| 1. |
- Kanai, M, et al.
(författare)
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- 2023
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 2. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 3. |
- Ebersole, Charles R., et al.
(författare)
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Many Labs 5: Testing Pre-Data-Collection Peer Review as an Intervention to Increase Replicability
- 2020
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Ingår i: Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science. - : Sage. - 2515-2467 .- 2515-2459. ; 3:3, s. 309-331
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Replication studies in psychological science sometimes fail to reproduce prior findings. If these studies use methods that are unfaithful to the original study or ineffective in eliciting the phenomenon of interest, then a failure to replicate may be a failure of the protocol rather than a challenge to the original finding. Formal pre-data-collection peer review by experts may address shortcomings and increase replicability rates. We selected 10 replication studies from the Reproducibility Project: Psychology (RP:P; Open Science Collaboration, 2015) for which the original authors had expressed concerns about the replication designs before data collection; only one of these studies had yielded a statistically significant effect (p < .05). Commenters suggested that lack of adherence to expert review and low-powered tests were the reasons that most of these RP:P studies failed to replicate the original effects. We revised the replication protocols and received formal peer review prior to conducting new replication studies. We administered the RP:P and revised protocols in multiple laboratories (median number of laboratories per original study = 6.5, range = 3-9; median total sample = 1,279.5, range = 276-3,512) for high-powered tests of each original finding with both protocols. Overall, following the preregistered analysis plan, we found that the revised protocols produced effect sizes similar to those of the RP:P protocols (Delta r = .002 or .014, depending on analytic approach). The median effect size for the revised protocols (r = .05) was similar to that of the RP:P protocols (r = .04) and the original RP:P replications (r = .11), and smaller than that of the original studies (r = .37). Analysis of the cumulative evidence across the original studies and the corresponding three replication attempts provided very precise estimates of the 10 tested effects and indicated that their effect sizes (median r = .07, range = .00-.15) were 78% smaller, on average, than the original effect sizes (median r = .37, range = .19-.50).
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| 4. |
- Kattge, Jens, et al.
(författare)
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TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access
- 2020
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 26:1, s. 119-188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Vanegas, Hernan, et al.
(författare)
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Zika RNA and Flavivirus-Like Antigens in the Sperm Cells of Symptomatic and Asymptomatic Subjects
- 2021
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Ingår i: Viruses. - : MDPI. - 1999-4915. ; 13:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Zika virus (ZIKV) RNA has been found to remain in human semen for up to one year after infection, but the presence of Flavivirus antigens in the different compartments of semen has been largely unexplored. Following the introduction of ZIKV in Nicaragua (2016), a prospective study of patients with clinical symptoms consistent with ZIKV was conducted in Leon to investigate virus shedding in different fluids. ZIKV infection was confirmed in 16 male subjects (>= 18 years of age) by RT-qPCR in either blood, saliva or urine. Of these, three provided semen samples at 7, 14, 21, 28, 60 and 180 days postsymptom onset (DPSO) for Flavivirus antigens and RNA studies. These cases were compared with 19 asymptomatic controls. Flavivirus antigens were examined by immunofluorescence (IF) using the 4G2 Mabs, and confocal microscopy was used to explore fluorescence patterns. The three (100%) symptomatic subjects and 3 (16%) of the 19 asymptomatic subjects had Flavivirus antigens and viral RNA in the spermatozoa fraction. The percentage of IF Flavivirus-positive spermatozoa cells ranged from 1.9% to 25% in specimens from symptomatic subjects, as compared with 0.8% to 3.8% in specimens from asymptomatic controls. A marked IF-pattern in the cytoplasmic droplets and tail of the spermatozoa was observed. The sperm concentrations (45 x 10(6)/mL vs. 63.5 x 10(6)/mL, p = 0.041) and the total motility percentage (54% vs. 75%, p = 0.009) were significantly lower in specimens from ZIKV-positive than in those of ZIKV-negative. In conclusion, this study demonstrated the presence of Flavivirus antigens and RNA within a time frame of 28 DPSO in sperm cells of symptomatic and asymptomatic subjects during the ZIKV epidemic. These findings have implications for public health, in terms of nonarthropod-born, silent transmission facilitated by sperm cells and potential transmission from asymptomatic males to pregnant women, with consequences to the fetus.
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| 7. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 8. |
- Bass, Gary Alan, 1979-, et al.
(författare)
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Techniques for mesoappendix transection and appendix resection: insights from the ESTES SnapAppy study
- 2023
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Ingår i: European Journal of Trauma and Emergency Surgery. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1863-9933 .- 1615-3146 .- 1863-9941. ; 49, s. 17-32
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: Surgically managed appendicitis exhibits great heterogeneity in techniques for mesoappendix transection and appendix amputation from its base. It is unclear whether a particular surgical technique provides outcome benefit or reduces complications. Material and methods: We undertook a pre-specified subgroup analysis of all patients who underwent laparoscopic appendectomy at index admission during SnapAppy (ClinicalTrials.gov Registration: NCT04365491). We collected routine, anonymized observational data regarding surgical technique, patient demographics and indices of disease severity, without change to clinical care pathway or usual surgeon preference. Outcome measures of interest were the incidence of complications, unplanned reoperation, readmission, admission to the ICU, death, hospital length of stay, and procedure duration. We used Poisson regression models with robust standard errors to calculate incident rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: Three-thousand seven hundred sixty-eight consecutive adult patients, included from 71 centers in 14 countries, were followed up from date of admission for 90days. The mesoappendix was divided hemostatically using electrocautery in 1564(69.4%) and an energy device in 688(30.5%). The appendix was amputated by division of its base between looped ligatures in 1379(37.0%), with a stapler in 1421(38.1%) and between clips in 929(24.9%). The technique for securely dividing the appendix at its base in acutely inflamed (AAST Grade 1) appendicitis was equally divided between division between looped ligatures, clips and stapled transection. However, the technique used differed in complicated appendicitis (AAST Grade 2 +) compared with uncomplicated (Grade 1), with a shift toward transection of the appendix base by stapler (58% vs. 38%; p < 0.001). While no statistical difference in outcomes could be detected between different techniques for division of appendix base, decreased risk of any [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 0.58 (0.41–0.82), p = 0.002] and severe [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 0.33 (0.11–0.96), p = 0.045] complications could be detected when using energy devices. Conclusions: Safe mesoappendix transection and appendix resection are accomplished using heterogeneous techniques. Technique selection for both mesoappendix transection and appendix resection correlates with AAST grade. Higher grade led to more ultrasonic tissue transection and stapled appendix resection. Higher AAST appendicitis grade also correlated with infection-related complication occurrence. Despite the overall well-tolerated heterogeneity of approaches to acute appendicitis, increasing disease acuity or complexity appears to encourage homogeneity of intraoperative surgical technique toward advanced adjuncts.
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| 9. |
- Bietenbeck, Jan, et al.
(författare)
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New Evidence on the Importance of Instruction Time for Student Achievement on International Assessments
- 2020
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We revisit and substantially extend the evidence on the importance of instruction time for student achievement on international assessments. We first successfully replicate the estimate of a positive effect of weekly instruction time in the seminal paper by Lavy (Economic Journal, 125, F397-F424) in a narrow sense. We then extend the analysis to data from other international student assessments and find effects that are consistently smaller in magnitude. We provide suggestive evidence that this divergence is partly due to different measurement of instruction time in the data used in the original paper. Our results suggest that differences in instruction time play a less important role than previously thought for explaining international gaps in student achievement.
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| 10. |
- Bietenbeck, Jan, et al.
(författare)
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New evidence on the importance of instruction time for student achievement on international assessments
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Econometrics. - : Wiley. - 0883-7252 .- 1099-1255. ; 38:3, s. 423-431
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We re-examine the importance of instruction time for student achievement on international assessments. We successfully replicate the positive effect of weekly instruction time in the seminal paper by Lavy (Economic Journal, 125, F397-F424) in a narrow sense. Extending the analysis to other international assessments, we find effects that are consistently smaller in magnitude. We provide evidence that this discrepancy might be partly due to a different way of measuring instruction time in the data used in the original paper. Our results suggest that differences in instruction time are less important than previously thought for explaining international gaps in student achievement.
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