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- Menkveld, Albert J., et al.
(författare)
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Nonstandard Errors
- 2024
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Ingår i: JOURNAL OF FINANCE. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0022-1082 .- 1540-6261. ; 79:3, s. 2339-2390
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty-nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.
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- Figtree, Gemma A., et al.
(författare)
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Clinical Pathway for Coronary Atherosclerosis in Patients Without Conventional Modifiable Risk Factors JACC State-of-the-Art Review
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 0735-1097 .- 1558-3597. ; 82:13, s. 1343-1359
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reducing the incidence and prevalence of standard modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (SMuRFs) is critical to tackling the global burden of coronary artery disease (CAD). However, a substantial number of individuals develop coronary atherosclerosis despite no SMuRFs. SMuRFless patients presenting with myocardial infarction have been observed to have an unexpected higher early mortality compared to their counterparts with at least 1 SMuRF. Evidence for optimal management of these patients is lacking. We assembled an international, multidisciplinary team to develop an evidence-based clinical pathway for SMuRFless CAD patients. A modified Delphi method was applied. The resulting pathway confirms underlying atherosclerosis and true SMuRFless status, ensures evidence-based secondary prevention, and considers additional tests and interventions for less typical contributors. This dedicated pathway for a previously overlooked CAD population, with an accompanying registry, aims to improve outcomes through enhanced adherence to evidence-based secondary prevention and additional diagnosis of modifiable risk factors observed. (c) 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier on behalf of the American College of Cardiology Foundation. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
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- Kasliwal, Mansi M., et al.
(författare)
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Kilonova Luminosity Function Constraints Based on Zwicky Transient Facility Searches for 13 Neutron Star Merger Triggers during O3
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 905:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a systematic search for optical counterparts to 13 gravitational wave (GW) triggers involving at least one neutron star during LIGO/Virgo's third observing run (O3). We searched binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star black hole (NSBH) merger localizations with the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and undertook follow-up with the Global Relay of Observatories Watching Transients Happen (GROWTH) collaboration. The GW triggers had a median localization area of 4480 deg(2), a median distance of 267 Mpc, and false-alarm rates ranging from 1.5 to 10(-25) yr(-1). The ZTF coverage in the g and r bands had a median enclosed probability of 39%, median depth of 20.8 mag, and median time lag between merger and the start of observations of 1.5 hr. The O3 follow-up by the GROWTH team comprised 340 UltraViolet/Optical/InfraRed (UVOIR) photometric points, 64 OIR spectra, and three radio images using 17 different telescopes. We find no promising kilonovae (radioactivity-powered counterparts), and we show how to convert the upper limits to constrain the underlying kilonova luminosity function. Initially, we assume that all GW triggers are bona fide astrophysical events regardless of false-alarm rate and that kilonovae accompanying BNS and NSBH mergers are drawn from a common population; later, we relax these assumptions. Assuming that all kilonovae are at least as luminous as the discovery magnitude of GW170817 (-16.1 mag), we calculate that our joint probability of detecting zero kilonovae is only 4.2%. If we assume that all kilonovae are brighter than -16.6 mag (the extrapolated peak magnitude of GW170817) and fade at a rate of 1 mag day(-1) (similar to GW170817), the joint probability of zero detections is 7%. If we separate the NSBH and BNS populations based on the online classifications, the joint probability of zero detections, assuming all kilonovae are brighter than -16.6 mag, is 9.7% for NSBH and 7.9% for BNS mergers. Moreover, no more than <57% (<89%) of putative kilonovae could be brighter than -16.6 mag assuming flat evolution (fading by 1 mag day(-1)) at the 90% confidence level. If we further take into account the online terrestrial probability for each GW trigger, we find that no more than <68% of putative kilonovae could be brighter than -16.6 mag. Comparing to model grids, we find that some kilonovae must have M-ej M, X-lan > 10(-4), or > 30 degrees to be consistent with our limits. We look forward to searches in the fourth GW observing run; even 17 neutron star mergers with only 50% coverage to a depth of -16 mag would constrain the maximum fraction of bright kilonovae to <25%.
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- Bentley, Blair P., et al.
(författare)
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Divergent sensory and immune gene evolution in sea turtles with contrasting demographic and life histories
- 2023
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 120:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sea turtles represent an ancient lineage of marine vertebrates that evolved from terrestrial ancestors over 100 Mya. The genomic basis of the unique physiological and ecological traits enabling these species to thrive in diverse marine habitats remains largely unknown. Additionally, many populations have drastically declined due to anthropogenic activities over the past two centuries, and their recovery is a high global conservation priority. We generated and analyzed high-quality reference genomes for the leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) and green (Chelonia mydas) turtles, representing the two extant sea turtle families. These genomes are highly syntenic and homologous, but localized regions of noncollinearity were associated with higher copy numbers of immune, zinc-finger, and olfactory receptor (OR) genes in green turtles, with ORs related to waterborne odorants greatly expanded in green turtles. Our findings suggest that divergent evolution of these key gene families may underlie immunological and sensory adaptations assisting navigation, occupancy of neritic versus pelagic environments, and diet specialization. Reduced collinearity was especially prevalent in microchromosomes, with greater gene content, heterozygosity, and genetic distances between species, supporting their critical role in vertebrate evolutionary adaptation. Finally, diversity and demographic histories starkly contrasted between species, indicating that leatherback turtles have had a low yet stable effective population size, exhibit extremely low diversity compared with other reptiles, and harbor a higher genetic load compared with green turtles, reinforcing concern over their persistence under future climate scenarios. These genomes provide invaluable resources for advancing our understanding of evolution and conservation best practices in an imperiled vertebrate lineage.
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