP did not significantly improve model performance. These findings were consistent for diastolic BP. Conclusions and RelevanceIn this population-based cohort study, higher 24-hour and nighttime blood pressure measurements were significantly associated with greater risks of death and a composite CV outcome, even after adjusting for other office-based or ambulatory blood pressure measurements. Thus, 24-hour and nighttime blood pressure may be considered optimal measurements for estimating CV risk, although statistically, model improvement compared with other blood pressure indexes was small.
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| 2. |
- Cheng, Yi-Bang, et al.
(författare)
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Outcome-Driven Thresholds for Ambulatory Blood Pressure Based on the New American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Classification of Hypertension
- 2019
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Ingår i: Hypertension. - 0194-911X .- 1524-4563. ; 74:4, s. 776-783
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The new American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline reclassified office blood pressure and proposed thresholds for ambulatory blood pressure (ABP). We derived outcome-driven ABP thresholds corresponding with the new office blood pressure categories. We performed 24-hour ABP monitoring in 11 152 participants (48.9% women; mean age, 53.0 years) representative of 13 populations. We determined ABP thresholds resulting in multivariable-adjusted 10-year risks similar to those associated with elevated office blood pressure (120/80 mm Hg) and stages 1 and 2 of office hypertension (130/80 and 140/90 mm Hg). Over 13.9 years (median), 2728 (rate per 1000 person-years, 17.9) people died, 1033 (6.8) from cardiovascular disease; furthermore, 1988 (13.8), 893 (6.0), and 795 (5.4) cardiovascular and coronary events and strokes occurred. Using a composite cardiovascular end point, systolic/diastolic outcome-driven thresholds indicating elevated 24-hour, daytime, and nighttime ABP were 117.9/75.2, 121.4/79.6, and 105.3/66.2 mm Hg. For stages 1 and 2 ambulatory hypertension, thresholds were 123.3/75.2 and 128.7/80.7 mm Hg for 24-hour ABP, 128.5/79.6 and 135.6/87.1 mm Hg for daytime ABP, and 111.7/66.2 and 118.1/72.5 mm Hg for nighttime ABP. ABP thresholds derived from other end points were similar. After rounding, approximate thresholds for elevated 24-hour, daytime, and nighttime ABP were 120/75, 120/80, and 105/65 mm Hg, and for stages 1 and 2, ambulatory hypertension 125/75 and 130/80 mm Hg, 130/80 and 135/85 mm Hg, and 110/65 and 120/70 mm Hg. Outcome-driven ABP thresholds corresponding to elevated blood pressure and stages 1 and 2 of hypertension are similar to those proposed by the current American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline.
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| 3. |
- Di Angelantonio, Emanuele, et al.
(författare)
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Association of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity With Mortality : The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 0098-7484 .- 1538-3598. ; 314:1, s. 52-60
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IMPORTANCE The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing.OBJECTIVE To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity.DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Age-and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689 300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128 843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499 808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates. EXPOSURES A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI).MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy.RESULTS In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.
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| 4. |
- Franklin, Stanley S., et al.
(författare)
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The Cardiovascular Risk of White-Coat Hypertension
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097 .- 1558-3597. ; 68:19, s. 2033-2043
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND The role of white-coat hypertension (WCH) and the white-coat-effect (WCE) in development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk remains poorly understood. OBJECTIVES Using data from the population-based, 11-cohort IDACO (International Database on Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring in Relation to Cardiovascular Outcomes), this study compared daytime ambulatory blood pressure monitoring with conventional blood pressure measurements in 653 untreated subjects with WCH and 653 normotensive control subjects. METHODS European Society Hypertension guidelines were used as a 5-stage risk score. Low risk was defined as 0 to 2 risk factors, and high risk was defined as >= 3 to 5 risk factors, diabetes, and/or history of prior CVD events. Age-and cohort-matching was done between 653 untreated subjects with WCH and 653 normotensive control subjects. RESULTS In a stepwise linear regression model, systolic WCE increased by 3.8 mm Hg (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.1 to 4.6 mm Hg) per 10-year increase in age, and was similar in low-and high-risk subjects with or without prior CVD events. Over a median 10.6-year follow-up, incidence of new CVD events was higher in 159 high-risk subjects with WCH compared with 159 cohort-and age-matched high-risk normotensive subjects (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 2.06; 95% CI: 1.10 to 3.84; p = 0.023). The HR was not significant for 494 participants with low-risk WCH and age-matched low-risk normotensive subjects. Subgroup analysis by age showed that an association between WCH and incident CVD events is limited to older (age >= 60 years) high-risk WCH subjects; the adjusted HR was 2.19 (95% CI: 1.09 to 4.37; p = 0.027) in the older high-risk group and 0.88 (95% CI: 0.51 to 1.53; p = 0.66) in the older low-risk group (p for interaction = 0.044). CONCLUSIONS WCE size is related to aging, not to CVD risk. CVD risk in most persons with WCH is comparable to age-and risk-adjusted normotensive control subjects.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Li, Yan, et al.
(författare)
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Opposing Age-Related Trends in Absolute and Relative Risk of Adverse Health Outcomes Associated With Out-of-Office Blood Pressure
- 2019
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Ingår i: Hypertension. - : Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. - 0194-911X .- 1524-4563. ; 74:6, s. 1333-1342
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Participant-level meta-analyses assessed the age-specific relevance of office blood pressure to cardiovascular complications, but this information is lacking for out-of-office blood pressure. At baseline, daytime ambulatory (n=12 624) or home (n=5297) blood pressure were measured in 17 921 participants (51.3% women; mean age, 54.2 years) from 17 population cohorts. Subsequently, mortality and cardiovascular events were recorded. Using multivariable Cox regression, floating absolute risk was computed across 4 age bands (<= 60, 61-70, 71-80, and >80 years). Over 236 491 person-years, 3855 people died and 2942 cardiovascular events occurred. From levels as low as 110/65 mm Hg, risk log-linearly increased with higher out-of-office systolic/diastolic blood pressure. From the youngest to the oldest age group, rates expressed per 1000 person-years increased (P<0.001) from 4.4 (95% CI, 4.0-4.7) to 86.3 (76.1-96.5) for all-cause mortality and from 4.1 (3.9-4.6) to 59.8 (51.0-68.7) for cardiovascular events, whereas hazard ratios per 20-mm Hg increment in systolic out-of-office blood pressure decreased (P <= 0.0033) from 1.42 (1.19-1.69) to 1.09 (1.05-1.12) and from 1.70 (1.51-1.92) to 1.12 (1.07-1.17), respectively. These age-related trends were similar for out-of-office diastolic pressure and were generally consistent in both sexes and across ethnicities. In conclusion, adverse outcomes were directly associated with out-of-office blood pressure in adults. At young age, the absolute risk associated with out-of-office blood pressure was low, but relative risk high, whereas with advancing age relative risk decreased and absolute risk increased. These observations highlight the need of a lifecourse approach for the management of hypertension.
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| 7. |
- Paige, Ellie, et al.
(författare)
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Use of Repeated Blood Pressure and Cholesterol Measurements to Improve Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction : An Individual-Participant-Data Meta-Analysis
- 2017
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Ingår i: American Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press. - 0002-9262 .- 1476-6256. ; 186:8, s. 899-907
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The added value of incorporating information from repeated blood pressure and cholesterol measurements to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk has not been rigorously assessed. We used data on 191,445 adults from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (38 cohorts from 17 countries with data encompassing 1962-2014) with more than 1 million measurements of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Over a median 12 years of follow-up, 21,170 CVD events occurred. Risk prediction models using cumulative mean values of repeated measurements and summary measures from longitudinal modeling of the repeated measurements were compared with models using measurements from a single time point. Risk discrimination (C-index) and net reclassification were calculated, and changes in C-indices were meta-analyzed across studies. Compared with the single-time-point model, the cumulative means and longitudinal models increased the C-index by 0.0040 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0023, 0.0057) and 0.0023 (95% CI: 0.0005, 0.0042), respectively. Reclassification was also improved in both models; compared with the single-time-point model, overall net reclassification improvements were 0.0369 (95% CI: 0.0303, 0.0436) for the cumulative-means model and 0.0177 (95% CI: 0.0110, 0.0243) for the longitudinal model. In conclusion, incorporating repeated measurements of blood pressure and cholesterol into CVD risk prediction models slightly improves risk prediction.
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| 8. |
- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Wood, Angela M., et al.
(författare)
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Risk thresholds for alcohol consumption : combined analysis of individual-participant data for 599 912 current drinkers in 83 prospective studies
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 391:10129, s. 1513-1523
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Low-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers without previous cardiovascular disease.Methods: We did a combined analysis of individual-participant data from three large-scale data sources in 19 high-income countries (the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD, and the UK Biobank). We characterised dose-response associations and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) per 100 g per week of alcohol (12.5 units per week) across 83 prospective studies, adjusting at least for study or centre, age, sex, smoking, and diabetes. To be eligible for the analysis, participants had to have information recorded about their alcohol consumption amount and status (ie, non-drinker vs current drinker), plus age, sex, history of diabetes and smoking status, at least 1 year of follow-up after baseline, and no baseline history of cardiovascular disease. The main analyses focused on current drinkers, whose baseline alcohol consumption was categorised into eight predefined groups according to the amount in grams consumed per week. We assessed alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality, total cardiovascular disease, and several cardiovascular disease subtypes. We corrected HRs for estimated long-term variability in alcohol consumption using 152 640 serial alcohol assessments obtained some years apart (median interval 5.6 years [5th-95th percentile 1.04-13.5]) from 71 011 participants from 37 studies.Findings: In the 599 912 current drinkers included in the analysis, we recorded 40 310 deaths and 39 018 incident cardiovascular disease events during 5.4 million person-years of follow-up. For all-cause mortality, we recorded a positive and curvilinear association with the level of alcohol consumption, with the minimum mortality risk around or below 100 g per week. Alcohol consumption was roughly linearly associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR per 100 g per week higher consumption 1.14, 95% CI, 1.10-1.17), coronary disease excluding myocardial infarction (1.06, 1.00-1.11), heart failure (1.09, 1.03-1.15), fatal hypertensive disease (1.24, 1.15-1.33); and fatal aortic aneurysm (1.15, 1.03-1.28). By contrast, increased alcohol consumption was loglinearly associated with a lower risk of myocardial infarction (HR 0.94, 0.91-0.97). In comparison to those who reported drinking >0-<= 100 g per week, those who reported drinking >100-<= 200 g per week, >200-<= 350 g per week, or >350 g per week had lower life expectancy at age 40 years of approximately 6 months, 1-2 years, or 4-5 years, respectively.Interpretation: In current drinkers of alcohol in high-income countries, the threshold for lowest risk of all-cause mortality was about 100 g/week. For cardiovascular disease subtypes other than myocardial infarction, there were no clear risk thresholds below which lower alcohol consumption stopped being associated with lower disease risk. These data support limits for alcohol consumption that are lower than those recommended in most current guidelines.
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