| 1. |
- Andrén, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Harvest models of small populations of a large carnivore using Bayesian forecasting
- 2020
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Ingår i: Ecological Applications. - : Wiley. - 1051-0761 .- 1939-5582. ; 30:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Harvesting large carnivores can be a management tool for meeting politically set goals for their desired abundance. However, harvesting carnivores creates its own set of conflicts in both society and among conservation professionals, where one consequence is a need to demonstrate that management is sustainable, evidence-based, and guided by science. Furthermore, because large carnivores often also have high degrees of legal protection, harvest quotas have to be carefully justified and constantly adjusted to avoid damaging their conservation status. We developed a Bayesian state-space model to support adaptive management of Eurasian lynx harvesting in Scandinavia. The model uses data from the annual monitoring of lynx abundance and results from long-term field research on lynx biology, which has provided detailed estimates of key demographic parameters. We used the model to predict the probability that the forecasted population size will be below or above the management objectives when subjected to different harvest quotas. The model presented here informs decision makers about the policy risks of alternative harvest levels. Earlier versions of the model have been available for wildlife managers in both Sweden and Norway to guide lynx harvest quotas and the model predictions showed good agreement with observations. We combined monitoring data with data on vital rates and were able to estimate unobserved additional mortality rates, which are most probably due to poaching. In both countries, the past quota setting strategy suggests that there has been a de facto threshold strategy with increasing proportion, which means that there is no harvest below a certain population size, but above this threshold there is an increasing proportion of the population harvested as the population size increases. The annual assessment of the monitoring results, the use of forecasting models, and a threshold harvest approach to quota setting will all reduce the risk of lynx population sizes moving outside the desired goals. The approach we illustrate could be adapted to other populations of mammals worldwide.
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| 2. |
- Andren, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Season rather than habitat affects lynx survival and risk of mortality in the human-dominated landscape of southern Sweden
- 2022
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Ingår i: Wildlife Biology. - : Wiley. - 0909-6396 .- 1903-220X. ; 2022
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Landscapes are mosaics of habitat associated with different risks and resources, including human activities, which can affect individual survival in wildlife. Different relationships between habitat characteristics and human-caused and natural mortality can result in attractive sinks. We used individual-based data from 97 Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx monitored for 160 exposure-years to link adult survival and the risk of mortality to home range habitat characteristics in the human-dominated landscape of southern Sweden. Human-caused mortality (i.e. legal hunting, poaching and vehicle accidents) dominated mortality causes (24 out of 37 deaths). We did not detect any strong effects of habitat characterises explaining the variation in mortality risk in lynx. Although the density of roe deer affects several aspects of lynx ecology, we could not detect any effects of roe deer density on lynx survival, probably because roe deer density was sufficiently high in our study area. Instead, seasonal variation was the main factor influencing mortality in lynx. Mortality was highest during the hunting season for lynx (16 February-31 March), as well as during autumn and winter, probably because lynx poaching occurs opportunistically during the hunting season for moose and roe deer. We did not find any indication that human activity created attractive sinks for lynx, since there were no contrasting patterns between human-caused and natural mortality in terms of habitat characteristics. One explanation for the limited influence of the home range characteristics may be that lynx in our study died from multiple causes. Therefore, it is less likely that one or a few habitat characteristics could explain the risk of mortality at the home range scale. There is strong evidence that lynx can coexist with humans in multi-use and human-dominated landscapes, even without large protected areas, if the management regimes are favourable.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Chapron, Guillaume
(författare)
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Anthropogenic edge effects and aging errors by hunters can affect the sustainability of lion trophy hunting
- 2023
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 13
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many large predator populations are in decline globally with significant implications for ecosystem integrity and function. Understanding the drivers of their decline is required to adequately mitigate threats. Trophy hunting is often cited as a tool to conserve large mammal populations but may also have negative impacts if not well managed. Here we use a spatially implicit, individual based model to investigate the threats posed to African lion populations by poorly managed trophy hunting and additive anthropogenic mortality such as poaching and retaliatory killing. We confirm the results of previous studies that show that lion trophy hunting can be sustainable if only older male lions are hunted, but demonstrate that hunting becomes unsustainable when populations are exposed to additional anthropogenic mortality, as is the case for most free ranging populations. We show that edge effects can be a critical determinant of population viability and populations that encompass well protected source areas are more robust than those without. Finally, errors in aging of hunted lions by professional trophy hunters may undermine the sustainability of the age-based quota setting strategies that are now widely used to manage lion trophy hunting. The effect of aging errors was most detrimental to population persistence in the >= 6 and >= 7 year-old age thresholds that are frequently used to define suitably aged lions for hunting. Resource managers should limit offtakes to older demographics and additionally take a precautionary approach when setting hunting quotas for large carnivore populations that are affected by other sources of anthropogenic mortality, such as bush-meat poaching, retaliatory killing and problem animal control.
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| 5. |
- Chapron, Guillaume, et al.
(författare)
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European Commission may gut wolf protection
- 2023
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 382:6668, s. 275-275
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 6. |
- Chapron, Guillaume
(författare)
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News selection and framing: the media as a stakeholder in human-carnivore coexistence
- 2021
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 16
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The media widely covers large carnivores and their impacts on human livelihood and plays an important role in their conservation. Yet, we know little about how species identity affects news selection, framing, accuracy and information flow. We investigated the online coverage of two cases of attacks or alleged attacks on humans alternatingly attributed to wolves and dogs in Greece and Germany. The period during which wolves were considered the primary suspects for the attacks was covered by up to two times more articles than when dogs were suspected. Wolves were presented as more likely suspects for the attacks than dogs, and wolf articles contained more inaccuracies measured as title-text mismatches. Press agencies played a significant role in the selection and dissemination of wolf news. We suggest that conservation scientists, journalists and policy makers work together to ensure an accurate representation in the media of human-carnivore coexistence and its challenges.
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| 7. |
- Chapron, Guillaume
(författare)
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Predicting the consequences of subsistence poaching on the population persistence of a non-target species of conservation concern
- 2023
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Ingår i: Biological Conservation. - 0006-3207 .- 1873-2917. ; 284
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Illegal animal hunting, a contributor to biodiversity loss, occurs along a relative selectivity spectrum from indiscriminate to highly selective. Extensive research has evaluated the impacts of selective hunting on animal populations. In contrast, the ways in which indiscriminate hunting pressure can shape populations of non-target species has not yet received comparable attention. We used empirical field data collection and simulation modelling to predict the persistence of an African lion population (Panthera leo) subject to indiscriminate hunting pressure from non-target subsistence poaching via wire snares in Murchison Falls National Park, Uganda. Our simulation modelling predicted lion population extirpation following a 50 % rise of lethal poaching pressure above the observed levels. When lethal poaching pressure doubled, the lion population was extirpated in similar to 70 % of our simulations. We then simulated reductions in lethal poaching pressure to quantify the predicted population recovery of lions. We found that the lion population increased by 40 % with reductions in lethal poaching pressure of 50 %. When we removed lethal poaching pressure entirely, the lion population nearly doubled in just 18 years. Our results demonstrate that by reducing the density of wire snares in the study area by just 2.79/km(2), the lion population transitioned from being locally extirpated in 67 % of the simulations to reaching carrying capacity inside of two lion generations. We explore how vulnerable even non-target animals are to subsistence poaching and describe the types of applied practices that can be implemented to reduce wire snaring and effectively promote the population recovery of species of conservation concern.
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| 8. |
- Chapron, Guillaume
(författare)
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Sweden threatens European biodiversity
- 2022
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 378, s. 364-364
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 9. |
- Chapron, Guillaume
(författare)
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Swiss law would weaken wildlife protection
- 2020
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 369, s. 1576-1576
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 10. |
- Chapron, Guillaume, et al.
(författare)
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Testing a global standard for quantifying species recovery and assessing conservation impact
- 2021
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Ingår i: Conservation Biology. - : Wiley. - 0888-8892 .- 1523-1739. ; 35, s. 1833-1849
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recognizing the imperative to evaluate species recovery and conservation impact, in 2012 the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) called for development of a "Green List of Species" (now the IUCN Green Status of Species). A draft Green Status framework for assessing species' progress toward recovery, published in 2018, proposed 2 separate but interlinked components: a standardized method (i.e., measurement against benchmarks of species' viability, functionality, and preimpact distribution) to determine current species recovery status (herein species recovery score) and application of that method to estimate past and potential future impacts of conservation based on 4 metrics (conservation legacy, conservation dependence, conservation gain, and recovery potential). We tested the framework with 181 species representing diverse taxa, life histories, biomes, and IUCN Red List categories (extinction risk). Based on the observed distribution of species' recovery scores, we propose the following species recovery categories: fully recovered, slightly depleted, moderately depleted, largely depleted, critically depleted, extinct in the wild, and indeterminate. Fifty-nine percent of tested species were considered largely or critically depleted. Although there was a negative relationship between extinction risk and species recovery score, variation was considerable. Some species in lower risk categories were assessed as farther from recovery than those at higher risk. This emphasizes that species recovery is conceptually different from extinction risk and reinforces the utility of the IUCN Green Status of Species to more fully understand species conservation status. Although extinction risk did not predict conservation legacy, conservation dependence, or conservation gain, it was positively correlated with recovery potential. Only 1.7% of tested species were categorized as zero across all 4 of these conservation impact metrics, indicating that conservation has, or will, play a role in improving or maintaining species status for the vast majority of these species. Based on our results, we devised an updated assessment framework that introduces the option of using a dynamic baseline to assess future impacts of conservation over the short term to avoid misleading results which were generated in a small number of cases, and redefines short term as 10 years to better align with conservation planning. These changes are reflected in the IUCN Green Status of Species Standard.
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