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- Côté, Marianne, et al.
(författare)
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Towards modeling data-poor lakes at the regional scale using parameters from data-rich lakes and relationships to lake characteristics
- 2023
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Ingår i: Inland Waters. - : Taylor & Francis. - 2044-2041 .- 2044-205X. ; 13:3, s. 388-401
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lakes pivotal for recreation and economically relevant activities are often remote and not well studied, which hinders the application of predictive lake models for their management. Here, we provide an approach to simulate—by means of the process-oriented model MyLake—water temperature, ice cover duration, dissolved oxygen, and light attenuation in 198 data-poor lakes based on parameters obtained for a subgroup of 12 data-rich lakes and morphometric data. Specifically, the model is first calibrated using a genetic algorithm on well-studied lakes. Simple relationships between the fitted parameters and lake-catchment morphometric properties are then derived, and the results of simulations using fitted and derived parameters are compared. The loss in goodness-of-fit, expressed as root mean square error (RMSE) incurred by using estimated rather than calibrated parameters, is 0.17 °C for water temperature and 0.82 mg L−1 for dissolved oxygen. These general relationships are then used to provide the model parameters for 198 data-poor lakes distributed throughout Sweden and to model these lakes. Overall, this proof of concept allows simulating lakes selected based on their relevance for lake management rather than based on the availability of extensive field datasets.
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| 2. |
- Golub, Malgorzata, et al.
(författare)
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A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide : the ISIMIP Lake Sector
- 2022
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 15:11, s. 4597-4623
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.
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