| 1. |
- Steffen, Annika, et al.
(författare)
-
Development and Validation of a Risk Score Predicting Substantial Weight Gain over 5 Years in Middle-Aged European Men and Women
- 2013
-
Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 8:7
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. Methods: We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53 degrees 758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining >= 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). Results: Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of >= 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. Conclusion: The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.
|
|
| 2. |
- Vergnaud, Anne-Claire, et al.
(författare)
-
Adherence to the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research guidelines and risk of death in Europe : results from the European Prospective Investigation into Nutrition and Cancer cohort study
- 2013
-
Ingår i: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 0002-9165 .- 1938-3207. ; 97:5, s. 1107-1120
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: In 2007, the World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF) and the American Institute for Cancer Research (AICR) issued recommendations on diet, physical activity, and weight management for cancer prevention on the basis of the most comprehensive collection of available evidence. Objective: We investigated whether concordance with WCRF/AICR recommendations is related to risk of death. Design: The current study included 378,864 participants from 9 European countries enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. At recruitment (1992-1998), dietary, anthropometric, and lifestyle information was collected. A WCRF/AICR score, which incorporated 6 of the WCRF/AICR recommendations for men [regarding body fatness, physical activity, foods and drinks that promote weight gain, plant foods, animal foods, and alcoholic drinks (score range: 0-6)] and 7 WCRF/AICR recommendations for women [plus breastfeeding (score range: 0-7)], was constructed. Higher scores indicated greater concordance with WCRF/AICR recommendations. Associations between the WCRF/AICR score and risks of total and cause-specific death were estimated by using Cox regression analysis. Results: After a median follow-up time of 12.8 y, 23,828 deaths were identified. Participants within the highest category of the WCRF/AICR score (5-6 points in men; 6-7 points in women) had a 34% lower hazard of death (95% CI: 0.59, 0.75) compared with participants within the lowest category of the WCRF/AICR score (0-2 points in men; 0-3 points in women). Significant inverse associations were observed in all countries. The WCRF/AICR score was also significantly associated with a lower hazard of dying from cancer, circulatory disease, and respiratory disease. Conclusion: Results of this study suggest that following WCRF/AICR recommendations could significantly increase longevity.
|
|
